Eagles-Cowboys predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for Week 16

The Eagles can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win at Dallas, but they’ll have to do it without Jalen Hurts as Gardner Minshew gets the nod.

Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew throws the football against the Dallas Cowboys in January.Read moreYONG KIM / Staff Photographer

by Jeff McLane and EJ Smith

Published Dec. 22, 2022, 1:38 p.m. ET

The Eagles will visit the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday. Here are the game predictions from our Eagles beat writers for Week 16.

Jeff McLane

Gardner Minshew gets his first start since last season’s finale against the Cowboys, but the quarterback will have a much better cast surrounding him than he did in that 51-26 drubbing. While the Eagles offense has been built around Jalen Hurts’ duality, the system is versatile enough to be tweaked to Minshew’s skill set. And with five Pro Bowlers playing alongside him, he just needs to be a point guard and distribute the ball to ball catchers like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, or hand off to Miles Sanders. Goedert, who returns from a five-game absence, and Sanders had two of their best games with Minshew under center vs. the New York Jets last season. But Brown, Smith and Quez Watkins should still get theirs against a shorthanded Dallas secondary. No. 1 cornerback Trevon Diggs is dangerous, but his counterpart Anthony Brown is out, as is slot Jourdan Lewis.

Minshew will need protection, of course, as the Cowboys have one of the best pass-rushing defenses in the NFL with Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence and Co. Nick Sirianni and his offensive coaches neutralized Parsons early in the first game by simply leaving him unblocked and having Hurts read him. But Minshew isn’t the same threat on the ground, which means that tackles Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata will share most of the responsibility for containing the chess-piece-like Parsons. Johnson kept him in check in October until he suffered a concussion late in the first half.

If Minshew is to be an on-paper downgrade at quarterback, the Cowboys have upgraded at the position since the first meeting with starter Dak Prescott back and backup Cooper Rush back to the sideline. Prescott has been inconsistent since his return, though. His interception rate is last in the league among qualifying quarterbacks. If the Eagles defense can keep running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott from large chunks on the ground, they’ll force Dallas into obvious passing situations. They’ve done the above in the previous three games and have recorded 19 sacks partly as a result. Cowboys quarterbacks have been among the least pressured in the NFL. But the matchup of Haason Reddick vs. the aging Tyron Smith and Jason Peters rotation at right tackle could favor the Eagles. CeeDee Lamb has been a tough cover for most secondaries, but there’s a significant drop-off from the Pro Bowl receiver and the rest of the group. It may make sense for Jonathan Gannon to employ a game plan similar to the one he used to shut down Justin Jefferson in Week 2.

The Cowboys are a talented bunch, but they’re mistake-prone and tied for fifth in penalties. Coach Mike McCarthy has also been known to lose a game or several more with his game management. While the Hurts absence obviously hurts, ahem, Minshew is more than capable and brings an element of surprise coaches, with smart game planning, can exploit. Dallas has a lot more on the line than the Eagles, who are virtually assured the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, and that can be a motivating factor. But I think Sirianni and his players still believe they have something to prove — even if most objective observers know they really don’t.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 24

EJ Smith

In a way, the absence of Hurts this Saturday could improve the Eagles’ chances in Dallas.

The Eagles won’t admit it, but the potential of a playoff matchup against the Cowboys looms large going into the teams’ second meeting. There is a good chance Dallas ends up heading back to the Linc in about a month, and an even greater chance the Eagles’ coaching staff is aware of that possibility. If Hurts were at the controls, it’d be easy to see why Sirianni and Shane Steichen, needing just one win in the next three weeks to secure the No. 1 seed, would avoid emptying out their call sheets.

With Minshew, the staff can throw caution to the wind a bit more. Just like the Eagles defensive staff has been chewing on Cooper Rush film from the Eagles’ Week 6 win over Dallas this week, the Eagles can now muddy the picture with 60 minutes of Minshew Mania in the event there’s a grudge match.

Gamesmanship aside, there’s reason to believe Minshew can be productive in the Eagles offense. Hurts is essential to what the group does, but there are plenty of offensive staples that are quarterback-agnostic: The screens to Goedert, slant routes to Brown, the run-pass-options that require opposing edge defenders to cover the flat, etc.

Removing Hurts will likely lead to fewer perfectly placed deep shots and will undoubtedly change the Eagles’ advantageous numbers in the run game, but there are plenty of matchups to exploit. Dallas has dealt with a rash of injuries at cornerback and its secondary struggled to match up with Jacksonville last week. Expect the Eagles to test reserve outside cornerback Kelvin Joseph, who was torched multiple times against the Jags. Parsons is a game-wrecking pass rusher, but the Eagles had success making him the conflict player in option plays in the first matchup and match up as well as any team can hope to with Johnson and Mailata.

On the other side, the Cowboys’ offensive line has been statistically solid this season but struggled against Jacksonville while rotating the former All-Pro tackle Smith and all-time Eagles great Peters at right tackle. Pressuring Prescott will be paramount to the Eagles’ success, but generating pressure should be doable. Lamb is dangerous, but the Eagles secondary should be able to force Prescott into the tight-window throws he’s been so inclined to make this season.

This figures to be a close game, but the Eagles have enough matchup advantages to suggest there could be some Minshew magic on Christmas Eve.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 24

Josh Tolentino

With the NFC East currently at its heightened state, it’s a shame the Eagles and Cowboys won’t face each other — at least during the regular season — with both of their starting quarterbacks under center. After Prescott missed the first matchup between these pair of teams, Hurts is now slated to miss Saturday’s game with a sprained shoulder. With Hurts sidelined, the Eagles will turn to Minshew.

Coincidentally, Minshew’s most recent start was Week 18 of the 2021 season against ... the Cowboys. It’s worth noting the Eagles were playing with a handful of reserves during that regular-season finale that Dallas won 51-26, but Minshew had an underwhelming performance; he completed 19 of 33 passes for 186 yards with two touchdowns with one interception. This time around, Minshew takes control of the keys to a high-octane offense led by stud wide receivers Brown and DeVonta Smith. He’ll also have Goedert back in the mix following Goedert’s five-game absence with his own shoulder injury. The passing game is supplemented by the freshly-named Pro Bowl running back Sanders, along with one of the league’s top offensive lines (three Pro Bowl selections, two Pro Bowl alternates). After the coaching staff neglected Sanders this past Sunday game at Chicago, the Eagles would be wise to get him involved early against Dallas. The Cowboys present a tough challenge defensively, but Minshew should have opportunities to air it out. From a play-calling perspective, Sirianni might not need to necessarily worry about emptying the cupboard with Minshew under center as opposed to Hurts.

Saturday presents an opportunity for the Eagles to clinch both the division and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. While the Week 16 showdown is being prominently elevated given the clinching circumstances, the reality is that the Eagles need to win just one of their final three games. Following their contest with the Cowboys on Christmas Eve, the Eagles return for a pair of home games against the Saints and Giants to close out the season. In all likelihood, they’ll have the conference’s top seed locked up at some point over the next couple of weeks. However, that clinching moment might not arrive this weekend.

Prediction: Cowboys 24, Eagles 21

Inquirer Eagles beat reporters EJ Smith and Josh Tolentino preview the team’s Week 16 game against the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday at 3 p.m. Watch at Inquirer.com/EaglesGameday