Eagles roundtable: What trades might Howie Roseman make during the NFL draft?

If history is any indication, the Eagles won’t leave the first night of the NFL draft with the same picks they took into it.

General manager Howie Roseman has earned a reputation as one of the most active executives in terms of draft-day trades, and this year should be no exception, with the team holding the 10th and 30th overall picks on Night 1.

What trade options will Roseman be weighing, though? Inquirer Eagles beat reporter EJ Smith and NFL draft writer Devin Jackson dive into possible targets, compensation, and precedent in a roundtable:

EJ Smith: I’ve been staring at first-round projections for months now, and the more I look at how things might play out, the more I feel like the Eagles just won’t stay at No. 10 overall. So, I figured we could spend some time really diving into what a draft-night trade might look like. How do you feel about their options at 10 versus a potential trade?

Devin Jackson: To me, the options at 10 seems like it will come down to Jalen Carter potentially falling to No. 10 overall or an edge rusher of their choice, whether it be Tyree Wilson, Nolan Smith, or Lukas Van Ness. With quarterbacks expected to go within the top five, the dilemma becomes if teams behind the Eagles in the draft opt to jump over them and go after this talented edge rusher class or get tackles like Paris Johnson or Peter Skoronski.

If the Eagles were to trade back, who do you think would be good trade partners and how far would the Birds be willing to move back?

Smith: It’s easy to say the Eagles should trade back, but there has to be a team — preferably multiple teams — eager to move up to make it happen, obviously. Especially with how spotty this draft is throughout the first round, I could see teams content staying where they are rather than moving up for a top player in this class.

That said, I can see two scenarios that could play in the Eagles’ favor. The first is Anthony Richardson or Will Levis falling to them. If one of them is sitting there at No. 10, particularly Richardson, history suggests the Eagles could get a massive haul from a QB-needy team trying to secure him. Especially with the Titans sitting at No. 11 with a long-term need at QB. If Richardson is there, the Commanders at No. 16, the Lions at No. 18, the Buccaneers at No. 19, and especially the Minnesota Vikings at No. 23 (more on that later) could justify going up to get him because of his elite upside.

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If there’s an early run on quarterbacks and pass rushers, the Eagles also could try to move out of that spot with a team clamoring for the top tackle on their board, whether it’s Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones, or Darnell Wright. The compensation won’t be as hefty as a possible package for a quarterback, but the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 17 could make a lot of sense there.

Jackson: You make an excellent point about a top quarterback prospect falling to the Eagles. We know the first three picks in the draft, assuming the Arizona Cardinals move down from No. 3 overall, could all be quarterbacks, but let’s say the Colts pick swap with Arizona, where does the fourth quarterback go?

The tackle class buzz also is relevant in draft circles, considering it’s a premium position with Johnson, Jones, and Wright having an excellent predraft process. Plenty of teams behind the Eagles (Titans, Patriots, Jets, Commanders) are in need of a tackle, and the No. 10 pick could be enticing for teams who want their franchise tackle.

Back to quarterbacks, though, you mentioned a massive haul could come the Eagles’ way if one of the top four were available. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields have gone in a similar spot via trade up. What does historical data tell us about moves like this, trading up right around the 10th pick?

Smith: Some combination of Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Richardson, and Will Levis go off the board in the first three picks and the fourth guy lingers until the Eagles are on the clock. I personally don’t think Richardson will fall to No. 10, nor should he, but I said the same thing about Fields a few years ago, and this exact scenario played out. Even if it’s Levis hanging around until No. 10, there’s a chance a team gets antsy and wants to move up for him.

The recent quarterback trade-ups around the 10th pick tell us a few things: Teams pay considerably more when there’s a signal caller on the board, and it should net the team trading back at least a future first-round pick. Chicago gave up a future first-rounder, a future fourth-rounder, and a sixth-round pick in the 2021 draft to move up 10 spots for Fields. In 2017, the Chiefs gave up a future first- and third-rounder that year to climb 17 spots for Mahomes.

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There isn’t much precedent for trades in this range netting future firsts without a quarterback involved, though. Moving from 12th to 10th for DeVonta Smith in 2021 only cost the Eagles a third-rounder. Last year, the Saints gave up a third- and fourth-round pick to jump five spots for wide receiver Chris Olave. Even the Steelers moving up 10 spots for linebacker Devin Bush in 2017 didn’t require a future first. They gave up their second-round pick that year and a future third in the exchange.

All this to say, the Eagles could expect a Day 2 pick and possibly an early Day 3 pick if they’re negotiating with a team pursuing a non-quarterback. Trading into the 20s could net slightly more. But if they’re dealing with a front office desperate for Levis or Richardson, things get really interesting.

Jackson: Quarterback capital is something that always comes up in talented quarterback classes, and when you look at 2017 and 2021, both classes had special talents with quarterbacks worth clamoring for. Last year, obviously, was an exception with Kenny Pickett being the only first-round quarterback at pick No. 20 to the Steelers, but, as you said, if Levis and Richardson fall to No. 10, the Eagles could add to an already impressive 2024 draft outlook. They currently hold eight draft picks with the potential for more compensatory picks after losing a number of starters in free agency.

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Shifting gears, there’s been discussion and discourse on if the Eagles would trade up, instead of trading back. To me, a trade up would mean Georgia’s Carter or Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. are taking a free fall in the first round and the Eagles want to strike while the iron is hot. With Carter not meeting with teams outside of the top 10 during the predraft process, it seems to signal he doesn’t anticipate making it past No. 10, and with his teammates Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis on the roster, getting him in Philly could be a priority.

How far would a talent like Carter or Anderson need to fall before the Eagles consider making a trade up? Obviously, in a trade-up scenario, the quarterback runs happens within the first five picks.

Smith: If there’s an early run on quarterbacks, it feels like one of Carter or Anderson would need to make it past Detroit at No. 6 to facilitate a trade. Trading into the top 10, even from 10th overall, can be quite steep, so moving up any further seems difficult. The Eagles netted a future first from the Dolphins two years ago by moving from No. 6 to No. 12. It’s hard to see the Eagles giving up a future first for a non-quarterback in this scenario, though.

I’m glad you mentioned the 2024 draft stash the Eagles have compiled. This is the trickiest part about trading up. The Eagles are in line to receive four compensatory picks because of the number of free agents they lost and residual trade compensation means they’ll have up to 12 picks to work with next offseason. They only have six picks this year and none in the fourth, fifth, or sixth rounds, so a trade up likely would require dipping into next year’s picks. The issue lies in how much Roseman values future picks relative to the rest of the league; it’s a market inefficiency he’s exploited before with teams willing to give up valuable future assets at a steep discount. If Roseman finds he puts more of a premium on 2024 selections than the teams he’s negotiating with, there could be an impasse.

All that said, history suggests a small trade up is very much in play. The Eagles know the 10th pick may be their final opportunity at picking this high for the foreseeable future, and I could see them using this rationale to justify a small move up for one of the best players in the draft. Roseman has a tendency of moving slightly up the draft board, with Davis, DeVonta Smith, and Andre Dillard all being recent examples.

If they do trade up, I’d expect an ensuing trade at No. 30 to recoup some assets on Day 3.

Jackson: It’ll be exciting to see how it might unfold on draft night, with a myriad of possibilities to come. At the end of the day, the Eagles will get the guy they want, whether it happens via a trade up, down, or staying put at 10.