Regrading the Eagles: Is the offensive scheme helping Jalen Hurts enough?

Regrading the Eagles’ 33-13 loss to the Cowboys upon reviewing the coaches’ film (original instant grades here):

Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (4.9%), according to Next Gen Stats’ player-tracking data, and yet he is second to last among 38 qualifying quarterbacks in expected completion percentage (61.6%).

In other words, the Eagles offense isn’t giving Hurts enough of the “layup throws” that other offenses like the 49ers and Dolphins give quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa. At least, that’s what the analytics suggest.

There could be other reasons for the statistical dichotomy. Perhaps Hurts’ top receivers aren’t creating enough space on their own. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith average 2.5 and 2.8 yards of separation, per NGS, numbers that currently rank them in the bottom third of the league.

Or maybe Hurts and the play calls are forcing too many throws to Brown, Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert. They were the only three to receive targets from the quarterback in the Cowboys loss.

But just based upon the eye test alone this season, it does seem as if Nick Sirianni’s offense isn’t doing enough to scheme receivers open for uncontested passes and for yards after the catch. (Hurts ranks 24th in the NFL in YAC.)

While Hurts’ CPOE (64%) and ECP (2.5) numbers and relative ranking to other quarterbacks in 2022 suggested a similar premise, the difference wasn’t as great. And the film this season increasingly shows that Sirianni’s scheme and/or offensive coordinator Brian Johnson’s play calling hasn’t given their quarterback enough answers, particularly against the blitz.

But Hurts, upon review, isn’t apparently seeing the field like he was last season either.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ Nick Sirianni still confident in his coordinators and in-game management

The Eagles don’t often utilize pre-snap motion or motion at the snap. This is a philosophical preference. Sirianni has found other ways to stress defenses, particularly with Hurts as a plus-one factor in the run game, and has enough talent around the quarterback in the passing game.

But the offense can look static at times. Motion can not only give Hurts pre-snap information, but it presents to defenders one more variable to consider.

On this early third down, the Eagles didn’t utilize any motion. The Cowboys rushed five and played single-high man coverage. Hurts got decent protection, stepped up, and threw downfield to Brown (No. 11). His throw was accurate and hit his receiver in the hands. But it wasn’t a high-percentage attempt.

Hurts could have thrown to Smith (No. 6) on the short “in” route and may have had enough for the first down, or least be close enough to go for it on fourth down. So there were multiple factors here that led to the Eagles having to settle for a field goal.

Later in the second half, Hurts faced a six-man pressure on third down. Running back Kenneth Gainwell (No. 14) was a touch late in picking up the “A” gap blitzer, and Hurts may have unnecessarily bailed and threw off his back foot to the again in-breaking Smith.

But his only built-in immediate answer against the blitz was Smith. Brown, surprisingly, ran few slant and crossing routes at Dallas — at least on his 13 targets. He did run a short crosser on a key fourth-and-8 try late in the third quarter.

» READ MORE: How the Eagles failed on fourth down against the Cowboys

Sirianni’s gamble was risky considering the distance to gain. But Johnson didn’t choose a play in which the first read ran a route beyond the marker. The mesh concept call was a good one vs. man coverage. But Smith and Brown didn’t run their routes close enough to execute the “rub.”

The Eagles had hat-for-hat blocking against the six-man rush, but the protection wasn’t sound and Hurts had to hurry his throw. Smith caught the pass and was tackled immediately.

It was one of 10 targets for the receiver. After Smith and Brown, Goedert saw Hurts’ other four pass attempts. Sirianni, of course, wants to run his pass offense through his three best receivers. But he also doesn’t want to become predictable, and in turn, place too much stress upon a few individuals.

Brown and Smith had two costly fumbles and in the latter’s case, several difficult would-be catches that he failed to pull in.

» READ MORE: Fumble-itis spreads to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, dooming the Eagles’ comeback chances at Dallas

On this first down in the second half, it seemed, Hurts didn’t need to force a pass to Smith. With Dallas in a quarters zone, the receiver’s 18-yard out was essentially covered. Tight end Grant Calcaterra (No. 81) — who has yet to see a pass come his way the entire season — released after a chip block and might have been the more appropriate target considering the situation.

Is two games enough of a sample to be concerned about the pass rush? While the Eagles weren’t matching last year’s productivity through the first 11 games this season, they were generating enough pressure to keep scoring relatively low and to offset the deficiencies in the back seven.

But the 49ers and Cowboys games were different stories. Should the Eagles just tip their caps to two of the better offenses in the NFL for having their numbers? Should they chalk their tepid performance up to having to face opponents with an extra three days of rest?

Or is there something lacking in the pass rush that is now being exposed in December? Through the first 11 games, the Eagles pressured quarterbacks on 48.4% of their drops, per Pro Football Focus. In the last two games, that percentage has dropped to 41.2.

Defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, who got off to hot starts this season, don’t have a quarterback hit or sack in the last four games. Are the Eagles’ last two No. 1 draft picks hitting a wall?

» READ MORE: Another embarrassing effort shows the Eagles need a shake-up. It’s on Nick Sirianni to provide it.

Against San Francisco, defensive coordinator Sean Desai blitzed more than he has the entire season, sending extra rushers at quarterback Brock Purdy on 10 of 31 drops. But the 49ers were ready and Purdy completed 10 of 10 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns.

Desai dialed back on the blitz vs. the Cowboys — at least initially — and tried to get to quarterback Dak Prescott (No. 4) mostly with a four-man rush. But the Eagles often couldn’t get home and Prescott was able to extend plays with his legs.

Desai then tried to simulate pressure. On this third down, he had defensive end Josh Sweat (No. 94) stand up like a “Joker” and delay his rush. But the Cowboys’ O-line wasn’t fooled, and Prescott had the ball out to receiver CeeDee Lamb (No. 88) on a corner route well before Sweat turned the corner.

The Eagles struggled to marry their rush with their coverage. On yet another converted third down in the first half, Desai tried to simulate pressure. He dropped edge rusher Nolan Smith (No. 3) and rushed off-ball linebacker Shaquille Leonard (No. 53).

The coverage was Tampa 2, and there was all kinds of space behind Smith — far too much for the rookie to cover. Prescott easily hit tight end Jake Ferguson (No. 87) on a seam route and the Cowboys had an explosive gain.

On this third down, Desai sent only three rushers and had outside linebacker Haason Reddick (No. 7) apparently spy Prescott, who had only scrambled once until that point. With the Eagles’ outside cornerbacks in man coverage, Prescott had plenty of time to go to receiver Brandin Cooks (No. 3), who was matched up against rookie Kelee Ringo (No. 22).

Desai tried a simulated pressure again later on the same drive and nearly got linebacker Zach Cunningham (No. 52) — not historically a great rusher — to Prescott. But with the coverage shaded to Lamb the Cowboys had Cooks matched up solo vs. cornerback James Bradberry (No. 24).

Bradberry played outside leverage expecting help from post safety Kevin Byard (No. 31). But he allowed Cooks too much separation and Byard — who initially followed Prescott’s eyes to Lamb — didn’t get over in time.

Desai adjusted at the half and forced the Dallas offense to go three-and-out on its first possession and got a Fletcher Cox strip sack that Jalen Carter returned for a touchdown on the next series.

With the score now, 24-13, the Eagles again got the Cowboys to third down — this time with six yards to gain. Desai dialed up his first zero blitz. Byard had a free run to the quarterback and safety Sydney Brown (No. 21) had tight man coverage on Ferguson — Prescott’s hot read.

But the quarterback had clear vision to his tight end and his ball placement was perfect. The Cowboys would eventually kick a field goal to expand their lead to 27-13.

Desai would try other formulas for getting to Prescott and even had Sweat rush as a defensive tackle for one snap.

“We were just trying anything at that point,” Sweat said after the game.

It didn’t work either.