Eagles vs. Giants predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for the NFC divisional round

There seems to be some trepidation from an increasing throng of outsiders that the Giants have significantly bridged the gap since the Eagles trounced them Dec. 11. While it is true that they’re coming off a best overall performance in their first-round victory over the Vikings, and that the Eagles didn’t play their best football in four games since that meeting, I think that narrative is overblown. Yes, momentum is a thing in football. But talent, coaching, and execution ultimately decide outcomes.

The Eagles have more talent, are better coached, and have consistently executed at a higher level than their divisional rivals all season. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is no slouch and has turned the New York franchise around. With Mike Kafka as his play-calling offensive coordinator, they often have maximized their inferior skill. Wink Martindale also is a capable defensive coordinator. He has a chest full of game plans to unveil against any opponent.

But the Eagles have two key matchup advantages that I think are important to emphasize and should tilt the scales in their favor, even if Jalen Hurts doesn’t play like pre-shoulder injury Hurts or if Daniel Jones throws the ball like he did last week in Minnesota. No. 1 is their potent pass rush vs. a suspect Giants offensive line. Jones saw some pressure against the Vikings, but he often had time to scan the field, and when soft zones took away deep routes, he merely checked down to Saquon Barkley. There’s more involved in getting after the quarterback, but Jonathan Gannon has the secondary, especially with the return of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and his part-time move into the slot, to take away Jones’ first reads on a consistent basis.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts’ unrelenting work ethic: From SoCal to his locker stall, the Eagles — and Tony the janitor — tell stories

No. 2 is the Eagles’ receivers and tight ends, specifically A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, vs. the Giants’ pass defense. Cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and safety Xavier McKinney didn’t play in the first meeting. But neither did Goedert, and the Giants have had issues with tight ends all season. If Martindale wants to blitz, as is his nature, the Eagles have the receivers on the outside to win against Cover 1. Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence will be a load to handle for the Eagles’ interior linemen. But Jason Kelce and guards Isaac Seumalo and Landon Dickerson should offset some of his effectiveness, even if Leonard Williams has returned to Lawrence’s side in the middle.

I’m not worried about Nick Sirianni and Shane Steichen dialing back on Hurts in the run game. Yeah, they have to be careful with their quarterback for the long haul, but there will be enough plus-one “read” plays to keep the Giants honest. Is there obvious concern about his shoulder in terms of passing? Sure. But he had an extra week of rest and the indication from internal sources is that there will be zero restrictions. Is there any way the Giants score an upset? Absolutely. Hurts would have to struggle against the blitz, Jones would have to repeat his passing and running performance against the Vikings, and the Eagles would have to be mistake-prone. But I’ll go with the overwhelming evidence from the entire year that the Giants aren’t in the Eagles’ class.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 17

» READ MORE: Eagles open up as a sizable favorite for playoff opener vs. Giants

Wild-card weekend provided a valuable lesson for the Eagles as they enjoyed their first-round bye.

Whether it was too-close-for-comfort wins for the heavily favored Buffalo Bills or Cincinnati Bengals or the Jacksonville Jaguars’ wild upset, the perils of playoff football were apparent. Games hardly go as expected and often come down to a few pivotal moments.

This likely will be the case for the Eagles on Saturday, even against a team they handily defeated roughly five weeks ago. The Giants have gotten significantly healthier since then, plus Daboll and his staff have fine-tuned their schemes to maximize the talent on the Giants roster.

» READ MORE: How Giants coach Brian Daboll made a lasting impact on the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts — and Nick Sirianni

The Eagles took advantage of the Giants’ steady diet of man coverage with a single-high safety with deep outside targets to Brown and Smith. Since then, defensive coordinator Martindale has seemingly ripped that page out of his playbook and played mostly quarters zone coverage against Minnesota last weekend. After leading the NFL in blitz percentage in the regular season, Martindale only sent extra rushers on six of Kirk Cousins’ 39 dropbacks as well.

It’s easy to see Martindale going back to his aggressive ways against the Eagles. The Giants’ best hope is to test Jalen Hurts’ shoulder early and deliver as many hits as possible, even if the 24-year-old quarterback shows an aversion for contact like he did in the regular-season finale between the two teams. Lawrence has the ability to wreck a game like he did against Minnesota, and Williams is talented as well, but the Eagles’ interior line is much better equipped to handle them than the Vikings. If the interior-rushing duo isn’t winning consistently, it’s easy to see Martindale using chaos to generate pressure instead.

One trickle-down effect will be Goedert’s role in wrangling extra rushers. The Giants’ linebacking corps is shaky, and the defense has struggled with tight ends all season. If Goedert isn’t held in for max protect too often, he should have a big game.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ Dallas Goedert hopes to exploit the Giants’ problem with tight ends

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles should be in a good spot. Jones has drawn some lofty praise for his big-time performance against the Vikings, but it’s important to remember that Minnesota ranked 27th in defensive efficiency by Football Outsiders in the regular season. He made a living off dinking and dunking and pulled off a handful of impressive scrambles to move the chains. The Eagles have the secondary to contain the Giants’ receiving corps and the defensive front to take advantage of shaky rookie right tackle Evan Neal, who was a liability for most of the Giants’ wild-card win. Even first-time All-Pro left tackle Andrew Thomas had his hands full with Josh Sweat in the first meeting, which is a promising sign for what’s to come.

All this to say, the Eagles have plenty of matchups to exploit. They’re well rested after a much-needed week off, and Hurts’ shoulder should be better than it was in the regular-season finale against this team. I still think the game will be uglier than expected, but the reasons for the Eagles to win the biggest plays of the game are overwhelming.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Giants 27

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Eagles-Giants Round 3 is shaping up to be a beautiful chess match. The most important piece is Hurts, who was an extreme beneficiary from the bye week, using that time to heal his injured throwing shoulder. If Hurts is anywhere close to his normal self, he’ll provide the Eagles with another dynamic that they lacked during the final three weeks of the regular season. It’ll be up to the blitz-friendly Giants to counter and attempt to force Hurts into bad decisions. The turnover battle typically is a solid indicator of the alpha between two teams, and that’ll likely be the case in the Eagles’ first playoff contest.

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles down to fourth choice to win it all

Lane Johnson’s status also is worth monitoring. He appears to be checking off additional boxes as Saturday’s kickoff nears, but, ultimately, his groin injury still will require surgery at the conclusion of the season. The Giants are better at interior defensive line compared to the edges, but the defensive front still is a strong unit as a whole. Luckily for the Eagles, even with a hobbled Johnson, they still are an elite group led by Kelce, a five-time All-Pro.

New York’s best chances at upsetting the Eagles might rely on Barkley. New Orleans and Washington rallied for upset victories over the Eagles by trimming possessions, forcing turnovers, and dominating time of possession. The Giants might attempt repeating that formula to keep Hurts and Co. off the field.

The Eagles possess ample offensive weapons (Brown, Goedert, Smith, Miles Sanders), defensive playmakers (Haason Reddick, T.J. Edwards, Gardner-Johnson), and a handful of key veterans (Kelce, Brandon Graham) to navigate the nerves that are attached with the playoffs. In the end, Hurts’ success will determine exactly how far this season goes.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Giants 17