Eagles stats: How will Gardner Minshew change the look of the Eagles offense?

The Eagles escaping Chicago with a win turned out to be more pivotal than first expected.

With Jalen Hurts dealing with a sprained right shoulder and potentially missing the next two games, the Eagles are still in a good position to secure the No. 1 seed with three games left. Gardner Minshew and Co. will need to win just one of the next three games to secure a first-round bye and there are scenarios in which they could lose out and still clinch.

Here’s what the numbers say about how Minshew might fare, along with the playoff picture:

How different will the Eagles offense look with Gardner Minshew at the controls? At least part of the story can be summed up by the tracking data.

Last season, Minshew’s average depth of target was just six yards on his 60 passing attempts, 3.5 yards shorter than Hurts’ that year. ADOT measures how far downfield a receiver is when a quarterback throws to them and can suggest how often a signal caller is settling for the short stuff rather than taking shots deep.

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Among the 54 quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts, Minshew’s ADOT ranked 52nd. This is a small sample size, but the numbers track with Minshew’s time as a full-time starter with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019 and 2020. His 7.9-yard ADOT as a rookie ranked toward the bottom of the league. In 2020, he was middle-of-the-road with an 8.5-yard average.

In Layman’s terms: Minshew doesn’t throw deep as often as Hurts does. The 26-year-old is adept at hitting receivers on-time with accuracy on underneath routes and should be able to maintain a high completion percentage, but it might come at the expense of the one-on-one go balls Hurts has effectively thrown this season.

However different things may look in the passing game, the biggest change for the Eagles offense without Hurts will certainly come in the running game.

Hurts led all NFL quarterbacks with three estimated points added per rush, according to TruMedia. Lamar Jackson ranked second with 2.73.

Hurts hasn’t relied on scrambling this season like he did last year, but the threat of him taking off does dictate what teams can do on defense against the Eagles. Some teams have been reluctant to play man coverage against Hurts because of the danger that comes from having cornerbacks and safeties turn their backs on him while chasing receivers.

The bigger loss, though, is in the run game. Hurts’ threat to keep the ball out of the shotgun formation allows the Eagles to leave a backside defender unblocked and get a numbers advantage on the play side. Hurts often requires attention from more than one player, which helps free up Miles Sanders and the other running back. The Eagles have also found plenty of success running quarterback draw out of empty formations, which will be a nonfactor with Minshew.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Eagles have the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl at 26%. A win against the Dallas Cowboys would improve the probability to 29%. It’s worth noting these models are based on game results, not player status, and were published before news of Hurts’ injured shoulder surfaced.

The playoff teams and seeding will shake out over the next three weeks, but there are two races still up in the air that are significant for the Eagles. The first is which team earns the seventh and final spot in the NFC playoffs. FiveThirtyEight has the Eagles, Vikings, 49ers, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Giants, and Lions as the most likely group going into the wild-card round. The New York Times has the same first six, but gives the 7-6-1 Washington Commanders better odds than the 7-7 Lions. The Seattle Seahawks (7-7) are also in the hunt.

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The Eagles’ lone loss came against the Commanders and they beat Detroit in a close season opener, so there’s reason not to take either team lightly if they’re matched up with the Eagles in the playoffs. The Lions may be the bigger threat; they’ve won six of their last seven with the only blemish a 28-25 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

The other race that bears watching is whether the San Francisco 49ers or the Minnesota Vikings push the Eagles for the top seed, or which one secures the No. 2 seed. The New York Times gives Minnesota a 58% chance of locking up the second spot, with San Francisco having a 41% chance. If the Eagles were to lose the next three games, Minnesota is the most likely team to earn a first-round bye.

It’s important to note that, unless the Cowboys win out and the Eagles lose out, they can’t win the division and the best they can do seeding-wise is fifth. It’s not all bad for Dallas, though, as the fourth seed will be the winner of the dreadful NFC South (likely the Bucs). Those hoping the Eagles avoid Dallas in the division round should be pulling for a Vikings or 49ers upset, which would send a triumphant lower seed to the Linc in January.