Eagles-Packers film breakdown: What Vic Fangio’s defense can expect from Matt LaFleur in playoff opener

As it sits currently, the Eagles season is bookended by matchups against the Green Bay Packers.

How the Eagles defense fares in the rematch may determine whether that remains the case beyond Sunday, or if the Birds will once again get the better of Jordan Love and an explosive Packers offense.

How, if at all, does the Week 1 matchup from São Paulo, Brazil inform Sunday’s game at Lincoln Financial Field? Let’s look at the film to find out:

Much like the Eagles, the Packers became one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL since taking a balanced approach in the opener. The Eagles finished the regular season ranked second in early-down run frequency, according to rbsdm.com. The only team to eclipse their 53.7% early-down run rate was the Packers at 57.3%.

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Also like the Eagles, the Packers have leaned heavily on the run on first down for good reason. They rank second in estimated points added per rush, sixth in yards per attempt, and have built their offense around the favorable situations a productive run game can create for the pass game. It’s true that every offense is at its best when operating out of manageable down-and-distances, but the Packers’ play-action-heavy system makes them especially difficult to deal with when the run game keeps the offense on schedule.

Those effective early-down runs were apparent in Brazil, where the Packers managed 163 rushing yards against an Eagles defense that had yet to hit its stride. Consecutive rushing plays midway through the second quarter led to the Packers taking an early lead, starting with backup running back Emanuel Wilson breaking free for an 18-yard gain on a misdirection run.

Lined up in a shotgun formation with Wilson on the weak side, the Packers pulled both guard Sean Rhyan and tight end Tucker Kraft across the formation to displace linebacker Nakobe Dean and edge rusher Josh Sweat at the point of attack. With linebacker Zack Baun also getting washed down by left tackle Rasheed Walker, Wilson was able to break off the type of gain the Eagles defense has seldom conceded since making significant strides in tackling and discipline midway through the year.

The next call, an end-around to wide receiver Jayden Reed for a 33-yard touchdown, could be something the Packers bring with them to the rematch.

It’s hard to pin Reed’s big gain on any single Eagles defender, mostly because of how many poor angles the group took on the play. But it’s fair to point out the defense made significant improvements on plays like these midway throughout the year.

Still, while the Eagles’ run defense has evolved plenty since Week 1, so has the Packers’ run game. In the team’s 27-25 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17, the Packers averaged 4.3 yards per attempt while showing some creativity with two-running back formations on early downs to stay ahead of the chains.

Running back Josh Jacobs’ 6-yard run in the first quarter may not look like much on film, but those runs have often given Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur license to get creative in the passing game.

For as difficult as it will be to translate the Eagles’ Week 1 run defense to this upcoming rematch against Green Bay, reviewing the way the secondary played in Brazil feels almost like an exercise in futility.

Watching the Eagles’ defensive backs dropping to spots on the field and occasionally failing to pass off deep crossing routes serves as a reminder of how far defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s group has come since the early-season woes.

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The Eagles have utilized much more of the “match” zone coverages Fangio has become well-known for since the Sept. 6 matchup, passing off individual routes when necessary instead of dropping into specific areas.

While a handful of the explosive plays managed by Green Bay in the opener fall at the feet of Avonte Maddox struggling as the team’s starting slot corner, there are a few examples, like Reed’s 70-yard touchdown catch, where the secondary was caught in an unfavorable zone coverage call.

The signs of the Eagles defense’s improvement handling concepts like the one above with match zone coverages resulted in a full-circle moment a few months later against the Dallas Cowboys. Cooper DeJean, who replaced Maddox at slot corner after the team’s early season bye week, stuck with the vertical route run by Dallas receiver Jalen Brooks instead of passing it off to safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson in a three-deep zone.

Zone coverage particulars aside, the Eagles may be better off mixing in a fair amount of man coverage on Sunday, considering the Packers’ recent results.

Facing Minnesota in Week 17, the Packers struggled against Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ aggressive approach. Flores’ group led the league in blitz rate during the regular season and has a tendency to call man coverage or single-high zone looks behind the extra rushers, something that led to Love finishing the loss with just 185 passing yards and one touchdown on 30 attempts.

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Love didn’t have an interception, but he did put the ball in harm’s way early in the first quarter against a Minnesota blitz. The Vikings called Cover 1 with a single middle-field safety over the top and got enough pressure to force Love to overthrow Reed on a slant route that nearly ended in a pick for Minnesota safety Harrison Smith.

Especially considering the Packers will be without Christian Watson, who has served as the team’s primary deep threat this season before suffering a season-ending knee injury last weekend against the Bears, the Eagles should be able to mirror the Vikings’ success by sticking with Green Bay’s receiving corps in man coverage, even on deep shots.

With the Packers facing first-and-10 halfway through the fourth quarter, Minnesota sent five rushers and got solid coverage across the board on the back end to force an incomplete pass from Love.

In response to the amount of man coverage the Vikings used, Green Bay utilized a handful of concepts to counter it. Chief among them was the mesh concept the Eagles have used often themselves to combat man coverage.

Facing third-and-4 midway through the second quarter, Love found Romeo Doubs for a first down on a shallow crosser freed up by the traffic created by the intersecting route.

Green Bay’s offense and the Eagles’ defense have implemented plenty of wrinkles since these two teams began their respective seasons against one another in Brazil. If the Eagles are able to account for the counters, both from their season-opening matchup and the recent games each team has played, they have the matchup advantages and the track record to make the rematch look quite different than Round 1 in São Paulo.