Even after trading back in the first round, the Eagles are in a rare spot — if they stay there

If you’re still wishing the Eagles hadn’t traded down from sixth to 12th in Thursday’s first round of the NFL draft, bear in mind that the last time they chose from the 12th spot, in 2012, they took defensive tackle Fletcher Cox. That worked out well.

Their previous 12th overall pick, end Lamar “Racehorse” Davis, from Georgia, in 1943, and never played for them.

Also bear in mind that they aren’t a lock to pick 12th. General manager Howie Roseman likes nothing better than moving up and down, targeting a player here, tucking away assets there, as he did in the move from sixth to 12th, in which the Eagles obtained Miami’s first-round pick next year and the 123rd pick in the fourth round this year, for that sixth overall slot and pick 156 in the fifth round.

In fact, when they drafted Cox, the Eagles didn’t have that 12th pick until well into the draft. They traded up from 15 to get him. In five of the 10 drafts since Roseman ascended to the personnel throne in 2011, the team’s first pick has ended up not being where it was originally scheduled. (If you exclude the 2015 Chip Kelly-led draft, when Roseman was banished from personnel decisions, it’s five of nine.)

The 10-19 range has been a comfortable one for the Eagles over the past 15 years. They’ve taken Cox, defensive end Derek Barnett (14th overall in 2017), defensive end Brandon Graham (13th, 2010), wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (19th, 2009) and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley (14th, 2006), all of whom became reliable starters, even if Barnett hasn’t yet broken through to stardom, and Bunkley never became much more than solid.

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There has been talk that Roseman might move down again, depending on who gets picked in front of the Eagles’ spot. This might be a good place to note that picking in the 20s has not been productive for them. Again using 15 years as the cutoff, the output there would be: Jalen Reagor (21st), Andre Dillard (22nd), Nelson Agholor (20th), Marcus Smith (26th), and Danny Watkins (23rd).

You wouldn’t expect picks in the 20s to routinely work out as well as picks a bit higher, but the difference for the Eagles has been striking.

Of course, Roseman also could also move back up, say, to eighth, where Carolina has been shopping its pick. That’s a popular option among fans who don’t like the idea of picking directly behind the Cowboys (10th) and Giants (11th), potentially setting fans up to watch a guy the Eagles could have drafted, had they stayed at sixth, torture them twice a year for a decade or so.

NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah alluded to both trade scenarios in his recent discussion with reporters.

“If the Eagles were going to move around — which, with Howie, you always know that’s an opportunity — even when he’s at 12, I don’t know if he’s going to stay there. He’s going to go up or down again,” Jeremiah said. “If he goes up, you could make a case for somebody like a [Florida tight end and Archbishop Wood grad Kyle] Pitts on the offensive side.

“But to me, if they slide down in the draft, it’s going to point more towards the edge rush and trying to get some more young guys in there. I like [fourth-year Eagles defensive end Josh] Sweat. He’s going to be a good player. But Brandon [Graham, 33] is getting a little bit older, and so finding another guy there ... I think that defense is more front-to-back driven than back-to-front driven.”

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This was the case with former coordinator Jim Schwartz’s defense, certainly. Reporters haven’t been able to talk to new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to see how he prioritizes positions. But Jeremiah, once a member of the Eagles’ personnel department, is getting that read from defenses Gannon has worked on in Minnesota and Indianapolis. This is not said to be a great edge-rush draft.

When Roseman spoke with reporters last week, he acknowledged he has been talking to other teams about possible move-up or move-down scenarios, as he does pretty much every year.

“All of that planning and thought and conversations, they’re happening right now. We’re talking to teams in front of us and figuring out, like, what that would look like, because when you’re on the clock, that’s harder to do,” Roseman said. “You don’t want to get into a negotiation when you’re on the clock, when another team is on the clock.

“You want to make sure that you understand what they’re looking for, and what you’re willing to do. We’ll talk to teams in front of us. We’ll talk to every team in the league. We’ll talk to teams in back of us. We’ll figure out what they’d be willing to do if their guy is there.

“Now, it’s all contingent on a player being there, but we try to have all that homework done.”

If Roseman stays at 12, it will be the highest selection the team has made since drafting Carson Wentz in 2016. Since the Eagles drafted defensive tackle Corey Simon sixth overall in 2000, they have picked as high as 12th only three times.

The Eagles go into the draft with 11 selections, the most of any team in the league. They have four picks in the top 85 for the first time since 2005. (This time, let’s try to do better than Mike Patterson, Reggie Brown, Mike McCoy, and Ryan Moats. Though later on in that draft, they did get Todd Herremans and Trent Cole.)

Don’t be surprised if the team ends up not making all 11 selections. Five are in the sixth and seventh rounds of what is expected to be a pretty thin draft. The NCAA offered players an extra year of eligibility, and many took it. As of last week, fewer than 700 prospects had signed with agents, considerably less than half of last year’s total.

This makes late-round picks much less valuable in 2021 than they figure to be in 2022, when the floodgates will open, with all the players coming in who took advantage of the extra year in college. It might not be ridiculous to trade, say, a sixth and a seventh this year for a seventh next year, something you normally wouldn’t consider.

Of course, everyone in the league knows this, so finding a trade partner might be tough. It would have to be someone who really wants a particular late-round player this year and doesn’t have a pick with which to take him. Capitalizing on such situations is the sort of thing Roseman does well.