Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the Dolphins game in Week 7

by Jeff McLane, Josh Tolentino, Olivia Reiner, and EJ Smith
Published Oct. 20, 2023, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Eagles host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night. Here are the game predictions from the beat writers.

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Jeff McLane

Josh Tolentino

Olivia Reiner

EJ Smith

Jeff McLane

The Dolphins may have one of the speediest teams in NFL history. They have all five of the top speeds clocked from ballcarriers this season split among three players: wide receiver Tyreek Hill and running backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Hill, of course, isn’t just a ground burner. He leads the league with 814 receiving yards — the most ever through six games. Achane averages a silly 12.1 yards a carry, but luckily for the Eagles, he’s out with a knee injury. The Dolphins still have Mostert, who’s averaging a measly — read: sarcasm — 5.7 yards a carry. I haven’t yet mentioned receiver Jaylen Waddle, but the point should be clear: The Eagles defense will have its hands full trying to keep pace not only with the Dolphins’ speed, but also with coach Mike McDaniel’s breakneck version of the Kyle Shanahan offense.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa may be categorized by some as just the facilitator of a scheme that stresses defenses with an intricate zone run blocking scheme that helps set up play-action and the most motion in the NFL. But he’s much more than that. The main thing that has kept Tagovailoa in check the last two years has been the threat of another head injury. But if he can get the protection he needs from an offensive line that’s good — not great — then it could be a long day for Sean Desai’s battered secondary. Getting back cornerback Darius Slay, who missed last week, will help. But Slay and his counterpart on the outside, James Bradberry, will likely need safety assistance to keep Hill & Co. from explosive plays. The problem with that is twofold: No. 1, top safety Reed Blankenship (ribs) will be out. And No. 2, a split safety-heavy coverage plan will put additional stress on the Eagles’ linebackers.

There’s also the matter of who will play in the slot, especially when Hill lines up inside, which he does often. The position has been an issue after Avonte Maddox’s season-ending injury, and now Bradley Roby (shoulder) is sidelined, which leaves Desai with a few options, none of them super appealing. He could split time between Josiah Scott, who was just re-signed, and safety Sydney Brown, who is coming back from a hamstring injury. Or he could move Bradberry back inside and have Josh Jobe and/or Eli Ricks on the outside. Of course, if Brown is in the slot, that leaves Desai with just the not-very-fast Terrell Edmunds and recently-converted Mekhi Garner at safety.

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This may sound dire for the Eagles, but they still have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and could use their overall physicality to slow the Dolphins’ jet-setters. They also have, on paper, an offense that can keep pace with Miami. Nick Sirianni and Brian Johnson got away from the ground game in last week’s loss at the New York Jets, but I don’t see that being the case here. They’re not going to shy away from passing the ball early, especially when they have advantages on the outside with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. Xavien Howard and Eli Apple. I’m curious to see how many snaps Julio Jones plays. The Eagles pulled the trigger now for a reason. But the Dolphins don’t have a great run defense, partly by design. Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio wants to lure offenses into handing off, especially ones as explosive as the Eagles.

Fangio has employed more single-high safety coverages and blitzes than he has in the past. Jalen Hurts should have opportunities down the field as long as he has time. And with right tackle Lane Johnson expected to play despite a tender ankle, the quarterback should have the three-plus seconds he’ll need to work through his reads. Assuming Hurts doesn’t get another case of happy feet like he did last week when he left the pocket too early as the game progressed.

» READ MORE: Regrading the Eagles vs. Jets: Film review shows Jalen Hurts’ shaky pocket presence

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One other factor to consider would be the field conditions at the Linc. There was a soccer game played there on Tuesday and Temple hosted SMU in football on Friday night. There is also rain in the forecast for Saturday. It’s possible that a less-than-ideal track could slow Miami. But any difference would likely be marginal. And I just can’t get past the personnel issues the Eagles defense will have on the back end when predicting this game. So let’s go with the Dolphins in a shootout and a reassessment of the Eagles’ needs ahead of the trade deadline.

Prediction: Dolphins 37, Eagles 31

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This contest has all the makings for a potential shootout. A pair of dynamic quarterbacks with storied history between Tagovailoa and Hurts, the Nos. 1- and 2-ranked wide receivers in Hill and A.J. Brown, and plenty of other star power shared across both sidelines. The Eagles have said publicly they plan to counter the Dolphins’ speed and quickness with physicality and aggression. McDaniel has the Dolphins scoring and putting up yards at a record pace. Time will tell whether this type of production is sustainable. If the Eagles aspire to secure the victory in prime time, they’ll likely need to force multiple turnovers. During last week’s defeat to the Jets, the Eagles lost the takeaway battle, 4-0.

» READ MORE: Nakobe Dean didn’t return from injury as a starter, but Sean Desai has confidence in a rotation of Eagles LBs

It’s worth noting the Dolphins have played only one team with a winning record: the Buffalo Bills. During that contest, the Bills flattened the Dolphins with a 48-20 victory in Buffalo. Meanwhile, all five of their victories have come against opponents — Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers — with losing records at a combined 5-24 mark. Desai has proved he’s capable of making in-game adjustments; see Week 5 win over the Los Angeles Rams. Will he be able to win this expected chess match? He hasn’t benefited from any continuity with personnel, so his calls and disguises will need to be stellar. Tagovailoa has done a terrific job with quickly getting rid of the football, but if the Eagles’ vaunted pass rush can get home, that could force the Dolphins quarterback into rushed decisions.

With Hurts under center, the Eagles haven’t lost back-to-back games since Weeks 6 and 7 of the 2021 season — exactly two years ago. The team has won plenty during that span, and Hurts, of all people involved, will be motivated to rebound from his three-interception outing.

Prediction: Eagles 33, Dolphins 31

The matchup between the 5-1 Eagles and the 5-1 Dolphins on Sunday has drawn plenty of national interest leading up to the game. It will feature former Alabama teammates in Hurts and Tagovailoa, two of the best in the league at their position.

But who has the edge? The speedy Dolphins offense ranks atop the league in yards and in scoring, boasting the third-best point differential in the league (67). By comparison, the Eagles (who rank fifth in points and second in yards) are eighth (31). Tagovailoa has been particularly impressive, leading the league in passing yards (1,876), tied for the lead in passing touchdowns (14), and possessing the best passer rating (114.1).

It helps that he’s throwing to talented receivers — Hill leads the league in receiving yards (814) and touchdowns (six), while Waddle has reeled in 24 receptions for 296 yards and two touchdowns. Mostert has scored a league-high 66 points. The Eagles are catching a break with Achane (460 yards, five touchdowns in four games) on injured reserve with a knee issue.

How can the Eagles defense stop the Dolphins? They have one of the best defensive fronts in the league, but their secondary is banged up, headlined by Blankenship being ruled out on Friday with a rib injury. Safety Sydney Brown, who is making his return to action after a three-game layoff due to a hamstring injury, could be starting alongside Edmunds, and the Eagles could turn to Scott to chip in either at safety or slot cornerback.

» READ MORE: ‘Couldn’t hear my thoughts’: Eagles’ Terrell Edmunds had a ball watching the Phillies for his first MLB game

The Dolphins defense pales in comparison to the offense (26th in scoring, 20th in yards). If the Eagles offense shows up better than it did Sunday against the New York Jets, it has an opportunity to prove that it’s making progress. But it’s hard to pick against the top-scoring offense in the league going up against a secondary heavily impacted by injury.

Prediction: Dolphins 35, Eagles 28

Things are about to get real for the Eagles.

Desai’s secondary has been able to overcome constant turnover due to injury pretty well the first six games of the season, but Miami presents a daunting challenge for the banged-up group. Miami’s receiving corps, led by Hill and Waddle, is talented and blazing enough to give even the most capable secondaries nightmares.

The Dolphins speed should force the Eagles into plenty of two-high shells, which will open up the run game for Mostert, another freakishly fast skill player McDaniel has to work with. Speaking of McDaniel, the Eagles can expect to see a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and misdirection, which will be quite a challenge for a secondary with so few options remaining at slot cornerback and safety.

» READ MORE: ‘Two alphas’: How Jalen Hurts’ QB battle with Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama helped shape the Eagles star

The slot in particular looks dubious. Roby looked like the answer replacing Maddox after signing with the team a few weeks ago but a shoulder injury leaves them back to the drawing board yet again. Whether it’s Scott, Sydney Brown, Ricks, or Jobe, there will be inevitable matchups against Hill or Waddle in the slot for the Dolphins to exploit. According to Pro Football Focus, Hill lines up inside on 33.9% of his snaps and Waddle spends 26.5% of his time there.

All of this to say, there’s reason to believe the Dolphins will continue putting up video-game numbers this Sunday at the Linc. The Eagles’ pass rush may be able to limit the number of deep shots Tagovailoa is able to take, but now might be a good time to mention Tagovailoa has the quickest time to throw in the NFL this season at 2.37 seconds. The Dolphins have the perimeter speed and the offensive scheme to get guys open in space and let them wreak havoc after the catch. The Eagles will have their hands full.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles feel poised for a bounce-back game after committing four turnovers in MetLife Stadium last Sunday. Miami’s defense ranks 27th in defensive efficiency by FTN Fantasy, which measures defense-adjusted value over average. Even if Howard is able to play after being limited all week with a knee injury, the Eagles have favorable matchups on the outside.

The Eagles should be able to run the ball against Miami as well, although this has the makings of a shootout that will require both teams to keep their foot on the gas.

Perhaps the field conditions at the Linc after a Germany vs. Mexico soccer friendly earlier this week and Temple home game on Saturday slow down the Dolphins, otherwise the Eagles may drop two straight games.

Prediction: Dolphins 38, Eagles 34

The Eagles host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.