Eagles beat writers make their predictions for the Giants game in Week 16
The Eagles will look to snap their three-game losing skid with a division matchup against the New York Giants on Christmas Day.
The struggling Eagles host the New York Giants on Christmas Day. Here are our beat writers’ game predictions.
Jeff McLane
The Giants aren’t a good team. They’ve won a few scrappy games of late with replacement quarterback Tommy DeVito, but the Giants are among the lowest-ranked teams in most statistical categories, especially on offense. Numbers aside, they don’t pass the eye test of a squad that could possibly knock off the Eagles, even coming off a three-game losing streak that has the team in tatters. But for prosperity, let’s take a look at the Giants’ offensive statistics. They’re second-to-last in the NFL in points per drive, yards per drive, DVOA, EPA per play, and rush and dropback success. Well, at least there’s one worse offense in the league.
Defensively, they’re in the bottom third of the NFL in most categories, but clearly the offense’s inability to stay on the field has affected Wink Martindale’s unit’s productivity. Martindale’s defense does force turnovers (a ninth-best 22) and it does get off the field on third down (eighth-best in the NFL). But it has struggled on early downs, particularly in stopping the run. The Eagles may have unlocked some of the secret sauce that’s been missing from their ground attack last week in Seattle. They got the plus-one quarterback rush game going with Jalen Hurts, which in turn created some space before contact for running back D’Andre Swift. The suggestion here isn’t to force the run game. But with Hurts and the passing game not clicking on all cylinders, if Martindale wants to play two high safeties a bunch, there’s no reason for the quarterback to not hand the ball off.
Of course, the Giants’ pass defense also offers an opportunity for the Eagles to get their air game back on track. Explosive plays have sorely been lacking the last three weeks, and outside cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson and rookie Deonte Banks are ripe for picking. It doesn’t just have to be A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert that Hurts is targeting. Few are arguing for more of Quez Watkins, but certainly receivers Julio Jones and Olamide Zaccheaus and tight end Jack Stoll could warrant a few more attempts to open space for the big guns.
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The Eagles’ offense should have plenty of chances assuming their defense plays no worse than par against one of the more ineffective offenses in the NFL. Running back Saquon Barkley has really been the only consistent big play threat, but the Giants offensive line is once again a giant liability. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is solid, but the rest of the group is subpar. It should be the remedy for the Eagles’ listless pass rush. Matt Patricia schemed up a more aggressive game plan than Sean Desai had employed in recent weeks. Of course, it made sense with Seahawks backup Drew Lock under center. But he didn’t blitz much, and when it was crunch time, a few of his aggressive coverage calls backfired.
DeVito warrants the same amount of concern, but nothing is guaranteed with the way the Eagles have played over the last three weeks. That said, I think this game offers the perfect opportunity to bounce back in front of a festive home crowd. I think the Eagles will win convincingly. Will it look clean enough to please the natives who are only looking to February? Probably not. But you got to start somewhere.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Giants 13
If early returns are any indication, the rookie cornerback tandem of Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean could be primed to have a big impact on the franchise’s fortunes. What’s clicked for the youngsters, both separately and collectively, that’s allowed them to earn starting roles this early in their careers? How does their relationship contrast on and off the field? The Inquirer's Jeff McLane profiles the Birds’ budding defensive backfield duo — plus, he goes inside the weight room to highlight an area where second-stringer Kenny Gainwell has Saquon Barkley beat. Listen here.
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Olivia Reiner
The Eagles are officially finished with their midseason gauntlet, going 3-3 in that span. They’ll look to snap their three-game losing streak when the Giants visit on Christmas Day. Let’s call a spade a spade — the 5-9 Giants are bad, and this should be a get-well game for a hungry Eagles team. If not, well, yikes.
The Giants have struggled this year, especially offensively, on the heels of their first season with a finish above .500 since 2016 (9-7-1 in 2022; .559). They currently rank second-to-last in the league in points (189), yards (3,664), and third-down conversion percentage (29.4%). Their passing game is especially dismal on the season (32nd in yards, 27th in touchdowns). However, the highly-marketable DeVito, who took over for the injured Daniel Jones on a full-time basis in Week 10, has had some solid performances. In his five starts, the Giants are 3-2, including wins against the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, and Green Bay Packers.
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That said, DeVito doesn’t fare well under pressure, in part thanks to the mostly lackluster offensive line in front of him (aside from left tackle Andrew Thomas). According to Pro Football Focus, DeVito has the highest percentage of pressures turned into sacks among 32 quarterbacks that have faced pressure on at least 80 dropbacks this season. On the 89 dropbacks in which he faced pressure, DeVito has been sacked 35 times (39.3%). The next closest is Jones at 31.6%.
Considering the Eagles defensive front has struggled to affect the quarterback lately, they have the potential to make a substantial impact come Monday. That will be especially important given the banged-up nature of the secondary and inside linebacker corps, as cornerback Darius Slay is still out after undergoing knee surgery and inside linebackers Nicholas Morrow (abdominal) and Zach Cunningham (knee) have missed practice all week. The only two healthy inside linebackers on the active 53-man roster are Shaquille Leonard (signed in Week 14) and Ben VanSumeren (a 2023 undrafted free agent).
Meanwhile, the Eagles offense is looking to rebound after failing to reach 20 points scored in each of their last three games. The Giants defense is in the same realm as the Seahawks’ — they’re not all good collectively (No. 25 in points allowed, No. 24 in yards against), but they have some talented individuals, including defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, linebacker Bobby Okereke, and safety Xavier McKinney. Still, on paper, the Eagles have the personnel to overcome this defense. It’s just a matter of the coaching staff putting them in position to succeed, and I think they can do it against a lowly Giants team.
Prediction: Eagles 28, Giants 14
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Josh Tolentino
For just the second time under Nick Sirianni’s watch, the Eagles have lost three consecutive games. There are multiple questions about the current state of the team, and whether or not it can be competitive against the league’s best when the playoffs arrive. But for now, the Eagles are scheduled to face the Giants twice over three weeks. This seems like a get-right spot for the skidding Eagles, who are 2-0 on Christmas Day and 10-0 against the Giants at home since 2014.
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While DeVito has directed a few wins and gained a few enamored fans from across the league along the way, the Giants are still a struggling unit that has regressed immensely under 2022 Coach of the Year winner Brian Daboll. The Eagles have struggled to apply consistent pressure over the past several weeks — defensive end Josh Sweat has not registered a sack in the past five games — but that tide could change against the oft-pressured DeVito. Linebacker remains a concern. Cunningham and Morrow haven’t practiced all week, leaving just Leonard and VanSumeren as the team’s only options on the active roster. The Eagles also could elevate former Penn State linebacker Brandon Smith from the practice squad.
Offensively, the coaching staff — led by Sirianni and coordinator Brian Johnson — along with Hurts, desperately need to show improvement over these final three weeks of the regular season. Hurts has fumbled in seven straight games, and he’s thrown a career-high 12 interceptions. The Eagles are confident in their options outside in Brown and Smith, and Goedert’s return to the lineup has helped open things underneath and across the middle. It’ll be up to Hurts to process his reads quickly and deliver accurate balls to his pass-catchers. Ultimately, Sirianni’s group not only needs to get back in the win column, it also needs to show some level of dominance that would provide the Eagles with a needed confidence boost as the final chapter of the season approaches. As the cliche goes, it’s a week-to-week league. But everyone is aware of the potential challenges — and rematches — that await in the playoffs.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17
EJ Smith
The Eagles can’t lose this game, can they?
The Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They rank dead last in DVOA and, when looking at their roster, it’s not difficult to figure out why. They lack firepower in the passing game, have a shaky offensive line and a defense that ranks 25th in both points allowed and DVOA.
Injuries at linebacker could make Giants tight end Darren Waller a problem for the Eagles’ suspect pass defense, but the defensive front must view this upcoming matchup as a holiday gift. DeVito has been pressured on 41% of his dropbacks this season, which ranks 34th out of 42 qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. He has been sacked five times a game since taking over as the starter and is coming off a loss to the Saints in which he went down seven times.
All this to say the Eagles should be able to get to DeVito. The Eagles haven’t recorded more than three sacks in a game since Week 9. I think that changes on Monday night.
Things may not come as easily for the offense, but there’s still reason to believe the Eagles can put up the necessary points to come out victorious. The Giants defense is feisty mostly thanks to a talented defensive front led by the nose tackle Lawrence. Jason Kelce fared well enough against the All-Pro interior lineman in the playoffs last year, but he’s enough of a handful on all three downs to present problems. Especially with Sua Opeta expected to start in place of Landon Dickerson on Monday, Lawrence’s presence will have to be accounted for.
Even if the Eagles offense doesn’t walk out of this matchup completely back on track, this game doesn’t have the makings of the shootouts we’ve seen this team lose in recent weeks. I think the Eagles steady the ship, barring any Christmas miracles from DeVito.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Giants 16
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The Eagles will host the New York Giants on Christmas Day. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and Jeff McLane as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.