Bijan or bust: Why the Eagles should go all-in on the best running back in the NFL draft in years

Drafting a running back in the first round is foolish. Drafting a running back in the top 10 is crazy.

Then again, given the proper circumstance, you always make an exception. The Eagles have a four-year window in which to make Super Bowl runs. Those runs have a better chance of ending in titles with a premier running back. Texas star Bijan Robinson is that back. They should draft him Thursday night.

The only circumstance that makes more sense than bagging Bijan is trading up for Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Carter’s the best player in the draft. They always need talent on their defensive line. But Seattle’s going to draft Carter at No. 5, so it’s Bijan or bust. Make South Philly Mr. Robinson’s neighborhood.

Here’s why.

Right tackle Lane Johnson’s contract expires in 2026, or four years. So does wide receiver A.J. Brown’s. They’re the Eagles’ two best offensive players. You must win now, with them.

» READ MORE: Eagles draft: Bijan Robinson or the field? Breaking down running back prospects

If history is any indicator, the most important player’s window isn’t infinite, either. Running quarterback Jalen Hurts just signed a $255 million contract extension that the Eagles can escape — again, in 2026. It is imperative that the Eagles keep him as healthy as possible while Johnson and Brown are around. This is a challenge.

In the past two years, Hurts has had two ankle surgeries. He injured his throwing shoulder near the end of the 2022 season. In the history of the NFL, among quarterbacks, only Lamar Jackson has ever run as often as Hurts has in consecutive seasons. He led the NFL in QB runs in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Jackson then failed to finish the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Jackson is 26. Hurts is 24.

By the time Hurts is 29, his mileage will be incredibly high. Adding a back like Robinson might mitigate that. His presence should convince the Eagles to call fewer running plays for Hurts, if only because there have seldom been backs like Robinson.

The time is now.

If this sounds like heresy, I plead guilty. I’ve earned this, though.

In 1999, when everyone from talk radio hosts to the mayor to the back page of the Philadelphia Daily News begged the Birds to draft Texas running back Ricky Williams, I was the voice in the wilderness saying, “Don’t take Ricky.” I understood what the 49ers and Packers had done, and what the Rams and Patriots soon would do. It feels like I’m leaving a cult that I helped create after it finally has gained validation. Incredibly, it’s for a running back from Texas. So be it. Robinson is a four-year answer, no more. Splurge.

» READ MORE: The Eagles can’t afford to splurge on Texas superstar Bijan Robinson — or any running back

The Eagles would have to spend about $23 million on Robinson in his first four seasons. That’s $18 million more than they spent on the first four seasons for Miles Sanders, a second-round pick in 2019. It would be money well-spent.

The Eagles could pick up Robinson’s fifth-year option, too, which might be $13 million more. Then they would be highly unlikely — after five years of pounding — to offer Robinson a lucrative extension. This is not the best way to build a team.

It is generally poor form to draft a player in the top 15 and not sign him to a second contract. These are supposed to be 10-year players, like Johnson, Fletcher Cox, and Brandon Graham have been; as they hoped Carson Wentz and Derek Barnett would be.

Again, not the best way to build a team. It is, however, the best way to win a Super Bowl or two.

There are qualifications to this departure from current draft dogma.

Robinson would have to be exponentially better than the backs they already have. He is. Rashaad Penny has played 18 games in his last three seasons. Kenneth Gainwell gained less than 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his first two seasons; Sanders, who just left as a free agent, gained almost 2,400 yards in his first two seasons, and the Eagles considered him unworthy of the four-year, $25.4 million deal the Panthers gave him.

» READ MORE: Ranking the Eagles’ position groups based on need ahead of the NFL draft

Robinson also has to be exponentially better than the rest of the running backs in the draft. From what I’ve seen, read, and heard he is.

He’s 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, agile, shifty, fast, tough, productive. He’s a unicorn. He’s a polished receiver, unlike Ezekiel Elliott; he could play slot receiver or tight end on Day 1. He’s a fearsome blocker, unlike Saquon Barkley. He’s 20 pounds heavier than Christian McCaffrey. A former scout I spoke with this week compared Robinson with Edgerrin James, the No. 4 overall pick in the 1999 draft. James is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Granted, the Eagles have the No. 30 pick, too. Why not wait until then to draft a back? Or maybe until Day 2?

Because the drop-off at the position is precipitous. Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs is fast and productive, but he’s 5-9 and weighs less than 200 pounds. UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet is a third-round workhorse, not a unicorn.

There are the intangibles, too. Robinson’s character is without blemish. So, in Philly, he fits with Hurts, Brown, DeVonta Smith, and second-year first-round tackle Jordan Davis. They are foundational. Brown is, too.

» READ MORE: Eagles look to maximize the team’s championship window after giving Jalen Hurts a massive extension

Generally, teams win with elite quarterbacks, excellent offensive tackles, and superior defensive linemen. Generally, teams aren’t in the Eagles’ position.

It’s almost never a bad idea to draft an offensive lineman, even if you have to stash him for a season. Here’s the problem with that in Philadelphia: Four of the positions are populated by long-term answers, and center Jason Kelce shows no signs of quitting.

The one exception, Paris Johnson Jr. from Ohio State, will be long gone when the Eagles draft. For their sake, Peter Skoronski from Northwestern might be, too; he projects as a guard, anyway. Investing a top-10 pick in an offensive lineman who you hope does not start for two or three years — especially one you expect to play on the line’s interior — is utter lunacy, especially considering the offensive line depth this year.

» READ MORE: Eagles draft candidates Jalen Carter, Bijan Robinson, Paris Johnson detail their visits ahead of the first round

Depending on whom you talk to, there are six offensive tackles among the top-30 draft prospects. After Johnson, none outshines with the others the way Robinson dwarfs the rest of the RBs. You want to draft-and-stash a lineman? Cool. Take Cody Mauch at No. 30. Those guys from North Dakota State never miss, right?

The Eagles are in a once-in-a-century situation. They have no real needs. Certainly, it’s tough for a team with no starting spots available to not add along the defensive line, but there are eight or nine promising pass rushers available on Day 1. There might be five more available among the first 16 picks of Day 2.

This time, the Eagles can afford to wait to make their offensive and defensive lines deeper.

They cannot afford to pass on a running back like Bijan Robinson.