The Eagles are tied for 8th in the NFL power rankings. Here’s why they’re rising | KC Joyner

Welcome to the Week 15 power rankings! There has been some notable movement in these ratings this week.

Let’s first note that the goal for this series is to identify the strongest and weakest teams in the NFL via weighted statistical measurements. This week’s edition includes some additional statistical depth, as special-teams metrics have now been added into the mix. The stats are measured both for full-season value and for value over the last four weeks, with more emphasis being placed on the last four games so that the rankings will more accurately reflect how teams have been trending recently. These metric scores are then compiled and converted into a 1-100 Power Score, with 100 being the best.

Let’s look at the Week 15 power rankings.

1 – New England Patriots (9-4), Power Score: 100

The Patriots did not play this past week, but they rank first for the second straight week on the strength of placing at the top in five of the 12 key metrics and second in another metric. New England has a two-game gauntlet coming up in matchups at Indianapolis and against Buffalo and closes the season out with what is always a tough battle at Miami, but the Patriots also have a built-in mulligan with a Week 17 home contest against Jacksonville.

» READ MORE: History doesn’t lie: Replacing Jalen Hurts is a bigger gamble than sticking with him

2 – Kansas City Chiefs (9-4), Power Score: 94

Kansas City places second in these rankings for a second consecutive week, but what stands out most about their ranking is that the Chiefs have their defense to thank for it as much as their offense. Kansas City ranks second in points allowed per drive and defensive expected points added over the last four weeks headed into the Chargers game (per TruMedia). This has shown up on the scoreboard, as the Chiefs allowed nine or fewer points in four of the last five games and 14 or fewer points in five straight contests.

T3 – Indianapolis Colts (7-6), Power Score: 83

The Colts are listed as the No. 6 seed in the AFC, but a No. 3 spot in these rankings for two consecutive weeks shows they are playing at a much higher level. A lot of the credit for this can go to Jonathan Taylor, but the reality is the entire Colts offense is playing exceptionally well, as Indianapolis ranks first in offensive points per drive over the last month. This week’s matchup against New England should go a long way toward proving if the Colts truly belong near the top of the league or if they are better placed lower down this list.

T3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3), Power Score: 83

The reason the Buccaneers don’t rate higher on this list is that their metrics were much better earlier this year than over the last four weeks. That could change, however, as Tampa Bay recently added Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Jamel Dean back to their secondary. That trio isn’t yet playing to its 2020 elite level, but if those three get back to form, the Buccaneers will be a powerhouse on both sides of the ball and will contend with New England for the top spot on this list.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts’ ankle is ‘trending upward’ and so are the Eagles’ wild-card playoff odds

5 – Los Angeles Rams (9-4), Power Score: 75

The win over the Cardinals helped propel the Rams from the No. 14 spot in the Week 14 power rankings to a top-five spot this time around. Even though their defense was key to the win over Arizona, this club is still driven by offense, as its best metric showings were placing third in points per drive since Week 11 and tied for second in offensive expected points added over the course of the entire season.

6 – Miami Dolphins (6-7), Power Score: 73

Several power rankings will hold the Dolphins’ 6-7 mark against them and use that to keep Miami out of the top 10, but these charts had the Dolphins ranked tied for eighth last week and move them up to the No. 6 rank this week after a 20-9 win over the Giants that was the fifth straight victory for Miami. The Dolphins allowed an average of 11 points in that quintet of wins and racked up 11 takeaways in that span.

7 – Denver Broncos (7-6), Power Score: 71

Denver has fared well of late against strong competition. The Broncos won four out of their last six, with victories over Washington, Dallas, and the Chargers, and their only losses were to Kansas City and the Eagles, both of whom are top-10 teams this week. The key for the Broncos’ top-10 case is that they rank in the upper third of the league in five of the six metrics for the last month, so this is a situation where recent strong performance overpowers a 3-4 start.

T8 – Arizona Cardinals (10-3), Power Score: 68

This was easily the most surprising finding this week, as the Cardinals have 10 wins to their credit. But consider why they rate this low. Arizona is 3-3 in its last six games and two of those wins came against Seattle and Chicago. The Cardinals are in the bottom half of the league in three of the six late- season metrics and have been less than stellar in stopping deep passes. This is a somewhat flawed team at the moment, and it just lost DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the regular season. The Cardinals need to correct some of these problemsd soon, or else this campaign is going to fall well short of early-season expectations.

T8 – Philadelphia Eagles (6-7), Power Score: 68

The Eagles may have the best rushing attack in the NFL right now, but their ranking here has more to do with a lack of metric weaknesses, as Nick Sirianni’s club places in the upper half of the league in all but one of the 12 metric categories that drive these rankings. The Eagles also scored 30+ points in three of the last four games and four of the last six, so they are showcasing some rare offensive firepower. If that trend continues in three matchups against the offensively challenged Washington and Giants squads in Weeks 15-17, the Eagles could clinch a playoff berth before their Week 18 matchup against Dallas.

» READ MORE: COVID wreaks havoc with the Eagles-Washington betting line

10 – Cincinnati Bengals (7-6), Power Score: 68

This is a rare case where the metrics override a subpar win-loss record, as the Bengals have lost two straight and four of their last six. Strong showings in offensive points per drive and defensive expected points added over the previous four weeks indicate that Cincinnati is playing well enough to win but just isn’t turning that performance into victories. If that trend continues, it could lead to at least a couple of wins against a schedule that includes matchups against Denver, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Cleveland, which would lead to a playoff-caliber won-loss mark for Cincinnati.

The Rest

A quick note on Green Bay is in order given its 10-3 mark and No. 15 ranking, but the Packers’ abysmal special-teams metrics and subpar defensive statistics indicate that this club will only go as far as its offense carries it.

11 – Baltimore Ravens (8-5), PS: 66

12 – San Francisco 49ers (7-6), PS: 65

13 – Dallas Cowboys (9-4), PS: 64

14 – Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), PS: 63

15 – Green Bay Packers (10-3), PS: 62

16 – Seattle Seahawks (5-8), PS: 59

17 – Buffalo Bills (7-6), PS: 56

18 – Washington Football Team (6-7), PS: 53

19 – Minnesota Vikings (6-7), PS: 52

20 – Cleveland Browns (7-6), PS: 50

21 – Tennessee Titans (9-4), PS: 47

22 – New Orleans Saints (6-7), PS: 39

23 – Atlanta Falcons (6-7), PS: 34

24 – Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1), PS: 31

25 – Chicago Bears (4-9), PS: 30

26 – Carolina Panthers (5-8), PS: 29

27 – Detroit Lions (1-11-1), PS: 27

28 – New York Giants (4-9), PS: 24

29 – Las Vegas Raiders (6-7), PS: 21

30 – Houston Texans (2-11), PS: 18

31 – New York Jets (3-10), PS: 18

32 – Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11), PS: 1

Here is this week’s gambling 10-pack, a section that reviews some of the top gambling, fantasy, and DFS plays for NFL games in Week 15 (odds per BetMGM).

1. There is an unusual trend occurring for the Chargers, as they have a defensive-oriented coach in Brandon Staley and yet tend to fare much better this year when they get into shootout contests (defined as games where both teams score 24 or more points). Los Angeles is 4-1 in shootouts and 4-4 in non-shootout contests. With the Chiefs defense playing at an elite clip (see their write-up above for more detail), a shootout game is highly unlikely in this one, so take Kansas City at -3 in this matchup.

2. The Chiefs’ defensive prowess is also showing up in fantasy football, as Kansas City has scored an incredible 54 points over the past three games. They have also scored 9+ points in five straight, a slate that included two matchups against the Raiders and a battle against Dallas, so they can be considered a quality stream start even against a strong Chargers offense. Miami is also a good stream start D/ST in a highly favorable matchup against the Jets.

3. Speaking of the Jets, Michael Carter is on track to return to New York’s starting lineup this week. He was an impact point producer before his injury and is still available in nearly 30 percent of ESPN leagues, so if Carter happens to be available in your league, put in a waiver/free agent claim immediately, as he will provide flex-caliber value during the playoffs.

4. There is another solid play in that Jets at Dolphins contests, as Miami is a good percentage wager at -8.5. The Dolphins have won five straight and all of those wins have been by at least seven points and three of them were by 11+ points. The Jets have lost five out of its last six and four of those defeats have been by 15 or more points. Those trends and the Power Rankings variance for these clubs indicate this should be a double-digit point win for Miami.

5. Fantasy managers have understandably avoided the Lions passing game by and large this year, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is an exception to this rule, as he has scored 40.1 points in PPR leagues over the past two weeks. He’s a very good high floor insurance policy in the fantasy playoffs and is a good mid-price roster play in DraftKings at $5,200.

6. Donovan Peoples-Jones posted a double-digit point total in PPR leagues on four occasions this year and has the potential to do so in the playoffs versus a schedule that includes the Raiders, Packers, and Steelers. Peoples-Jones might be a bit of a risky prospect this week due to the COVID-19 breakout in Cleveland, but he still is worth rostering for the potential value over this three-game stretch.

7. General advice headed into the fantasy playoffs — stock up on quality depth as much as you can right now. With COVID-19 cases at an all-time high in the league, it’s clear that there are going to be more instances than usual of unexpected late week roster changes and having as much quality depth as possible will be a good idea over the next three weeks.

8. Another word of advice for the fantasy playoffs. The regular season is all about playing percentages, as that pans out over time, but the fantasy postseason is all about aiming for upside. If you have an option between a ceiling play or a percentage play, you are almost always better off going for the upside candidate in the fantasy playoffs.

9. One underutilized ceiling candidate is Taysom Hill, as he is available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN leagues despite racking up 47 points over the past two weeks. He is a much better starter than a lot of quarterbacks who have been starting in front of him in fantasy leagues, so consider picking Hill up and playing him if your team is in that situation.

10. Another undervalued fantasy player is Mike Davis. The Falcons are now operating a platoon setup between Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson and that has led to Davis tallying 30.5 points over the past two weeks. He is available in nearly half of ESPN leagues and is a good playoff roster addition.