Eagles stats: What MVP candidate Jalen Hurts’ absence teaches us about him — and him vs. the system

It might be time to revisit Jalen Hurts’ MVP candidacy.

The Eagles offensive struggles, particularly in Sunday’s 20-10 loss to the New Orleans Saints, have illustrated how valuable Hurts is to the team. The two games in which the Eagles quarterback has watched from the sideline have coincidentally given Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons an answer to the question he posed leading into the Eagles’ 40-34 loss to Dallas on Christmas Eve.

Is it Hurts, or is it the system?

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Here are four numbers that show the ways the Eagles miss Hurts the most, and where they’ve managed without him:

Let’s start with a metric that has been essentially unaffected by Hurts’ absence. The Eagles’ 13.1% explosive play rate over the last two games is identical to their rate over the first 14, according to TruMedia.

The metric, which measures how often the Eagles offense gains 20 or more yards on a single play, is one that coach Nick Sirianni and his staff consider to have the biggest impact on winning and monitor closely.

It’s a small sample size, but the Eagles are still among the 10 best teams at creating explosive plays with Gardner Minshew running things and the numbers have been maintained without Hurts. A good amount of that can be explained by the splashy plays A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert have made in the last two games; the trio have accounted for nine of the Eagles 10 explosive plays over that time. Although there’s some noise to be expected in such a limited stretch, the Eagles’ playmakers have proven they share a significant role in how explosive the Eagles offense is regardless of who is at quarterback.

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So if Hurts’ absence hasn’t impacted the Eagles biggest plays, then why have they struggled so much in the last two games?

The biggest difference between the Hurts-led Eagles and the team with Minshew under center is success rate and turnover differential. Success rate, which is tracked by Pro Football Focus, measures the frequency in which an offense gains enough yardage to stay ahead of the sticks and indicates how well a team can sustain drives as a result. The Eagles led the league with a 49.7% success rate with Hurts, but have dropped to 41.6% with Minshew, ranking No. 18 in the last two weeks.

There are several factors that contribute to this drop. Hurts’ running ability leads to him taking fewer sacks for major losses and also gives the Eagles a numbers advantage in the run game. Hurts’ completion percentage is also nearly 10 points higher than Minshew’s, representative of how efficient he has been throwing from the pocket this season.

The Eagles’ drop in success rate reveals the major role Hurts plays in sustaining drives with incremental gains and by avoiding negative plays.

Speaking of negative plays, Hurts’ decision-making, pocket management, and ball security have been sorely missed the last two games.

With Hurts under center, the Eagles led the NFL in turnover differential at plus-12. In the last two games, they’re minus-3.

The differential is reflective of the entire team rather than just the quarterback play, but Minshew has been responsible for four of the Eagles’ five turnovers in the last two games. PFF charges Minshew with five turnover-worthy plays over that time. By comparison, Hurts’ nine turnover-worthy plays rank last among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks this season.

The Eagles were due for some regression to the mean with turnover luck after an unprecedented start, but the impact of Hurts’ risk aversion has been apparent in his absence.

Like their success rate, the Eagles’ estimated points added per play has dipped significantly since Hurts went down.

The Eagles went from second in EPA/play in the first 14 games of the season to 20th in the last two, going from .10 to negative .10, further highlighting the lack of consistency from the offense.

Even after missing the last two games, Hurts still ranks in total EPA behind only Patrick Mahomes, whom most view as the MVP front-runner going into the final week of the regular season. Further bolstering his case, Hurts’ 94 EPA is still well ahead of fellow MVP candidates like Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, each of whom has played every game this season.