Eagles vs. Giants predictions: Our writers make their picks for Week 7′s rivalry game

The Eagles (3-2) visit the rival New York Giants (2-4) on Sunday afternoon, as running back Saquon Barkley makes his highly-anticipated return to MetLife Stadium. Here are our writers’ predictions for Week 7.

This is a tough game to predict because the Eagles have underwhelmed so far, particularly on offense, and the Giants have, at least, a dangerous defense that could prevent Jalen Hurts and Co. from turning things around. For New York, it all starts with Dexter Lawrence, or for that matter, the Eagles’ game plan will begin with trying to neutralize the nose tackle. He can be that dominant — against the run and as a pass rusher. He’s second in the NFL with seven sacks. I have to think Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore will pull out the Aaron Donald Rules playbook which means doubling Lawrence whenever necessary. Center Cam Jurgens has been solid in his first season replacing Jason Kelce, but he had his issues trying to run block Dalvin Tomlinson up the middle last week vs. the Cleveland Browns, and Barkley never really got going as a result.

» READ MORE: ‘Football is not linear’: Why Eagles D-lineman Jordan Davis finds Dexter Lawrence’s ascent ‘inspiring’

That being said, the Giants haven’t exactly been stout vs. the run. They’re allowing 5.2 yards per rush. In terms of advanced analytics, however, they rank somewhere in the middle of the league. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen employs a lot of light boxes in favor of stopping the pass, but if Barkley can make the Giants pay on the ground upon his return to face his former team, the Eagles can get Hurts into more manageable distances on third down to offset Bowen’s ferocious pass rush. He doesn’t blitz anywhere near as much as his predecessor, Wink Martindale, but the former Tennessee Titans coordinator is effective when he sends extra rushers because his 4-down linemen, especially Lawrence and edge rusher Brian Burns, have been so effective in getting to the quarterback. With left tackle Jordan Mailata out, his replacement Fred Johnson will likely be under attack. The Eagles need to protect Hurts, who has been well below the league average when under pressure, this season.

The Giants, meanwhile, will be without their best offensive lineman: left tackle Andrew Thomas. Quarterback Daniel Jones has long shown he struggles to operate when consistently under duress. The Eagles’ pass rush had its best day last week with five sacks. Josh Sweat, who should have the advantage over Thomas’ replacement, Joshua Ezeudu, and defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who should play despite dinging his shoulder on Wednesday, need to win their share of one-on-ones.

Jones should have his best receiver, rookie Malik Nabers, back after he missed two games because of a concussion. He has already established himself as the Giants’ best passing option in some time. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio may want to double Nabers and take his chances against the rest of the ball catchers. The Giants’ run game hasn’t been the same since Barkley left, but Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary are capable gap scheme runners. The Eagles have been better against the run since Fangio started to use more 5- and 6-man fronts. Can Jones make them pay when Fangio steals from the back? Maybe. Jones is capable, but he needs time in the pocket, or he needs a few successful designed runs to keep defenses off balance.

The Eagles, on paper, are better than the Giants, but that and a nickel may get you a bus ride to MetLife Stadium. They have decided advantages at certain spots, especially with Thomas out. But I think the Giants’ pass rush has a greater edge and Hurts has yet to show this season that he can operate when pressured. Maybe the Eagles get their act together and cruise. It’s possible. But I see a low-scoring affair that should tilt the outcome in the Giants’ favor.

Prediction: Giants 20, Eagles 18

This certainly isn’t a Sunday bereft of storylines.

It’s Barkley against his former team. It’s Eagles safety Sydney Brown making his return from a torn ACL suffered on this same MetLife Stadium field just nine months ago.

Then there are the storylines that actually have an impact on the result, like the Eagles no longer having Kelce to go up against the All-Pro Lawrence. They are also one player down on the offensive line with Mailata out with a hamstring injury. Will they be able to pay enough attention to Lawrence without exposing themselves on the outside? Will Jurgens hold up against his toughest challenge to date?

Then there’s the stale Eagles offense, which is running late (in the play clock) and not scoring early. The Giants lead the NFL in sacks with Lawrence a half-sack off Aidan Hutchinson’s league-leading 7½ for the Detroit Lions. Beyond pressuring the quarterback, the Giants have been stingier. They ranked 27th in yards allowed per game last season (361.7), but are down to 10th in the NFL at 314 per game so far in 2024.

But where the Giants struggle most defensively is against the run. They are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Only two teams — Buffalo and New Orleans — surrender more on a per-carry basis. The Eagles couldn’t get much going last week against Cleveland’s run defense, and maybe the Giants will look at what the Browns did well as a blueprint and will look to make an inconsistent Hurts beat them with his arm. Perhaps the Eagles will find different ways to get Barkley the ball to do damage.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants are getting Nabers back from the concussion protocol, and so far the rookie has been a sensation. He will apply pressure immediately to Darius Slay, who was on and off the practice field this week with a knee injury. And when he’s on the other side of the field, Nabers against rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell should be a treat to watch.

The Giants have made some improvements on offense after letting Barkley walk, mainly in the passing game, and Nabers is a big reason why. But there’s still the Jones problem at QB. His completion percentage ranks 25th and he has the same amount of interceptions (4) as Hurts. The Giants don’t run the ball particularly well, and they, too, are without Thomas, who is out for the season.

» READ MORE: The Saquon Effect: Barkley has no hate toward Giants

It feels like we’re on our way to watching another ugly game Sunday, an adjective that seems synonymous with Eagles football right now.

Someone has to win, though. The Eagles have the talent advantage, but the Giants have the player, Lawrence, that could be the biggest game-changer. Still, you’d probably rather be the Eagles heading into Sunday.

Prediction: Eagles 23, Giants 17

Going into the Eagles’ first divisional game of the season, there are plenty of matchups to exploit that should work in their favor. One major advantage is a player the Giants know well — Barkley. The Giants’ run defense has left much to be desired, allowing 5.2 rushing yards per play (third-to-last in the league this season according to NFL Next Gen Stats).

They haven’t been known to clog up the box, utilizing six or fewer defenders in the box on a league-high 71.8% of designed rushes. Meanwhile, Barkley has thrived this season against light boxes, racking up 277 yards on 38 carries (3.8 yards per carry) against six or fewer defenders in the box (No. 2-most among running backs). If the Giants dedicate more resources on the ground to take Barkley away, that could free up space for receivers to take advantage of in the passing game.

As he does most weeks, A.J. Brown offers the Eagle a favorable matchup. He has been one of the most effective receivers in the league on downfield targets against man coverage this season, racking up 129 receiving yards (No. 4 in the NFL) and two touchdowns, according to Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, Giants cornerback Deonte Banks, who could see his share of snaps in coverage against Brown, has allowed four touchdowns in man coverage, the most among outside cornerbacks this season.

The biggest matchup concern ought to be the Eagles’ offensive line vs. the Giants’ defensive front. With Mailata (hamstring) on injured reserve, Fred Johnson in all likelihood is going to be tasked throughout the game with keeping Burns at bay. Johnson has been solid when asked to jump into action mid-game, but he struggled in his lone start this season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The interior offensive line must also limit Lawrence, one of the most disruptive defensive tackles in the league.

The Eagles must have a good pressure plan this week. This could be a low-scoring contest given the talent along the Giants’ defensive front and the Giants’ lackluster offense outside of Nabers. Still, it’s a game that the Eagles should win.

Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 17

The Eagles play in Week 7 against the New York Giants. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from MetLife Stadium.