Eagles vs. Packers predictions: Our writers make their picks for a Week 1 matchup in Brazil

The Eagles will play Friday against the Green Bay Packers in São Paulo, Brazil. Here are predictions from our writers for Week 1.

This matchup alone is a great opener, but the NFL added intrigue by making it the first game to be held in South America. How much of an impact will the new environs have on either team? It might not make much of a difference. But the squad that handles the travel and conditions best could have an advantage. I’m focused more on what happens between the lines and think the Eagles will need a few weeks to get comfortable with two new coordinators in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. Nick Sirianni rested Jalen Hurts and his offensive starters for the second straight preseason, and we saw how rusty the unit was in last season’s opener.

Prediction: Packers 27, Eagles 23

How different does the defense look with Fangio, the originator of the scheme the Eagles ran a variation of last season? We’re going to find out fast. Week 1 always brings a lot of unknowns, and this one — with two new coordinators and a completely revamped defense — is chock-full of them. But the Eagles are the better team on paper and are the slight favorite. With no other data to go off of, that’s the methodology here.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Packers 27

I’m uneasy about this Eagles defense in its matchup against the Packers offense, particularly regarding their pass rush and their linebacking corps. As Fangio said earlier this week, Green Bay was one of the best play-action teams in the league last year, which could put a lot of stress on the unproven Eagles linebackers. On the other side, Hurts and the offensive line surely will face the blitz early on after struggling against it last season. While I think the Eagles offense will be better equipped for success this time around, I’m unsure about the defense going into their first game against Jordan Love and his group of young, talented receivers.

Prediction: Packers 28, Eagles 24

Putting aside the grandeur of this game being played abroad and the anticipation that comes with that, Friday night will be a meeting of two of the NFC’s best teams. The Eagles have been successful in each of their three season openers with Sirianni at the helm, although it’s fair to point out that their last two openers have been slightly disjointed games in which the offense went through a dry spell. It’s also worth mentioning, of the three opponents, only the Detroit Lions in 2022 went on to have a winning record that season. The Packers are going to be stiff competition, comparatively. It should be a close game, but Green Bay’s play-action scheme and the potential for some offensive rust for the Eagles might be too much to contend with in this international slate.

Prediction: Packers 31, Eagles 27

The Eagles will play Friday night against the Green Bay Packers in São Paulo, Brazil. It won’t just be the team’s first game of the 2024 season, it will also be the NFL’s first game in South America.

Here are the full predictions from our writers for Week 1.

Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio have been around long enough for the Packers to know of their schemes. But aside from the preseason, they haven’t seen the new Eagles coordinators with this collection of players. So coach Nick Sirianni’s team arrives in Brazil with a little mystery, particularly on offense. Moore’s system will look noticeably different with increased pre-snap and at-the-snap motion and bunch formations. Wide receiver DeVonta Smith will line up more in the slot. New running back Saquon Barkley and his backups will be more involved in the passing game. And, most importantly, quarterback Jalen Hurts will have more opportunities to get the ball out quick, especially vs. the blitz.

The Packers, with new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, likely will test Hurts early by sending extra rushers. Eagles coaches worked extensively on giving Hurts more answers vs. the blitz this offseason. Jason Kelce is gone, so the quarterback is expected to have more responsibility in setting protections, although new center Cam Jurgens will help. The offense should be ready, but Mike Tyson once had a retort for the best-laid plans. Hafley likely will concentrate his pressures on right guard Mekhi Becton, who won the job in camp, but has never played the position. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark alone could give Becton all he can handle, although the Eagles likely will slide protection to the right. Green Bay also has a couple of above-average edge rushers in Rashan Gary and Quay Walker. The Packers have a top outside cornerback in Jaire Alexander, who could follow receiver A.J. Brown. But the new-look Eagles offense should have chances to reach the end zone. Hurts just has to protect the ball, something he struggled to do last season.

The Packers offense isn’t as much of a secret. Coach Matt LaFleur runs his version of Kyle Shanahan’s system, which means he should run it almost as much as he has quarterback Jordan Love throw it. The Packers’ backfield will look completely different than it did a year ago. Aaron Jones is gone, and AJ Dillon is done for the season with a neck injury. In their places will be free agent Josh Jacobs and rookie MarShawn Lloyd. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing two years ago, but he averaged only 3.45 yards a carry last season. Leaving the Raiders for a run-friendly offense should have him looking more like himself. Fangio should use a fair amount of base personnel with LaFleur just as likely to utilize two-tight end sets as he would three receivers. Nose tackle Jordan Davis should have an advantage over center Josh Myers, although he’s just as likely to see double-teams, which would play into Fangio’s plans. If Davis can clog the middle, Fangio won’t have to steal resources from his back to stop the run.

The Packers will utilize play-action, which should test off-ball linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun. Dean had a strong training camp and beat out Devin White for the middle spot. White was left home with an ankle injury. Dean will be under a microscope and may have to spy Love, who can scramble for yards. Love was among the best quarterbacks in the league by the second half of last season. The 49ers tripped him up in the second round of the playoffs, but he improved by leaps and bounds in his first season as the starter. Many prognosticators have Green Bay among the NFC’s top teams, and Love’s progression is a major reason why. He didn’t have a go-to receiver last season, but that seemed almost by LaFleur’s design. The Eagles remade their secondary after a disastrous 2023. No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay returns, as does safety Reed Blankenship. But safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson came via free agency, Quinyon Mitchell was drafted in the first round, and Isaiah Rodgers arrived off a one-year suspension. Rodgers is out with a hand injury, which means Kelee Ringo will likely fill his role. Mitchell may start on the outside before moving into the slot in nickel personnel. Packers receiver Christian Watson was hurt most of last season, but he has big-play capabilities. Fangio’s two-high shells are designed to limit explosive plays, but he can’t be passive against LeFleur’s offense, or Love will pick the Eagles defense apart.

This matchup alone is a great opener, but the NFL added intrigue by making it the first game to be held in South America. How much of an impact will the new environs have on either team? It might not make much of a difference. But the squad that handles the travel and conditions best could have an advantage. I’m focused more on what happens between the lines and think the Eagles will need a few weeks to get comfortable with two new coordinators. Sirianni rested Hurts and his offensive starters for the second straight preseason, and we saw how rusty the unit was in last season’s opener.

Prediction: Packers 27, Eagles 23

How different does the defense look with the originator of the scheme the Eagles ran a variation of last season? We’re going to find out fast.

Love and the Green Bay offense came on strong at the end of last season, and the unit is mostly intact while adding Jacobs, an All-Pro running back in 2022. The Packers scored 30.4 points per game over their final five contests, including two postseason games, in one of which they hung 48 on the Cowboys.

The new-look Eagles secondary, specifically rookie corner Mitchell, will be tested right away. And so will the Davis and Jalen Carter-led front seven.

But it’s a bit myopic to only consider the newness for the Eagles in this one.

Flip it to the other side of the ball …

While the Green Bay offense soared, its defense crumbled. The Packers ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive pass and rush DVOA numbers in the final third of the season. The Eagles had some drop-off offensively, of course, so much so that Sirianni admitted it got stale. And now that unit is in Moore’s hands.

Meanwhile, the Packers hired away Boston College head coach Hafley to run their defense, and he has turned their 3-4 scheme into a 4-3. The Packers’ front seven, with the Clark in the middle, will be a litmus test of sorts for the new center-right guard pairing of Jurgens and Becton.

Hafley’s BC teams liked to blitz on third downs, and so we’ll also learn quickly how well the Eagles have adjusted to handling that and how comfortable Hurts and Jurgens are assessing things at the line.

Week 1 always brings a lot of unknowns, and this one — with two new coordinators and a completely revamped defense — is chock-full of them.

But the Eagles are the better team on paper and are the slight favorite. With no other data to go off of, that’s the methodology here.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Packers 27

Friday’s season opener in São Paulo marks a meeting between teams that had drastically different endings to the 2023 season. The Eagles started off 10-1, lost five of their last six regular-season games, then collapsed in the wild-card round of the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Packers had practically the opposite trajectory. They went 3-6 through the first 10 weeks, then won six of their last eight to storm their way into the wild-card round. They handed the Cowboys a 48-32 defeat (perhaps the most joyous moment of the playoffs for Eagles fans after their team was eliminated one night later) before falling to the 49ers in the divisional round.

Still, both teams had similar offseasons that focused lots of their respective resources in remodeling their defenses. Both sides feature new defensive coordinators in Hafley and Fangio and starting safeties in Xavier McKinney and Gardner-Johnson. Each team added new top backs in Barkley and Jacobs. The Eagles were looking for more of a refresh on offense and hired Moore as their offensive coordinator.

Because of the changes, there are plenty of unknowns going into this game. The most striking for this new-look Eagles squad is the potential of their defense, which is filled with young faces whose positive impacts will be essential to the unit’s success. Can Davis and Carter step up in the absence of Fletcher Cox? Is Nolan Smith capable of taking on a bigger role? Can Dean be a reliable starter? How will Mitchell hold up in his NFL debut?

I’m uneasy about this Eagles defense in its matchup against the Packers offense, particularly regarding their pass rush and their linebacking corps. As Fangio said earlier this week, Green Bay was one of the best play-action teams in the league last year, which could put a lot of stress on the unproven Eagles linebackers. On the other side, Hurts and the offensive line surely will face the blitz early on after struggling against it last season. While I think the Eagles offense will be better equipped for success this time around, I’m unsure about the defense going into their first game against Love and his group of young, talented receivers.

Prediction: Packers 28, Eagles 24

Putting aside the grandeur of this game being played abroad and the anticipation that comes with that, Friday night will be a meeting of two of the NFC’s best teams.

The Packers finished last season with a surprising playoff run that suggests they might be ready to join the ranks of Super Bowl contenders in the near future. With Love signed to a long-term deal and an offensive play-caller in LaFleur who can get the most out of him, the Packers offense could give the new-look Eagles defense some early fits. The Eagles match up well enough in the secondary against a Packers receiving corps that makes up for a lack of star power with quality depth and versatility, but the play-action-heavy scheme LaFleur employs will test the Eagles’ unproven linebacking duo of Dean and Baun.

The Eagles’ pass rush, as usual, could make the difference in the game. Carter and Davis will have a favorable matchup against an inexperienced right guard regardless of whether the Packers go with first-round rookie Jordan Morgan or third-year reserve Sean Rhyan. Whoever gets one-on-one matchups will need to take advantage to get Love out of sync.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles will have to shake off any early cobwebs quickly. Sirianni elected to rest the starting offense throughout the preseason, meaning the first time Hurts and Moore go through live game reps will be at Corinthians Arena presumably without the luxury of a quiet crowd letting them operate.

Hafley’s track record suggests the Packers will use an aggressive four-man front with a single-high safety over the top, similar to the New York Jets’ approach under Robert Saleh, who had Hafley on staff with the 49ers. The single-high coverages will be good news for Hurts, who has found plenty of success targeting Brown and DeVonta Smith outside the hashes against such looks. Whether Hurts, who previously ceded protection calls at the line to Kelce, can sort out pressure looks with Jurgens will be a determining factor on how explosive the offense can be.

The Eagles have been successful in each of their three season openers with Sirianni at the helm, although it’s fair to point out that their last two openers have been slightly disjointed games in which the offense went through a dry spell. It’s also worth mentioning, of the three opponents, only the Detroit Lions in 2022 went on to have a winning record that season. The Packers are going to be stiff competition, comparatively. It should be a close game, but Green Bay’s play-action scheme and the potential for some offensive rust for the Eagles might be too much to contend with in this international slate.

Prediction: Packers 31, Eagles 27