Late-game decision making in the Eagles’ loss to the Falcons turned up the heat on Nick Sirianni

The only numbers that ultimately matter — Atlanta Falcons 22, Eagles 21 — can’t capture how the final minutes unfolded Monday night.

But the analytics of Nick Sirianni’s decision-making, when the Eagles seemingly had the outcome in hand, tell the story of a coach whose conservatism led to a win probability in the 90th percentile with under 2 minutes remaining to near-zero when Jalen Hurts’ last pass was intercepted by Jessie Bates.

A multitude of reasons led to the Eagles’ first loss of the season. Pick your poison: The defensive line couldn’t stop the run or pressure Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins. The passing offense couldn’t function at a high level without injured wide receiver A.J. Brown.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni needs Eagles defense to bail him out. Bryce Huff, Josh Sweat, Jordan Davis, and Jalen Carter can’t do it.

New coordinators Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio were inconsistent play callers, especially the latter during the Falcons’ game-winning drive. Saquon Barkley, who may have been the best player on the field for 58 minutes, dropped a third-down pass that would have sealed the victory. And on and on.

But Sirianni’s decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-3 with 1 minute, 42 seconds left, giving his team a 21-15 lead, spoke volumes about his seemingly tenuous hold on the Eagles.

The third-down pass attempt that preceded it will generate most second-guessing from fans and media types. Why not run it there and burn more time off the clock with the Falcons out of timeouts? It’s a fair critique.

The more telling one, though, is: Why aggressively throw the ball there to end the game and not be similarly aggressive and go for it on fourth down?

“In that scenario, I was thinking they might not have any timeouts there, but, obviously, they did with the incomplete pass,” Sirianni said. “You know, but that would’ve come down to maybe a minute, so we wanted to go up six points; it didn’t work.”

According to Next Gen Stats, kicker Jake Elliott’s 28-yard field goal dropped their win probability from 94% to 85%. Some others from the analytics community, like Ben Baldwin of “4th down decision bot” on X, had a 3.1 win percentage increase if Sirianni had gone for it.

But his recommendation still was strongly in favor of rolling the dice. The numbers, of course, don’t take into account the human element. Cousins had mostly been incapable of throwing outside the numbers up until that point, and surely the Eagles defense would have prevented him from downfield completions.

It took him all of four passes, however, to advance the Falcons to the Eagles’ 7-yard line. And then after one incomplete throw into the end zone, Cousins hit receiver Drake London for a touchdown after cornerback Darius Slay bit on a double move.

The seemingly impossible occurred. The numbers were in Sirianni’s favor, but it doesn’t take a mathematician to compute that his hot seat odds just went up.

Game management is his primary function after he gave up offensive play calling three seasons ago. And after he surrendered his scheme in the offseason — or was forced to — it’s essentially the only part of the game he can directly impact.

That statement isn’t meant to diminish Sirianni’s role as the head coach. His fingerprints are all over the direction of the team. But if he can’t get fourth downs and timeouts consistently right, it’s a problem.

Penalties fall on the coach, too, because too many can be an indictment of how practices are run. How are the Eagles still getting called for illegal offensive linemen downfield on run-pass options? Wasn’t that a first season issue?

But here we are, four years into Sirianni’s tenure, and the Eagles were flagged three times for the infraction.

“Some of them are on us as coaches; some of them are on a player going too fast,” Sirianni said. “We coach that, not to go too fast. But some of them are on us in certain scenarios when we call them.”

Sirianni was more aggressive on fourth downs earlier in the game. He went for it on the Eagles’ second series on fourth-and-4 at the Falcons’ 9. But he had Hurts drop on third and fourth down. Why not run it on third knowing he would gamble on fourth?

“You can’t just be every time it’s third-and-3 you say you’re going to run it,” Sirianni said. “Teams obviously pick up on that if every time you’re third-and-3 you’re going to run it and set yourself up for fourth down.”

» READ MORE: The Eagles ran the ball the way they had to on Monday ... until they didn’t on the game’s most pivotal play

But Barkley had rushed four times for 39 yards earlier in the drive. He was pulled for two plays, and his backup Kenneth Gainwell had two carries for 6 yards. When Barkley returned, fans cheered, but he never saw the ball.

There were successful fourth-down tries. The Eagles were more effective with the Tush Push. And the choice to have Hurts throw it to Barkley wasn’t a bad one. He was open and the pass hit the running back in the hands. He just dropped it.

“They were running a certain defense and junking it up in the middle,” Sirianni said, “so we were trying to go around the outside, and it didn’t work.”

Neither did the original third-and-3 play. The Eagles had Fred Johnson line up as tackle-eligible. But either something was off with the operation or Johnson got on the field too late and Sirianni had to burn a timeout rather than take a delay-of-game penalty.

Cameras caught the coach yelling in the direction of Johnson after the TO.

“We were planning on going a delay there and taking our timeout to try to go there,” Sirianni said. “So, nothing. That wasn’t on Fred.”

He’s right. That’s, ultimately, on him. Moore may make all the offensive play calls, but Sirianni can overrule, and he certainly has final say on fourth downs.

“Any time it doesn’t work out, you know, that’s why I’m sitting in this seat, the head coaching seat,” Sirianni said. “I’ve got to be ready for the consequences of whether it works or doesn’t work.”

It’s still early in the season, of course. The Eagles weren’t the only “playoff contender” to lose this weekend. The San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys dropped games in the NFC. The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens — two popular Super Bowl picks in the AFC — are 0-2.

The Eagles opened 10-1 last season despite some dubious wins. This season’s opening victory over the Packers in Brazil felt a little like 2023 pre-meltdown. But the home opener felt more like early last season — except they lost.

Are the Eagles that much better than they were nine months ago when Sirianni nearly got fired? Only time will tell. But his conservative decision-making may be what turns up the heat on him the most.

» READ MORE: Nick Sirianni is coaching for his job in 2024. To keep it, he has to show he’s matured. Oh, the Eagles have to win.

His lack of nerve cost him in the Super Bowl two years ago. Second-guessing Sirianni’s game management might seem picky, but his boss has long been a proponent of aggressive-minded decision making.

Before the game, Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie took his normal spot on the sideline during warmups and greeted an assortment of NFL dignitaries from his perch. At one point, Bill Belichick walked over and the two chatted.

Belichick is working in the media this season, but he wants to return to coaching. Lurie reportedly weighed the idea of hiring the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach before deciding to bring Sirianni back.

Their conversation on Monday night was brief, but as Belichick walked along the Eagles sideline, it was hard to not imagine a scenario in the future where he might actually be there in a midnight green hoodie.