Eagles film: With better run offenses coming, how can the defense weather the loss of Jordan Davis?

Jordan Davis is out for at least the next three games. The Eagles were able to sustain the loss of their run-stopping nose tackle last week against the Texans. And considering their upcoming opponents, the Commanders and Colts, and each team’s below-average rushing offense, they may not have much to worry about the next two weeks.

But starting with the Packers, the Eagles’ final seven opponents currently rank no worse than 14th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Davis could return by Dec. 4 for the Titans and Derrick Henry, the league’s leading rusher, but if his absence extends into December, defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon may need to make concessions greater than he did in Houston.

Fortunately for the 8-0 Eagles, their overall strength has helped offset a run defense that struggled even before Davis’ high ankle sprain and poor tackling that has been a mainstay most of the season.

But with lofty goals now in sight, and the Cowboys and New York Giants, both 6-2, still in their NFC East rearview mirror, the Eagles can’t afford to take their foot off the pedal. In terms of schematic and personnel choices on defense, though, Gannon could be forced to emphasize stopping the run more than he has previously.

“It’s a blend of how I’m calling the game. … If the team is trying to pound you, you want to get another hat in the box,” Gannon said Tuesday. “You make sure that you’re not checkmated by the number count. With saying that, there’s some give and take to that, too, in the pass game.”

In other words, Gannon doesn’t want to give offenses additional reason to throw — and possibly exploit single-high safety coverages — with heavier boxes. If the Texans had a better quarterback, they might have taken advantage of the Eagles employing less of its 5-1 “Penny” front with their passing attack.

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Houston running back Dameon Pierce picked up tough yards vs. the Eagles’ 5-2 and 4-2 fronts, but he did most of his damage against the 5-1. Davis is the engine that powers the Penny, which often allows Gannon to build a wall across the line to stop the run and still keep two safeties deep.

But with Marvin Wilson, who was called up from the practice squad to replace Davis, the Eagles got gashed in the Penny — until Javon Hargrave lined up over center. The Texans gained 55 yards on four carries (13.8 average) with Wilson at the nose in the 5-1. With Hargrave, they managed just 5 yards on two carries.

Gannon leaned on the 5-2 on run-obvious downs. The odd-man front, with Wilson and Marlon Tuipulotu over or shading the center, started off fine. But a ground-heavy drive late in the third quarter exposed the cracks — until, again, Hargrave was inserted at the nose.

Houston accumulated 43 yards on their nine rushes (4.8 average) vs. the 5-2. On their last two carries, with Hargrave in the middle, the Texans picked up just 4 yards.

There were others who factored in the Texans’ running success through three quarters, notably the bruising Pierce and a physical offensive line. But Houston entered the game ranked only 23rd in rushing yards per play.

Aside from Jordan’s absence, the Eagles’ tackling, or lack thereof, was the most prominent reason for Texans running backs gaining 150 yards on 29 carries (5.2 average).

“I believe in the players that we have, and when we’ve needed to make it an emphasis to improve that part of our game, we have,” Gannon said. “There are points in certain games, in every game … that’s just got to be on our mind, and we have to improve it and we have to coach it better.

“It’s just consistency you’re looking for.”

» READ MORE: Eagles-Texans: Already suspect run defense leaky without Jordan Davis

Tackling has been a season-long problem. The Eagles rank second to last in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus. Nine of their 14 missed tackles vs. Houston came on runs alone. But how much has it cost the team? A year ago, for instance, it ranked first, and no one would take that unit over the current one.

The new faces on defense could be one reason for the increase. Three of the top four starters in missed tackle percentage — linebacker Haason Reddick, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and cornerback James Bradberry — arrived just this year.

The Eagles’ double-digit leads in each game may also have some bearing on the whiffs. With softer coverage calls, there could be more space underneath, thus making it harder to wrap up and bring ballcarriers down.

“There were a couple calls in there that I didn’t love that I was really kind of, honestly, putting our guys at a disadvantage,” Gannon said. “Because I was thinking one thing and it wasn’t happening, and that makes it hard for the players.”

But Davis’ importance in the overall function of Gannon’s scheme, which places precedence on not surrendering explosive passing plays, can’t be overstated. His statistical production may not look like much, but the 6-foot-6, 336-pound rookie’s presence in the Eagles’ five-man front not only helps slow the run but allows the coordinator to favor defending the pass.

Here’s a closer look at the effect his absence had on the run defense vs. the Texans and how Gannon may compensate moving forward:

“Base” is a relative term in this case because Gannon utilizes this heavy front — five on the line and two inside linebackers at the second level — about 13% of the time. Davis (No. 90) isn’t necessarily responsible for two gaps — Gannon’s linemen use a one-and-half-gap technique — but his size alone often draws additional attention.

Davis also hardly ever gets driven out of his gap or backward. There might not be a nose tackle in the NFL with his combination of size and athleticism. Wilson (No. 73) has comparable length at 6-foot-4, but he weighs around 30 pounds less.

He’s also inexperienced, having played only 19 snaps in last season’s meaningless finale before the Texans game.

Davis already had taken strides in learning a different technique than the one he played in college at Georgia. The Eagles slowly added more to his plate and even had him on the field in some 4-down packages before his injury. But they didn’t want to overwhelm their top draft pick when they still had Hargrave, Fletcher Cox, and Milton Williams.

Tuipulotu (No. 95) had spelled Davis on occasion, but the 6-2, 307-pound second-year defensive tackle suffers from the same deficiencies as Wilson. With him at the nose, the Texans gained 6, 9, and 9 yards on three straight rushes that moved their offense deep into Eagles territory late in the third quarter.

Houston went heavy on the next play, which allowed the Eagles to have six men on the line, but when Hargrave (No. 97) finally lined up over the center, Pierce had nowhere to run. The Texans, trailing by only a touchdown at the time, eventually had to settle for a field goal.

Gannon employs the 5-1 with nickel personnel about a quarter of the time. It’s one way for him to match three-receiver personnel on early downs. Davis, depending upon the call and situation, can penetrate as he did below.

Safety Marcus Epps (No. 22) successfully blitzed on the above play. As with any call, there are stresses, and if a running back is able to break through the line, there is only one inside linebacker, T.J. Edwards (No. 57) at the next level.

But the benefit can come when offenses pass out of run looks or off play action. Gannon’s scheme is predicated on taking away the deep pass and forcing the quarterback to check down, as the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett did here.

Davis’ injury on the above play was unfortunate. And Pittsburgh gained a few extra yards because of shoddy tackling. But 7 yards is better than allowing 36 yards, as the Eagles did on the Pierce (No. 31) rush below.

Wilson was hardly at fault for the long gain. The 5-2 might have made more sense considering it was first down. But the Texans had perfect execution, and Epps, partly because of the call, and Gardner-Johnson (No. 23) missed open-field tackles.

Gannon abandoned the package for a long stretch after Houston gained 19 yards on three other carries up the middle vs. the Penny with Wilson at the nose. Hargrave, though, has plenty of experience at the position, having played there in Pittsburgh and last season for the Eagles. Houston’s momentum slowed once he was moved to over the center.

The Eagles’ actual base defense is their 4-2 front with nickel personnel (five defensive backs). They’re mostly just matching three-receiver sets, but it can make them susceptible to teams that aren’t afraid of checking to runs. They’ve had a few leaky moments against the rush in the package, as they did on the first play of the Texans game below.

But the Texans gained just 25 yards on their next nine carries (2.8 average) against the 4-2 front. The Eagles have more than enough defensive linemen who know how to get downhill against the run.

Gannon doesn’t exactly want Cox (No. 91), Hargrave, and defensive ends like Reddick (No. 7) and Josh Sweat (No. 94) shooting gaps, but there are opportunities within the scheme to make plays in the backfield.

The Eagles were heavy in the box on the above play primarily because of the Texans’ formation. But an argument could be made for leaning 4-2 and stacking the box with a safety, at least against deficient Washington and Indianapolis offenses the next two games.

Moving Hargrave to the nose in 5-down looks might be the easiest way to minimize any potential future damage, but it does force Gannon to alter his defensive tackle rotation. The trade deadline has passed, but general manager Howie Roseman is surely searching the waiver wire for an upgrade over Wilson.

The Eagles, ultimately, may have no other choice but to hold their collective breath until Davis returns. An undefeated first half of the season certainly allows them that luxury. It may not satisfy aggressive mindsets, but Gannon’s unit has been one of the NFL’s best because of its pass defense. A larger sample may reveal how much Davis and the run defense had to do with that.

Inquirer Eagles beat reporters EJ Smith and Josh Tolentino preview the team’s Week 10 game against the Washington Commanders. Watch at Inquirer.com/EaglesGameday