Eagles-Jaguars predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for Week 4 vs. Doug Pederson

The Eagles will host the Jacksonville Jaguars and former coach Doug Pederson on Sunday. Here are the game predictions from our Eagles beat writers for Week 4.

It didn’t take long for Doug Pederson to turn the Jaguars into a competitive NFL team. Heck, they may be even better than that, having won two of their first three. It’s no surprise that the former Eagles coach had an immediate impact on quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Pederson knows how to teach the position as well as any coach, especially when he has some clay to mold. Jacksonville spent a lot in free agency, devoting significant cap space to the offensive side of the ball. Brandon Scherff upgraded the interior of the line and all four of Lawrence’s top targets — receivers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Marvin Jones and tight end Evan Engram — arrived in the offseason.

With running back James Robinson, Pederson has enough of a ground game to keep defenses honest and create space for his receivers with his version of the West Coast. Lawrence is getting the ball out much quicker and hasn’t been the sitting duck he often was as a rookie. The Eagles’ defensive front is unlikely to have the extra time Carson Wentz’s ball-holding provided last week. Jonathan Gannon has blitzed a little more this season, but he’s never going to hang his hat on it. And I’m not sure it makes sense to take from the back end considering Lawrence’s relative success against plus-four rushers. So Gannon’s coverage choices and pre-snap disguises will likely have to create enough hesitancy for the four-man rush to get home.

The Jaguars defense has strung together impressive back-to-back outings, shutting out Matt Ryan and the Colts, and holding the injured Justin Herbert and the Chargers to just 13 points. Edge rusher Josh Allen has been a tough block for tackles and, because he rushes evenly from either side, should be a handful for Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. Inside linebacker Devin Lloyd has been a rookie revelation and has commandeered Jacksonville’s stout run defense. The Jags have allowed just 55 rushing yards a game.

The Eagles have some notable advantages through the air, though, and this should be where the game will tilt in their favor. Slot cornerback Darious Williams has been exploitable. Look for Quez Watkins or Zach Pascal, who has a considerable size advantage, to be targeted early. Outside cornerback Tyson Campbell has been steady, but Jacksonville has some injury uncertainty on the other side, and their safeties can be suspect. Expect Eagles receivers A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith — or maybe both — to have banner days again.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Jaguars 17

» READ MORE: Eagles game-by-game predictions for 2022

This feels like a close game between two teams that both have some legitimate momentum.

This is not the Jaguars of yesteryear. Pederson has brought a level of competency to the Jacksonville coaching ranks that was lacking last season and the team has finally turned all of that first-round talent into some upward movement.

Lawrence is the best quarterback the Eagles have seen so far, and Jacksonville is arguably the best team they’ve faced as well. The Jags put up 38 points against a talented Chargers defense last week, and they did it while settling for three red-zone field goals.

Pederson has some former Nick Sirianni assistants on his staff, which should help Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell slow down an Eagles offense that’s been explosive. Jacksonville has plenty of speed in its front seven, including the rookie linebacker Lloyd, so Hurts’ legs may not be as big a factor as they were in the first three games.

The Eagles’ path toward winning is likely the formula they have followed the last two weeks. Get out to an early lead, steal a possession at the end of the second quarter, and let the defense capitalize on a one-dimensional Jaguars offense. Lawrence will get rid of the ball quicker than Wentz, so the defensive front may have to rely on pressures rather than sacks.

» READ MORE: How Jalen Hurts’ deeper understanding of the Eagles offense has earned him trust

But what happens if the offense goes stagnant once again in the second half? You can’t let a good team hang around, and the Jags appear to be exactly that.

I picked the Eagles to win this game before the season and to lose in Arizona for a 4-1 start. With the clarity of three weeks, this game feels much more up for grabs. The Eagles have the home-field advantage and a slight edge in talent, but the Jags just might be good enough to exploit some of the imperfections we’ve seen in the Eagles’ armor the last few weeks.

Prediction: Jaguars 34, Eagles 31

The Eagles are rolling. Hurts was named NFC offensive player of the month and has made tremendous strides in his ability to process through his reads quickly. It’s still an early sample size, but Hurts’ dedication from the offseason seems to be paying off. Through three games, Hurts ranks second in the NFL — behind only Bills quarterback Josh Allen — in total offense with 1,083 yards. Hurts leads the league with 28 explosive plays.

Will Pederson be able to slow down Hurts? After all, Pederson was part of the franchise’s braintrust when the Eagles selected Hurts in the second round of the 2020 draft. Pederson might have a slight lean on Hurts’ tendencies, especially when considering Pederson’s coaching staff includes Jim Bob Cooter, who served as a consultant for the Eagles last season, along with Press Taylor, who was the passing coordinator during Hurts’ rookie season.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ Nick Sirianni braces for Doug Pederson’s return to Philadelphia

But to Hurts’ credit, he’s made noticeable strides, and he certainly isn’t the same player he was three years ago. Benefiting from being under the same system and playbook in consecutive seasons for the first time in his career since high school, Hurts is boasting a new level of swagger in Year 3. It helps when his top three targets in the passing game are Brown, Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Brown, who missed the first two practices of the week for personal reasons, has provided Hurts with more comfort in throwing across the middle parts of the field. Brown’s presence has also opened up room for other playmakers. The offense’s distribution is commendable, and it’ll be up to opposing defenses to adjust and stop this high-powered machine.

Gannon must limit Lawrence. The defensive backs will need to be on their P’s and Q’s as they prepare to strap up the Jaguars receivers Kirk, Jones, and Jones. Running back James Robinson, who recently completed an impressive rehab from a torn Achilles, has tallied four total touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving). The Eagles offense and defense impressed the last two weeks, but their special teams committed multiple blunders in consecutive games, between a blocked field goal attempt and punter Arryn Siposs’ early struggles to pin opponents deep. That’ll be worth monitoring, with the Jaguars boasting one of the more explosive returners in the league in Jamal Agnew.

If Hurts takes care of the football, he’ll continue his upward trajectory. In recent history, the Eagles have enjoyed success against younger quarterbacks. However, Lawrence was taken first overall for good reason. Gannon’s secondary will need to win the explosive-play battle in order for the Eagles to spoil Pederson’s return to Lincoln Financial Field.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Jaguars 24

Inquirer Eagles beat reporters EJ Smith and Josh Tolentino preview the team’s Week 4 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Doug Pederson. Watch at Inquirer.com/EaglesGameday