Eagles vs. Commanders predictions: Our writers make their picks for Week 11

The Eagles host the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. Here are our writers’ predictions for Week 11.

For the first time in a long time, the Eagles and Washington enter this matchup with among the best records in the NFL. They’ve had late-season meetings with something on the line over the last couple of decades, but only a few, and that was when teams with losing records ultimately won the NFC East. There’s football left to be played, but a win here for either could go a long way toward claiming the division. The Eagles defense has been among the best in the league since the bye, but it hasn’t faced an offense as multifaceted as the Commanders’. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a first-year revelation. He’s been efficient as a passer and has tossed only two interceptions, and adds a component on the ground and has yet to lose a fumble.

Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has devised a scheme — with help from former Eagles OC Brian Johnson — that often gets the ball out of Daniels’ hands quickly with screens and run-pass option plays, but there is also a potent vertical element to the passing game.

This should be a fun game. I see a fair amount of scoring. The Eagles defense hasn’t surrendered more than 17 points in the last five games, but it also hasn’t seen as offense as good over that span. Daniels is the first true dual-threat quarterback the Eagles will face this season and I think he’ll give them problems. Also, keep an eye out for Austin Ekeler as a kick returner. He’s dangerous. I don’t necessarily love my pick. I feel like the Eagles have figured out a lot since the bye and will play well. So let’s call this a noble loss. When was the last time Nick Sirianni had one of those?

Prediction: Commanders 30, Eagles 26

This is a big one for the Eagles, who could go up two games in the loss column against the Commanders, who have a slightly easier schedule coming home than the Eagles do. Especially given next week‘s road game against the Los Angeles Rams, who aren’t currently in the playoff picture but have wins over the Vikings and 49ers and took the first-place Lions to overtime.

Let’s forget the standings stuff, though. This is a test to see if the elements of the Eagles defense that are holding up so well are really strengths or not.

Zack Baun, who was named NFC defensive player of the week, and Nakobe Dean are giving the Eagles really solid linebacker play. The group of edge rushers has been impacting games against lesser competition. But how will those units hold up against a quarterback like Daniels who can do so much? These Eagles haven’t faced a quarterback with this skill set yet, one who can read a defense and pull back a handoff and take off on his own.

On the other side of the ball, the Commanders have been beatable on the ground. They’re allowing 142.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Sounds like the right recipe for the Eagles to continue their run-first approach and let Saquon Barkley take over.

Add the Lincoln Financial Field crowd to the mix and it feels like an Eagles win.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Commanders 20

Since the bye week, the Eagles have faced lesser competition. Still, certain aspects of the team have been dominant at times, including the defense, especially in high-leverage situations. They’ll be tasked with limiting Daniels, the rookie quarterback who has dazzled with his talents as a passer and as a runner.

The Eagles haven’t faced a quarterback quite as mobile as Daniels so far this season. The 23-year-old ranks second in the league in quarterback rushing yards before contact (342) behind Lamar Jackson. Vic Fangio would be wise to assign a defender to spy Daniels in certain situations to ensure he doesn’t use his legs to cause damage on the ground.

With Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) inactive on Thursday for a second straight game, the Commanders’ secondary is suspect, particularly at cornerback. Their run defense has been a weak spot, too, allowing an average of 142.7 rushing yards per game (No. 28 in the NFL). As long as the Eagles defense continues to play like it has coming out of the bye week and the offense generates explosive plays, I think they will continue to pull away with the lead in the NFC East.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 24

This matchup between the Eagles and Commanders has more juice than most would have anticipated going into the season thanks to a seamless transition by Daniels from college to the pros.

The Eagles’ lack of experience against quarterbacks who are plus-ones in the run game this season makes it hard to project how they‘ll fare against Washington’s quarterback-inclusive rushing attack, which could be the difference in the game. The Commanders’ passing attack is even more efficient — Daniels is second in the NFL behind only Jackson in estimated points added per dropback — but they’ve been pretty balanced most of the season between run and pass.

Between the collection of talent on the two teams and the postseason stakes, this game lives up to the prime-time billing it has received. We’ll learn plenty about both teams coming out of this one, even though Thursday night games, especially ones between division rivals, are always prone to something unpredictable. This feels like a toss-up, but the Eagles’ recent run of games gives me some confidence they’ll have enough to win at home.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Commanders 27

The Eagles host the Washington Commanders on Thursday Night Football. Here are our writers’ predictions for Week 11.

For the first time in a long time, the Eagles and Washington enter this matchup with among the best records in the NFL. They’ve had late-season meetings with something on the line over the last couple of decades, but only a few, and that was when teams with losing records ultimately won the NFC East. There’s football left to be played, but a win here for either could go a long way toward claiming the division. The Eagles defense has been among the best in the league since the bye, but it hasn’t faced an offense as multifaceted as the Commanders’. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a first-year revelation. He’s been efficient as a passer and has tossed only two interceptions, and adds a component on the ground and has yet to lose a fumble.

Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has devised a scheme — with help from former Eagles OC Brian Johnson — that often gets the ball out of Daniels’ hands quickly with screens and run-pass option plays, but there is also a potent vertical element to the passing game. Daniels has been an effective scrambler, too, so the Eagles must be conscious of containing the quarterback. I wouldn’t be surprised to see defensive coordinator Vic Fangio employ a spy on obvious passing downs. He may also want to bracket coverages toward receiver Terry McLaurin. He’s clearly Washington’s best downfield threat. McLaurin typically lines up on the right, so rookie cornerback Quinyon Mitchell will be tested.

Running backs Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler form a two-headed monster in the backfield, but Daniels has to be accounted for in the zone-read game. The Steelers did a good job of keeping Daniels in check on Sunday. He had his fewest yards rushing — 5 — and completed just 50% of his passes. The Eagles don’t have Pittsburgh’s talent on the edge, which could be an issue if Washington’s interior offensive line is able to neutralize defensive tackle Jalen Carter.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ nucleus of Georgia defenders is all too familiar with Washington QB Jayden Daniels: ‘That boy, he’s a star’

The Commanders are going to need to put up a fair amount of points because I don’t see them being able to keep the Eagles offense from scoring into at least the 20s. Dan Quinn’s defense has improved after a rough first month. But overall, the numbers aren’t great. Washington is 25th in the NFL in DVOA and 26th in EPA per play. The Commanders have struggled to stop the run and have allowed 4.85 yards per rush. Defensive tackle Daron Payne leads their front, but he’s been just OK this season. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is in his 13th season, but he runs Quinn’s old Seahawks scheme as well as anyone. I’d expect Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to establish running back Saquon Barkley on the ground, and to call zone blocking concepts that try to take Wagner out at the second level.

Moore can’t neglect the passing game, though, particularly on the outside with receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith having edges vs. cornerbacks Benjamin St-Juste and rookie Mike Sainristil. Washington added Marshon Lattimore before the trade deadline, but he’s out with a hamstring injury. St-Juste has been a penalty-making machine the last few seasons and doesn’t have the speed to keep pace with either Brown or Smith. Quinn will give him help over the top, but that’ll just help create space for others. The Eagles have struggled in pass protection vs. various blitzes and simulated pressures. Some of that falls on quarterback Jalen Hurts, but the O-line has had issues, as well. Getting left tackle Jordan Mailata back should help.

This should be a fun game. I see a fair amount of scoring. The Eagles defense hasn’t surrendered more than 17 points in the last five games, but it also hasn’t seen as offense as good over that span. Daniels is the first true dual-threat quarterback the Eagles will face this season and I think he’ll give them problems. Also, keep an eye out for Ekeler as a kick returner. He’s dangerous. I don’t necessarily love my pick. I feel like the Eagles have figured a lot out since the bye and will play well. So let’s call this a noble loss. When was the last time Nick Sirianni had one of those?

Prediction: Commanders 30, Eagles 26

It’s time to learn a lot about this Eagles team, a process that begins Thursday night vs. a Commanders team that is one of this year’s feel-good stories.

The next three games — Washington, then road games at the Rams and Ravens — are a real test. The Eagles have won five straight, but only one of those wins, against Cincinnati, has come against a team that can even sniff a postseason berth, and if the season ended today the Bengals would be out of the playoffs anyway.

This is a big one for the Eagles, who could go up two games in the loss column against the Commanders, who have a slightly easier schedule coming home than the Eagles do. Especially given next week‘s road game against the Rams, who aren’t currently in the playoff picture but have wins over the Vikings and 49ers and took the first-place Lions to overtime.

Let’s forget the standings stuff, though. This is a test to see if the elements of the Eagles defense that are holding up so well are really strengths or not.

Zack Baun, who was named NFC defensive player of the week, and Nakobe Dean are giving the Eagles really solid linebacker play. The group of edge rushers has been impacting games against lesser competition. But how will those units hold up against a quarterback like Daniels who can do so much? These Eagles haven’t faced a quarterback with this skill set yet, one who can read a defense and pull back a handoff and take off on his own.

» READ MORE: Why Vic Fangio knew Zack Baun could play inside, how Jim Mora helped the Eagles tackle, and more

Washington can move the ball on the ground with Daniels and the running back combination of Robinson and Ekeler. Daniels is a good passer, too, though his eye-popping completion percentages through his first three games have come back to earth a bit.

Until Fangio’s unit proves otherwise, it’s hard to not think the Eagles will have the upper hand when the Commanders have the football.

On the other side of the ball, the Commanders have been beatable on the ground. They’re allowing 142.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 28th in the NFL. Sounds like the right recipe for the Eagles to continue their run-first approach and let Barkley take over.

Add the Lincoln Financial Field crowd to the mix and it feels like an Eagles win.

Prediction: Eagles 26, Commanders 20

Thursday night’s game between the Commanders and the Eagles has the potential to reveal a lot about both teams.

A new era has begun in Washington — the Commanders are 7-3 through the first 10 weeks of the season just one year after going 4-6 in that same span (and finishing the season 4-13). But the Commanders’ quality of competition so far is notable. They have gone 6-1 against teams with losing records and 1-2 against teams above .500 (the lone victory coming against the Arizona Cardinals and losses against the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers).

Since the bye week, the Eagles have also faced lesser competition. Still, certain aspects of the team have been dominant at times, including the defense, especially in high-leverage situations. They’ll be tasked with limiting Daniels, the rookie quarterback who has dazzled with his talents as a passer and as a runner.

The Eagles haven’t faced a quarterback quite as mobile as Daniels so far this season. The 23-year-old ranks second in the league in quarterback rushing yards before contact (342) behind Lamar Jackson. Fangio would be wise to assign a defender to spy Daniels in certain situations to ensure he doesn’t use his legs to cause damage on the ground.

Daniels’ top option in the passing game is McLaurin, who leads the team with 711 yards and six touchdowns on 47 receptions. Outside of McLaurin, the Commanders’ receiving corps (which includes former Eagles tight end Zach Ertz) isn’t all that formidable. Robinson and Ekeler have been productive in the running game, but Daniels is arguably the bigger threat.

The Commanders defense isn’t the complementary unit to its offense as it may appear to be, ranking No. 12 in the league in points against and No. 14 in yards against. The group has been shaky in critical situations, ranking third-to-last in the league in red zone conversion percentage (70%) and No. 23 in third-down conversion rate (42.1%).

With Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) inactive on Thursday for a second straight game, the Commanders’ secondary is suspect, particularly at cornerback. Their run defense has been a weak spot, too, allowing an average of 142.7 rushing yards per game (No. 28 in the NFL). As long as the Eagles defense continues to play like it has coming out of the bye week and the offense generates explosive plays, I think the Eagles will continue to pull away with the lead in the NFC East.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 24

This matchup between the Eagles and Commanders has more juice than most would have anticipated going into the season thanks to a seamless transition by Daniels from college to the pros.

Washington’s offense jumps off the page in most efficiency metrics. It ranks second in offensive DVOA largely because of Daniels’ ability to impact the game from the pocket, extending plays, or as a runner in Kliff Kingsbury’s college-inspired offensive system. Gone are the days when schemes that borrow college concepts come with a negative connotation, and this Commanders offensive approach with Daniels helps explain why.

The Eagles’ lack of experience against quarterbacks who are plus-ones in the run game this season makes it hard to project how they‘ll fare against Washington’s quarterback-inclusive rushing attack, which could be the difference in the game. The Commanders’ passing attack is even more efficient — Daniels is second in the NFL behind only Jackson in estimated points added per dropback — but they’ve been pretty balanced most of the season between run and pass.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense should be able to put up points through multiple avenues. There’s a fair, lingering skepticism born out of Washington’s relatively lenient schedule to this point, meaning both the Eagles and Commanders will face an important test this Thursday. That skepticism for Washington is more relevant for the defense in my opinion, especially with Lattimore still out of the lineup.

Between the collection of talent on the two teams and the postseason stakes, this game lives up to the prime-time billing it has received. We’ll learn plenty about both teams coming out of this one, even though Thursday night games, especially once between division rivals, are always prone to something unpredictable. This feels like a toss-up, but the Eagles’ recent run of games gives me some confidence they’ll have enough to win at home.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Commanders 27

The Eagles play in Week 11 against the Washington Commanders. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.