Eagles-Packers predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for Week 12

The Eagles will host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Here are the game predictions from our Eagles beat writers for Week 12.

Aaron Rodgers revealed this week that he’s been playing with a broken thumb. The injury might explain some of the quarterback’s struggles, but not all of them. If you take away one of the best receivers in the NFL — Davante Adams — and did little to replace him, it only makes sense that the Packers’ passing game would regress. That said, the two-time reigning league MVP hasn’t looked himself for much of this season. Rodgers and coach Matt LeFleur also haven’t looked on the same page in terms of how the offense has been called. Rookie receiver Christian Watson has made some strides, catching five touchdown passes over the last two games. He has long speed the Eagles will have to guard against.

» READ MORE: Eagles have defended top receivers well, and Packers rookie Christian Watson is the next challenge

But the two names defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon likely has circled — aside from Rodgers — are Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The running backs offer a complement of speed and power in the NFL’s No. 5 rushing offense, based on Football Outsiders’ rankings. The Eagles may have cured some of their run defense problems by adding defensive tackles Linval Joseph and Ndamokung Suh, but Gannon can’t afford to go light with his boxes on run-obvious downs. Jones and Dillon will gash you. Rodgers, of course, can do the same through the air. The Eagles have yet to face a quarterback as accomplished this season. Gannon’s record against top-tier throwers the last two seasons — however subjective the definition — isn’t great. He has better talent this year, but this will no doubt be a litmus test for his scheme.

On the other side of the ball, the Packers have been among the league’s worst in stopping the run. Opposing offenses have had great success running on first and second down against Joe Barry’s unit. Green Bay’s defense has struggled vs. play-action, so it’s possible quarterback Jalen Hurts is under center more than usual. Barry leans heavy on Cover-3 zones. The Eagles just saw a fair amount of single-high safety looks in Indianapolis. They had problems getting into a rhythm against the Colts without tight end Dallas Goedert. The drop-off at the position is significant. But Nick Sirianni can’t just abandon 12- and 13- personnel when the Eagles have used the package so much this season. The run-pass option has been a go-to play for the offense, but Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen shouldn’t shy from challenging a suspect safety tandem down the middle of the field. Receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should have chances for explosive plays.

Heading into the season, this meeting might have been marked a loss. But the Packers team that won 13 games in each of the previous two seasons is no longer. Rodgers has looked at times as if he’s ready to hit the celebrity golf tour, or become Jeopardy! host, or whatever it is he may want to do post-football. But no team should underestimate his ability to turn it on when necessary. I don’t think the Eagles will. But I see another close contest that could come down to the last possession.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Packers 20

» READ MORE: Packers’ Aaron Rodgers is a familiar challenge for Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon

The Packers have not performed up to the lofty expectations many had for them going into the season, but this weekend will still be a legitimate test for an Eagles team going through a rough patch.

Rodgers hasn’t been as dominant as we’ve grown accustomed to — the veteran quarterback revealed this week he’s dealing with a broken thumb — and there’s a Davante Adams-size hole in the Packers’ receiving corps.

There’s still enough to keep the Eagles busy, though. Watson has lived up to his billing coming out of North Dakota State as a long, athletic wideout capable of making big plays. The 6-foot-5 speedster had five touchdown catches in the last two games and will be a challenge for Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the outside.

Jones is the latest in a string of talented running backs to test the Eagles run defense as well. Even though the addition of Joseph and Suh last week seemed to shore things up against the Colts, the Packers have been a much better running team than Indy this season and will be a much stiffer test. Green Bay ranks fifth in rushing efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. The Colts rank dead last in the same metric. Going off the advanced numbers, it could be another ugly outing for the run defense.

On the other side, the Eagles offense is looking to right the ship after a tough outing in Indianapolis. Both the Colts and the Washington Commanders have deeper, more talented interior defensive lines than the Packers, so running should be a bit easier. The Tennessee Titans beat the Packers with a run-first approach and the Eagles could look to do the same.

» READ MORE: Packers vs. Eagles prediction: Bet on Philly to get back on the spread-covering track

The Packers still have a talented secondary capable of challenging the Eagles’ receiving corps and could present problems for the group as it tries to figure out ways to compensate for the loss of Goedert.

As minor as it may be, there’s also each team’s sense of urgency to account for. At 4-7, Green Bay is on the brink of a lost season in the twilight of Rodgers’ career. It’s also important to mention the Packers are coming off an extended rest after playing on a Thursday night.

The Eagles have a slight talent advantage and will be at home, but the Packers are still a good enough team to take advantage of some of the weaknesses we’ve seen from the Eagles in recent weeks. Rodgers is still Rodgers, and that could be enough to upset the Eagles in prime time.

Prediction: Packers 24, Eagles 21

The Eagles offense hasn’t looked particularly crisp in recent memory. During the first eight games, the Eagles averaged 28.1 points per contest. However, over the last two weeks, the Eagles managed just 21 and 17 points.

Will the Eagles finally heat back up Sunday night? Goedert’s absence can’t be overstated. He was a key cog in the offense — with his abilities as a dynamic pass catcher and also as a gritty blocker in the run game. The Eagles will continue to adjust, although the Packers possess a talented secondary that’s headlined by cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, the former Eagle.

Top receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should eat a majority of the targets, but the Eagles might rely on running back Miles Sanders to pace them to victory. The Packers’ run defense is more than susceptible to large gains. Eagles running backs did not score over the last two weeks, but that skid could end against the Packers, who rank 24th in rush defense and 16th in points per game.

The Packers might be coming off extended rest, but this isn’t the same team that has dominated the NFC North for most of the last two decades. While there’s a lingering impact from Goedert’s injury, the Eagles offense possesses enough firepower to overcome a struggling Packers team, even with a hobbled back-to-back MVP under center.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Packers 17

Inquirer Eagles beat reporters EJ Smith and Josh Tolentino preview the team’s Week 12 game against the Green Bay Packers. Watch at Inquirer.com/EaglesGameday