Eagles playoff picture: Lions’ loss tonight boosts Philly’s chances at top seed

Eagles fans, get your cheesehead hats ready.

The Detroit Lions (10-1) host the Green Bay Packers (9-3) tonight on Amazon Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. Philly time. Not only is it the best NFL game of the week and a pivotal NFC North matchup, it could have a huge impact on which NFC team ends up with the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye during the playoffs.

From Philly’s perspective, if the Lions are going to lose only one more game this season, it needs to come against the Packers.

Unfortunately, you won’t be able to find the game on television. Lions vs. Packers is streaming exclusively on Amazon, so you need a subscription to Prime to watch (or you can also subscribe to just Prime Video for $8.99 a month with a 30-day free trial). Sports bars and restaurants can air the game, thanks to Amazon’s deal with DirecTV.

While a lot can change over the next five weeks, here are the current playoff scenarios among the Eagles, Lions, and a few other contenders for the No. 1 seed heading into Thursday’s game:

The Lions enter Week 14 a game ahead of the Eagles in the NFC playoff picture, so any Detroit loss will help the Birds’ chances. But a loss to the Packers would be a huge boost for the Eagles’ chances of landing the No. 1 seed.

How much of a boost? If the Packers win, the Eagles’ chances of securing the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye jump to 50%, according to the New York Times NFL playoff simulator. A Lions win drops the Eagles’ chances of winning the NFC down to 12%.

The Eagles would clinch the No. 1 seed if they win out and the Lions lose to the Packers but win the rest of their games (including defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18). In that scenario, both teams would end the season with a 15-2 record, with the Eagles prevailing with a better winning percentage against common opponents thanks to their Week 1 victory against the Packers.

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Yes, but it would require the Lions to lose at least two of their final four games, and most likely three.

Even if the Eagles win out, if the Lions defeat the Packers but lose to the Buffalo Bills, Detroit would have a better conference record (11-1) than the Birds (10-2). If a Lions’ loss comes against an NFC team other than the Packers, they’d have the same conference record of the Eagles (10-2) but win the tiebreaker by having a better winning percentage against common opponents.

Needless to say, the easiest path would be for the Eagles to win out and the Lions lose two games. Though there are a couple scenarios where the Eagles could win a tiebreaker against the Lions if both teams end the season 14-3, even if Detroit beats the Green Bay.

Meanwhile, the Lions would officially clinch a playoff spot with a win or tie against the Packers Thursday.

If the Packers win Thursday, they would move to 10-3 on the season and join the Eagles and Lions in the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

The Eagles beat the Packers way back in Week 1 in Brazil, so if Philly and Green Bay end the season with the same record, the Birds would win that tiebreaker. So the Packers would need to overtake the Lions in the NFC North and finish the season a game ahead of the Eagles to clinch the No. 1 seed.

The Vikings enter Week 14 in fifth place in the NFC, despite having the same record as the Eagles. Minnesota also trails the 7-5 Seahawks and the 6-6 Falcons because, like the Eagles, Seattle and Atlanta are division leaders.

The Eagles didn’t play the Vikings, and if both teams win out they would finish the season with identical 10-2 conference records. So a tiebreaker with the Vikings could come down to their record against common opponents. The Eagles’ win against the Rams helps here, as the Vikings lost to Los Angeles in Week 8. But the Eagles’ blown lead against the Falcons back in Week 2 could come back to bite them, since the Vikings face Atlanta on Sunday.

While the Eagles will need to wait at least a week before they have a chance to clinch the NFC East, the Birds have multiple paths to secure a playoff spot Sunday. Funny enough, two involve the Packers’ losing Thursday.

Here are the scenarios, according to NFL playoffs analyst Joe Ferreira (excluding ties):

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