What we learned from Eagles-Giants: Handicapping Jalen Hurts’ MVP chances

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. – The Eagles clinched a playoff berth with a resounding 48-22 win over the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Win, lose, or draw, here’s what we learned:

Before we get to handicapping the NFL MVP competition, Jalen Hurts’ performance against the Giants deserves some further examination. The Eagles quarterback keeps stacking one impressive outing after the other. He came out throwing Sunday, and impressively so. He often went where the progression on each play deemed he should and completed eight of his first 11 passes to different receivers. On the opening drive, he went to third-string tight end Grant Calcaterra twice and dumped a pass to running back Miles Sanders for 11 yards. But Hurts also made tosses into tight windows. He hit receiver DeVonta Smith for seven yards on third-and-six on a short-out route. He connected with receiver A.J. Brown on a slant.

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A drive later, he darted a 9-yard dime to Quez Watkins on third-and-3. The ball was placed high and outside where only his receiver could catch it. Hurts has completed these types of throws all season, but with increasing regularity. His two best passes might have been incompletions when Sanders and Smith were unable to get both feet inbounds on fades. Hurts has developed into one of the best pocket passers in the game. He hasn’t batted an eye of late when defenses blitz. In the past, he might have needlessly scrambled, but Hurts now has the answers with his arm when pressured. The Giants’ Don “Wink” Martindale entered the game blitzing as often as any defensive coordinator and he didn’t disappoint. He sent extra rushers on 19 of Hurts’ 36 drops. The quarterback completed 10 of 16 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown, per Pro Football Focus. He was sacked three times, but he (again) avoided turnovers.

Hurts did scramble once, converting a third-and-six. But most of the damage he inflicted as a runner came on designed plays. On called runs, he rushed six times for 69 yards and a touchdown. He now has 10 rushing touchdowns on the season — matching last year’s mark — and became the first quarterback to have back-to-back seasons with as many. As dangerous as Hurts has been on the ground, it’s his mastery through the air that has taken the Eagles offense to another level. He leads the NFL in passer rating (108.4), after moving ahead of the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa (108.2), and has taken the MVP lead from Patrick Mahomes in most outlets’ rankings. The Chiefs won on Sunday, but Mahomes tossed three interceptions to increase his number to 11 on the season.

There’s more to Hurts’ candidacy, though, and here’s one ranking of the contenders with four weeks left in the season:

1. Hurts (-100): In terms of numbers, he’s probably been the most efficient passer in the league. He’s currently in the top five in accuracy (68%, fourth), average gain (8.14 yards, third), touchdown percentage (5.7, fifth), and interception percentage (.8, first). Hurts, of course, brings more to the table with his legs. He’s gained 686 yards on the ground, averages 4.9 yards per carry, and has 10 scores. As a plus-one in the run game, he creates space for Sanders and the running backs and has the Eagles’ run game ranked first in Football Outsiders’ defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. Hurts plays the most important position in football and is the unquestioned best player on the team with the best record.

2. Mahomes (+175): The 2018 MVP had the edge in various circles heading into Sunday’s game against the Broncos. But he tossed three picks as 10-3 Kansas City nearly coughed up a 27-0 lead. Mahomes (103.4 passer rating) is as legitimate a candidate as anyone. Andy Reid requires so much from his quarterbacks and no one has as much responsibility in the pass game as Mahomes. He can make something out of almost nothing. But he has recently been careless with some throws.

3. Joe Burrow (+500): The Bengals quarterback is coming on strong as his team has won five in a row, including beating the Chiefs a week ago. He got off to a horrid start, tossing four interceptions in 9-4 Cincinnati’s season-opening loss vs. the Steelers. But Burrow (102.4 rating) has thrown only five picks since and looks like the guy that came oh-so-close to winning a championship a year ago.

4. Josh Allen (+2000): He’s drifted of late, but the quarterback is vital to nearly everything the 10-3 Bills do on offense. He’s not as accurate as his competitors, but few are willing to utilize their arm strength down the field as often. Among mobile quarterbacks, only Chicago’s Justin Fields (7.07) and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (6.82) average more yards per carry than Allen (6.34).

5. Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill (+5000): The former struggled mightily Sunday night and completed only 10 of 28 passes against the Chargers. The week before in the 8-5 Dolphins’ loss to the 49ers, he completed only 54.6% of his passes and threw two interceptions. But Tagovailoa was in the conversation through most of the first three months. Hill is on pace to have more than 1,900 yards receiving. He’s given Miami the downfield threat it so desperately lacked.

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (+10,000), Seahawks QB Geno Smith (+20,000), Cowboys LB Micah Parsons (+50,000), Lions QB Jared Goff (+75,000).

The visitors’ locker room at MetLife was festive after the Eagles pasted their division rivals, but clinching a playoff spot didn’t add much spice to the celebration. At this point, a postseason spot was expected, so it’s understandable why coach Nick Sirianni didn’t want to make a big deal after the game. “Oh, that’s nice,” he said when asked about becoming the first NFL team to grab a berth. Sirianni didn’t even mention the achievement in his postgame speech to his players. The Eagles have greater goals. They want to win the NFC East first and then they want to secure the No. 1 seed that would give them the only first-round bye in the conference.

They can’t accomplish either on Sunday at the 3-10 Bears, even if the 10-3 Cowboys are upset by the Jaguars. But with a victory over Chicago — assuming Dallas wins — they can clinch both the division and the NFC top spot by beating the Cowboys on Dec. 24. Even if they fall to the Bears, there are additional paths to winning the No. 1 seed in Week 16. But if the Eagles take care of business on Sunday and on Christmas Eve, they can start planning for the postseason with two weeks remaining.

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The rest or not-rest argument is a little premature, but Sirianni could be faced with that reality by Week 17. Last season, he opted to rest his starters in the finale. The Cowboys, on the contrary, played their first-teamers for most of the game. Both teams lost the following week in the first round of the playoffs. Perhaps Sirianni takes the opposite approach this time, but he’s already shown how much importance he places upon player health with how he’s handled training camp, practices, and the preseason. If the goal is the Super Bowl, he’ll want to lower the odds of injury, especially if the Eagles have little to gain in terms of seeding.

The asterisk is for the extra game it would take to eclipse the mark of 62 sacks set by the 1989 Eagles. But wherever the 2022 group ends up, it’ll likely have more quarterback takedowns than any recent team defense. The Eagles’ seven sacks against the Giants gave them 49 through 13 games, matching the season-long totals for 2020 and 2014, among recent teams. The 2011 team finished with 50.

So why all the sacks and already 19 more than they had a season ago? Well, for one, the Eagles have two good pass rushers that they didn’t have a year ago, or at least in Brandon Graham’s case, for most of the season. But Haason Reddick, who leads the team with 10 sacks, has brought a much-needed edge to the edge rushing unit. The outside linebacker has double-digit sacks in each of his last three seasons, and became the first to ever do so for three different teams over that span. Graham notched three sacks on Sunday and is second with 8 ½. The 13-year defensive end’s snap counts are down, but no other Eagle has been as efficient in his rushes.

Defensive end Josh Sweat matched his career best (7 ½ sacks) against the Giants and beat Andrew Thomas, one of the best left tackles, in the process. Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is next with seven sacks and behind him is defensive tackle Fletcher Cox with six. The Eagles rank behind only the Cowboys in sacks per pass attempt. They may not have a rusher who attracts as much attention as Parsons, but they have as much depth as any unit in the league.

All that being said, the Eagles’ coverage has played as big a role in the Eagles’ sack and pressure numbers. In most weeks, opposing quarterbacks are holding the ball in the pocket longer than their overall averages when sacked.

Sirianni confirmed that punter Arryn Siposs is “going to be [out] a little longer than we expected” after he injured his ankle and that the Eagles will need to sign a replacement. They are expected to bring veteran Brett Kern in for a workout. The long-time former Titans punter lost his job to rookie Ryan Stonehouse before the season. Kern’s punting averages dipped in recent seasons, but he remained one of the best at placing balls inside the 20. The Eagles don’t necessarily want a guy who can bomb balls — like Stonehouse — and out-kick their coverage. The 36-year-old seems like an obvious fit.

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Some other possibilities include Matt Araiza, Jordan Berry, Joseph Charlton, Kevin Huber, Ty Long, Brock Miller, and Hunter Niswander. The Eagles would have to sign Huber off the Bengals’ practice squad and onto their 53-man roster. Miller tried out with the team twice during the season. Araiza would be a long shot and may be off the list because of gang rape allegations. Charges were ultimately not filed against the former Bills draft pick. He has denied the accusations, but there is still a civil suit. Even if the Eagles’ investigations cleared Araiza of any wrongdoing, it’s unlikely they would welcome the disruption he would bring to a team with title aspirations.

Siposs injured his ankle after his punt was blocked in the end zone. He instinctively scooped up the loose ball and nearly ran for the first down. But he stepped out just shy of the marker and was drilled on the sideline. Siposs got off to a slow start this season, but has been relatively steady over the last two months. He drifted down the stretch a year ago, partly it was assumed, because of the weather, but he had maybe his worst performance in the playoff loss in Tampa. Kern, who was an All-Pro in 2019, has participated in seven postseason games over his 15-year career.

The blocked punt was another in a series of dubious moments for the Eagles’ special teams this season, but it was the lone negative on a day that could have proved disastrous after Siposs left. Receiver Britain Covey ably took over holding duties and kicker Jake Elliott managed 35 yards without a return on his lone replacement punt. Michael Clay’s special teams have justifiably drawn concern, but the kick coverage and return units have been better the last two weeks. The Giants averaged just 19.3 yards on three returns and Boston Scott averaged 39 yards on three returns, including a 66-yarder after New York scored following the block. … Promoting Christian Elliss off the practice squad to help on special teams has paid off. He has four special teams tackles the last two games and is already tied for third on the team. … The Eagles have been able to pull their starters in each of their last two games and in three games overall. Aside from the benefit of resting older guys, they’ve been able to get development snaps for the future.