A few numbers to ease an Eagles fan’s mind ahead of the NFC championship game against Washington
The Commanders? This is an opponent the Eagles should beat. Let these stats soothe your soul with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line Sunday.
Last week was the boss stage. The Rams came to town with a potential Hall of Fame coach, a potential Hall of Fame quarterback, and a well-coached defense. They also had a snowstorm that leveled the playing field more than I had anticipated.
The Commanders? This is an opponent the Eagles should beat. No rookie quarterback has ever made it to a Super Bowl as a starter. Granted, few rookie quarterbacks have ever done what Jayden Daniels did to the Lions last week (299 yards, two touchdowns, 51 rushing yards). But the Eagles have a team that is built to avoid letdowns.
» READ MORE: Brian Johnson took the blame for last year’s Eagles. Now, he’s a ‘heavy hitter’ with the high-powered Commanders.
A few numbers to soothe your soul.
The Eagles have scored points on their last seven Jalen Hurts-led drives against the Commanders dating back to the second quarter of Week 11. Five of them have resulted in touchdowns.
I’m not counting Hurts’ kneel-down at the end of the Eagles’ 26-18 win in Week 11. I am counting the second drive of their 36-33 loss in Week 16, which Hurts left after four plays with the Eagles on the Washington 21-yard-line. If those parameters are acceptable, then the Eagles scored on their last five drives of Week 11 and their first two drives of Week 16 before Hurts missed the rest of the game with a concussion.
Even if we count the Kenny Pickett possessions, the Eagles gained at least 34 yards on 13 of their 23 drives against Washington this season. They gained at least 44 yards on 10 of them and at least 65 yards on six of them.
This Commanders defense is not good. It’s quite bad, actually. Washington is one of 16 teams in the last 15 years to have six games in which an opponent rushed for more than 175 yards. In four of those games, they allowed 200-plus rushing yards, including both of the ones they played against the Eagles.
Everyone is killing former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for his late-game play-calling. Deservedly so in the case of the interception that Jameson Williams threw on an end-around with 12:13 left. But let’s not forget that the Lions gained 521 yards.
The Eagles have the NFL postseason’s best must-have short-yardage defense, and it isn’t particularly close.
In fact, one can argue that the biggest reason the Eagles are in the NFC championship game is their short-yardage defense. Last week, the Rams had six plays on third and short or fourth and short. They converted on one of them.
Two of the biggest plays in the game came in the second quarter.
Third and 2 on the Eagles' 11-yard-line, 13:33 to go before halftime: C.J. Gardner-Johnson stuffs Kyren Williams for a loss of 1 to force a field goal.
Third and 1 on the Rams’ 44-yard-line, 6:05 to go before halftime: Josh Sweat stuffs Williams for a loss of 2 to force a punt.
In both situations, a new set of downs for the Rams easily could have led to additional points. The entire complexion of the game could have changed before the snow began accumulating.
» READ MORE: Moro Ojomo gave ‘Inner Excellence’ to A.J. Brown. The lesser-known Eagle has his own motivational story.
In their first two playoff games, the Eagles defense came up with stops on 8-of-14 (57.1%) must-have short-yardage downs. I’m defining that as third or fourth down with 3 or fewer yards to go. None of the 13 other playoff teams have success rates of better than 50%.
On those 14 must-have short-yardage plays, the Eagles allowed an average of just 0.6 yards per play, with an average to-go yardage of 2.1. In other words, their opponents gained just 30% of the yards they needed for a first down, on average.
The Eagles’ defensive advantage is especially overwhelming when you combine it with their offensive performance in the same situations. Against the Packers and Rams, the offense gained a first down on 6-of-9 (66.7%) of their must-have short-yardage downs.
In 19 games this season, Eagles opponents are converting 46.4% of their must-have short-yardage downs. I’m defining that as third or fourth down with three or fewer yards to go. That’s the seventh-lowest percentage in the league. On running plays, Eagles opponents are 28-for-47 (59.6%), the fourth-lowest conversion percentage in the league, behind the Ravens, Vikings, and Seahawks and just ahead of the Bills, Broncos, and Titans.
That’s an interesting peer group. If you were doing a free word association with the prompt “teams who usually have good defenses,” you’d probably rattle off many of those names. Only the Steelers are missing. That’s the class the Eagles are in right now.
Home teams are 17-5 in conference championship games since 2014.
Three of those five losses have been in overtime. Neither here nor there. Just interesting. The Ravens lost at home to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC title game. The Chiefs lost to the Bengals in 2022 and the Patriots in 2019. The Saints lost to the Rams in 2019. Historically, the higher seed has a huge advantage in this game.
» READ MORE: The Commanders plan to treat Jalen Hurts like a running back — and ‘hit him that way’
Same goes for big favorites. At last check Friday, the Eagles were holding steady at -6. Since 2003, favorites of six or more points are 13-3 straight up. They’ve won seven of their last eight games, the lone being exception that Chiefs loss to the Bengals in 2022 (Kansas City was a seven-point favorite, per Pro-Football-Reference.com).
Past results are no guarantee of future success. Still, if you are an Eagles fan, you have to like the odds.