Ranking the Eagles’ potential playoff opponents from most to least favorable

Although the Eagles’ first playoff opponent is still up in the air, there’s little uncertainty about how difficult the path through the conference will be this month.

After a season spent talking about wanting to achieve the ultimate goal of reaching and winning Super Bowl LIX — or do “special stuff,” as Nick Sirianni has put it on multiple occasions this year — the only thing standing between the Eagles and their pursuit is this Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.

How is the NFC playoff picture shaping up for them? Below, we’ll rank the Eagles’ potential matchups from most to least favorable.

The Eagles split the season series with the Commanders, but the more-recent loss required a confluence of factors that aren’t likely to be replicated in a possible third meeting between these teams at Lincoln Financial Field. Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game early with a concussion, and the offense couldn’t fully capitalize on Washington’s five turnovers without him.

Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels’ consistent development in his rookie season might make for another shaky day for the Eagles defense, which conceded scoring drives on three of Washington’s final four series in the fourth quarter. Still, the group rebounded well enough against Dallas last Sunday to suggest that performance may have been a blip rather than a cause for concern for a defense that’s been dominant most of the season.

Assuming Hurts returns to the lineup for any potential playoff matchup, the Eagles have enough advantages offensively to hang in a shootout. The Commanders are the type of feisty, ascending team you’d expect to see in the wild-card round, but also one you’d expect the Eagles to beat.

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How do the Eagles win? They should be in good shape if the defense’s potential third time seeing Daniels looks more like it did in these teams’ first meeting. Even in the rematch, the defense held the Commanders to just two scoring drives on their first eight times out. Keeping the rookie signal caller from finding his rhythm could be the difference, especially if the Eagles offense gets off to another sluggish start.

How do the Eagles lose? Washington has a tendency to keep games close, for better or worse. Eleven of their 18 games have been decided by one score, and they’ve won seven of those games. Four of those wins, including the one against the Eagles, have come down to Daniels leading the offense on a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. If the Eagles let Daniels and Co. hang around, they could play playoff spoiler on the road.

It was a strange year for the Rams, who overcame some early-season injuries to win the NFC West despite some inconsistency on both sides of the ball.

They have a case to be one spot lower, especially considering their offense has scored fewer than 20 points in each of its last three games, but the Rams’ 44-42 win against the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 shows they’re capable of beating anybody.

How do the Eagles win? The same way they did in Week 12: Behind Saquon Barkley. The Rams rank 23rd in rushing yards per attempt allowed and gave up a season-worst 314 rushing yards to the Eagles in November. Any rematch likely would start with testing Los Angeles’ ability to stop the Eagles run game and go from there.

How do the Eagles lose? If the Rams offense has a stretch like they did against Buffalo, when the group scored on five of its first six drives to take a 38-21 lead assisted by a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Especially with how prone the Eagles offense has been to stumbling out of the gate, an early deficit could spell trouble.

Tampa Bay — specifically Todd Bowles — might be the hardest potential matchup to pin down among the NFC playoff contenders.

The Buccaneers still have some work to do to secure the NFC South and the No. 4 seed that will go to them or the Atlanta Falcons depending on Week 18 results, but if they get in, it would be hard to shake previous meetings if a rematch is in store.

Of all the defensive coaches in the league, Bowles has consistently given Hurts the most trouble with his exotic blitzes and athletic linebacking corps. Tampa Bay has been playing well offensively recently as well, even with star wideout Chris Godwin out for the season, behind a running game ranked No. 3 in yards per attempt and No. 4 in total yardage.

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How do the Eagles win? By running the ball well and stopping it on the other side. Hurts has taken noticeable strides taking care of the football since the Eagles’ Week 4 loss to Tampa earlier this season, but this game could come down to which of these top-five rushing offenses are able to take control of things.

How do the Eagles lose? We’ve seen the formula for an Eagles loss to the Bucs already, although any potential matchup this postseason would be at Lincoln Financial Field rather than Raymond James Stadium. Contending with Bowles’ system and the challenges he presents for Hurts in the run game and in the secondary will be a major question.

Things tighten up considerably between the next three teams, each of which have earned the title “Super Bowl contender” for their work during the regular season. With that said, there’s a case the Packers should be higher on this list, but the fact that the Eagles would only see them with home-field advantage, along with their injuries at cornerback, make them the lesser of the remaining evils.

Green Bay is no slouch, though. Jordan Love is the type of high-level quarterback who can bring volatility even in a game in which his offense is overmatched, which would be the case considering Green Bay’s unheralded wide receiver corps. And while the Packers’ record has them staring down the No. 7 seed going into the weekend, their only losses since facing the Eagles in Week 1 have come against the last two teams on this list.

How do the Eagles win? Plenty has changed between these two teams since their meeting in São Paulo, Brazil, especially in the secondary for both sides. That could make the difference, with Jaire Alexander out for the year and the Packers starting a pair of Carrington Valentine and Keisean Nixon presenting a favorable matchup for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

How do the Eagles lose? Love likely will be the author of any first-round upset, but the Packers running game also needs to be kept in check if this is the first-round matchup. Green Bay ranks seventh in rushing yards per attempt and have a play-caller in Matt LaFleur who can exploit opposing defenses with play-action and misdirection when the offense is multidimensional.

The Vikings are, in a way, the inverse of the Packers in terms of potential playoff matchups. Who they have at quarterback may not keep you up at night, but the composition of the team and the coaching staff certainly should.

Minnesota ranks third in rushing yards per carry allowed, first in takeaways, and fourth in third-down percentage. That helps explain how, even after losing starting rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy early in the preseason, Minnesota finds itself playing for the top seed in the NFC this Sunday against the Detroit Lions on the road. And while Sam Darnold may not have the track record as an impact player in big moments during his career, he’s been one of the league’s most productive quarterbacks this season operating out of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system.

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Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has one of the more distinct schemes in the league as well. He hasn’t used as much man coverage as he has in years past, but the foundation of his scheme is still based around an aggressive front that often sends extra rushers to generate pressure on quarterbacks and stuff the run. His group blitzes 38% of the time, which leads the NFL by a sizable margin.

How do the Eagles win? Similar to the Packers answer, the Eagles will need to take advantage of the matchups on the outside. Doing so will require Hurts to diagnose the variety of looks Flores throws at opposing quarterbacks and be quick and decisive with the ball, something we’ve seen in spurts from him this season but not consistently. It’s possible the Eagles can run the ball even against this highly ranked defensive front, but the numbers suggest Minnesota is more susceptible through the air than on the ground.

How do the Eagles lose? No team has more interceptions than the Vikings. Winning the turnover battle has been almost synonymous with winning for the Eagles during Sirianni’s tenure — two of their three losses this season have come when they finish with a negative differential — and Hurts has done much better protecting the ball since the early bye week. The Vikings are more opportunistic than anyone the Eagles have faced this season, which could make the difference in a potential meeting.

Even more so than Minnesota, the Lions’ ranking hinges on whether they’d be traveling to Lincoln Financial or hosting the Eagles at Ford Field in this potential matchup. They’ve only played in outdoor stadiums in three of their eight road games, and it’s fair to wonder how Detroit quarterback Jared Goff might fare in unforgiving elements against an elite team.

Perhaps it’s somewhat nitpicky, but that’s because the Lions have established themselves as one of the best teams in the league this season with a tendency for lopsided results. And if they beat Minnesota on Sunday, they’ll go into the postseason with just two losses and the path out of the NFC running through their dome.

Detroit has dealt with a litany of injuries, particularly on defense, that take some of the sting out of the group’s pass rush. Still, the Lions have survived a loaded NFC North en route to 14 wins and even their most recent loss came against another Super Bowl hopeful in the Buffalo Bills.

How do the Eagles win? The Lions have one of the most creative and explosive offenses in the NFL, largely thanks to offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. The group ranks No. 1 in scoring offense and No. 2 in total offense, which would set up a meeting between one of the league’s best offenses against one of its best defenses led by Eagles coordinator Vic Fangio. If Fangio can win the chess match and contain Goff in this potential meeting, it’s a lot easier to see the path toward the Eagles winning.

How do the Eagles lose? There aren’t many metrics where the Lions defense ranks highly, but the group is No. 1 in third-down percentage against and tied for third in interceptions. If the Eagles can’t sustain drives or lose the turnover battle, it’s hard to see the offense keeping pace with the Lions, especially at Ford Field.

The Eagles play in Week 18 against the New York Giants. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.