Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the Commanders game in Week 8
Will the Commanders make this a close ballgame like they did in their last meeting with the Eagles?
The Eagles visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Here are the game predictions from the beat writers.
Jeff McLane
The Eagles met the Commanders just four weeks ago and needed overtime in order to prevail, 34-31. It was probably the worst performance this season by Sean Desai’s defense. His unit held Washington to just 4.9 yards a play, but it struggled on third downs (9 of 17 converted) and in the red zone (4 of 5 possessions resulted in touchdowns).
The Eagles’ No. 1-ranked run defense also surrendered its most yards on the ground (107). Brian Robinson was kept mostly in check (14 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown), but 40 of the 107 yards came on quarterback scrambles. The Eagles are unlikely to be surprised by Sam Howell’s mobility again. As for his passing, he completed 29 of 41 attempts for 290 yards and a score. He has above-average receivers in Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, but the Eagles’ four-man rush gave Howell far too much time.
» READ MORE: Sean Desai was the MVC — most valuable coach — as the Eagles defense shut down the Dolphins
Desai was thus forced to call his highest percentage of blitzes this season, which contributed to linebacker Nicholas Morrow’s three sacks. But the Eagles’ clear advantage up front vs. an offensive line that has seen its quarterback sacked at the second-highest rate in the NFL could pay off. It remains to be seen how much the recently acquired Kevin Byard will play at safety, but Reed Blankenship should provide an instant upgrade upon his return and help take away some initial reads. And if Howell has to hold the ball a click longer — he averages 2.87 seconds to throw — it could be a field day for Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat & Co.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles kept one of the stronger defensive fronts from getting to quarterback Jalen Hurts for long stretches in the first meeting. Even the mid-game substitution of Sua Opeta for injured right guard Cam Jurgens didn’t affect the protection. Opeta is coming off a tough outing against the Dolphins. On paper, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne should have a clear edge in that matchup, but each defensive tackle’s production is down this season. Still, expect center Jason Kelce to slide protection to Opeta more than left guard Landon Dickerson.
» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Dolphins film review: Why Kevin Byard was acquired and why Cam Jurgens can’t return soon enough
Defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young have offered more in terms of Washington’s pass rush, but Eagles tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata have been stalwarts for most of the season. Hurts completed 25 of 37 passes for 319 yards and two touchdowns in the Oct. 1 game. A.J. Brown was his favorite target, catching nine passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, often at the expense of Emmanuel Forbes Jr. The rookie cornerback has since been benched. His replacement in the slot, Danny Johnson, has been more consistent, but the Eagles are likely to test him with Brown, DeVonta Smith, or new addition Julio Jones.
The 3-4 Commanders are coming off a listless 14-7 loss at the New York Giants. Their offense converted just 1 of 15 third downs. They were just 1 of 3 in the red zone. And Howell was sacked six times. They can’t possibly have a repeat performance as tepid, can they? Maybe against Desai’s surging defense. But I think they’ll hang with the Eagles at home until their opponent’s superior talent eventually prevails — again.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 17
He was much-hyped, and has much delivered. With five games to go in the 2024 regular season, Vic Fangio has the Eagles defense on pace to finish as one of the top statistical units in the NFL — an incredible ascent for a group that ranked towards the bottom of the league last year. What are the secrets to his success and, in turn, the success of the Eagles’ defense? Jeff McLane zooms in on the old-school, veteran coordinator, and explains why Fangio has not only been a perfect fit, but a driving force behind the Eagles’ postseason push. Plus, in a new “Pick Six” segment, get to know right guard Mekhi Becton. Listen here.
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Olivia Reiner
On the previous episode of Eagles-Commanders, the Eagles emerged victorious on a 54-yard field goal from Jake Elliott in overtime to move to 4-0. Since then, the Eagles have started to jell in most facets of their game, going 2-1. The Commanders, meanwhile, are 1-2 since then (3-4 on the season), including last week’s 14-7 loss to the lowly Giants.
Let’s cut to the chase — the Eagles should win this game handily barring in-game injuries. They did anything but that in their last outing against the Commanders. The defense was inconsistent, allowing the Commanders to come back in the fourth quarter and tie the game. The offense converted just four of 12 third downs (33.3%). But just as they had in the first few games of the season, the Eagles found a way to win.
The Eagles have improved since that win. They’re coming off arguably their biggest win of the season, against the Dolphins, as Hurts and the offense bounced back with touchdowns after a pair of turnovers. Moreover, the defense shut down the No. 1 offense in the league, limiting it to just 10 points (not including the touchdown scored off an interception).
» READ MORE: What’s behind the Eagles’ uptick in turnovers so far this season?
The Eagles boast positional matchup advantages across the board. That said, Howell proved to have quite the arm in their last meeting, and the Eagles defense will have to do its best to limit him in the passing game. It will help that they’re expected to get back Blankenship, who missed Week 7 with a ribs injury. Plus, Sunday could mark the debut of Byard, even in a limited role. If Hurts can stay out of harm’s way as he deals with a left knee injury, the Eagles should be able to outpace the Commanders offense.
While nickel cornerback Bradley Roby may not be ready to play, seeing as he was a non-participant Wednesday and Thursday, the Eagles had success last week rotating defensive back Josiah Scott, cornerback Eli Ricks, and inside linebacker Zach Cunningham in the slot. Given the Eagles’ recent improvements and the fact that most of their starters are expected to be available, this should be another win.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 16
Josh Tolentino
The Commanders are off to a slow start this season, but this team always seems to play the Eagles tough. If the Eagles overlook them even slightly, they could be facing an early deficit.
Although the defense had a so-so performance the last time these two teams met, the pass rush has an opportunity to explode. Howell has been sacked on nearly 14% of his drop-backs. If the Eagles are able to stop the run in the first quarter, Howell could be in for a long day. Sweat is known primarily for his pass-rush ability, but he has been a force in stopping the run and is playing the best football of his career. Expect savvy veteran and new safety Byard to slot in seamlessly with a secondary that is also getting Blankenship back from a ribs injury. The improbable safety duo from Middle Tennessee State could patrol the back end for the foreseeable future.
On offense, the self-inflicted wounds need to stop. The Eagles have the potential to be a juggernaut, but turnovers have slowed their momentum at multiple points of the season. Hurts’ next interception will tie his career high, nine. The 25-year-old has acknowledged he needs to take better care of the football. The Commanders’ front seven is always a tough bunch, so Hurts’ legs and pocket awareness should be tested.
The Eagles need to set the tempo early, assert their physicality, and protect the rock. It’ll be a bonus if they’re able to return home victorious — without any additional injuries.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 17
EJ Smith
There hasn’t been significant change on the Washington side since these two teams faced off four weeks ago.
Brown’s dominant performance turned out to be the catalyst for rookie cornerback Forbes’ eventual benching, but otherwise this Washington team is much the same, with two losses to subpar teams in three weeks.
On the Eagles’ side, there’s reason to believe they’ve made some headway since the ugly 34-31 overtime win. The defensive secondary has played much better and now has Byard poised to make his Eagles debut.
With James Bradberry back on the outside and a committee of young defensive backs in the slot, there’s reason to believe the Eagles will be able to hold up enough on the back end to let the pass rush get to Howell, who has been sacked a league-high 40 times this year. Jordan Davis’ lingering hamstring injury could complicate things, particularly against Washington’s rushing offense. An early lead can go a long way toward mitigating that, but the Commanders’ best hope may be to play ball control the way they did last year against the Eagles.
Washington’s defense has done a nice job of limiting lesser competition. There’s no doubt that Hurts will play, but it’s fair to wonder if his usage in the run game might change while he’s dealing with this knee injury. His running ability has been a significant part of the team’s offensive success, so there may be some growing pains learning to live without it.
My guess is this is a lower-scoring game than the first meeting, but a comfortable win for the Eagles.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Washington 14
The Eagles visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from FedEx Field.