Eagles vs. Cowboys predictions: Our writers make their picks for Week 17

The Eagles will host the rival Cowboys on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field (1:00 p.m., FOX). Can the Birds complete their first sweep of Dallas since 2011? Here are our writers’ predictions for Week 17.

With Jalen Hurts officially ruled out due to a concussion, the Eagles will turn to backup Kenny Pickett at quarterback. The Eagles have been down this road before and the results have been mixed. They got the win with Gardner Minshew under center in 2021 against the New York Jets but got blown out by Dallas with Minshew as the starter in that season’s finale. The following season, the Eagles lost both of Minshew’s starts, at the Cowboys and home vs. the New Orleans Saints.

Pickett struggled when forced into the lineup vs. Washington, but he had 14 wins in 24 career starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He can get the job done as long as the Eagles can ride the run game and cater to his skill set as a passer.

» READ MORE: Kenny Pickett and the Eagles receivers are feeling ‘more comfortable’ after a week of reps together

The Cowboys are a different team than the one the Eagles butchered in Texas six weeks ago. They’ve won four of their last five, and while their opponents weren’t top-tier, coach Mike McCarthy has his team finally playing some respectable football. So what improved?

On offense, quarterback Cooper Rush has had more success throwing downfield. In the first meeting, the Eagles stifled Dallas’ passing game and Rush’s longest completion was for only 10 yards! The Cowboys tried to get top receiver CeeDee Lamb touches near the line of the scrimmage, but Vic Fangio’s unit did well to “tackle the catch.” Lamb had six catches for only 21 yards.

In the six games since, Lamb had 42 catches for 513 yards. Lamb would normally occupy most of the Eagles’ attention in the secondary, but he’s out with a shoulder injury and Dallas will be hard-pressed to move the ball.

The run game has improved. Running back Rico Dowdle has three 100-yard rushing games in the last four, and McCarthy is likely to lean into the ground game with Lamb sidelined. The Eagles’ run defense has been stout and hasn’t allowed anyone to eclipse the century mark all season.

The Eagles offense will obviously look different without Hurts. Washington often had an extra defender in the box when it became clear that Pickett was struggling in the passing game, especially after he injured his ribs. Hurts also has to be accounted for in the run game on zone read and run-pass option plays, but Pickett not so much. Dallas has one of the worst run defenses in the league, but so, too, does Washington.

Saquon Barkley is a stud, and the Eagles run block as well as any offensive line, but if the Cowboys have a numbers advantage, it could be tough sledding. Barkley has an opportunity to buttress his MVP case and the argument that running backs still have great value.

Either way, Pickett is likely going to need to be effective as a thrower at some level. He’s had a week of preparation, which should help. And he’s got receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to rely on, but he may have gone to that well one time too many vs. the Commanders. Pickett’s first 17 targets went to those two.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ running game will need to make adjustments with Jalen Hurts sidelined vs. Dallas

The Mike Zimmer-led Cowboys defense has been decimated by injuries but it still has a possible game-wrecker in Micah Parsons. He will mostly line up over right tackle Lane Johnson, but he’ll bump inside on occasion. It makes sense to give Pickett easy first reads to get the ball out quickly, but if he has to hold the ball, Johnson can block Parsons for only so long. Zimmer will dial up his share of pressures. He pretty much invented the double-A-gap blitz, but he’ll run twists and stunts to give O-linemen more to think about.

No Hurts may sound dire, but the Eagles have more than enough to win without him. The Cowboys, despite their recent improvement, are undermanned and the loss of Lamb should sting. I’ve seen this Nick Sirianni-led squad rebound from previous losses and controversies and I think the Eagles are resilient enough to clinch the NFC East title without their quarterback.

A loss wouldn’t come as a surprise, naturally. It would come with an asterisk, but it could force Sirianni to play his starters in the finale vs. the New York Giants assuming they’re out of the running for the No. 1 playoff seed.

Prediction: Eagles 23, Cowboys 17

Pickett vs. Rush with the NFC East title on the line for the Eagles. Just as everyone drew this one up when the schedule was released in May.

Instead, it’s a game that was flexed out of a national 4:25 p.m. slot into the mundane existence of the late-season 1 p.m. slate.

The show must go on, though, and it’s not like this is a game without implications. The Eagles need to wrap up the NFC East and get some rest before hosting a playoff game in a few weeks. The Cowboys want to continue to play spoiler, and nothing would make Jerry Jones and the gang happier than making the Eagles sweat a little more than they need to.

It’s hard to say what we can expect from Pickett in relief of Hurts. We know the Eagles will be a lot easier to defend, just like we saw on Sunday in Washington. But that was the Eagles making on-the-fly adjustments and not spending a week game planning for a Pickett-led offense.

Yes, Pickett is no longer a starter in this league for a reason. But he never had Brown, Smith, and Barkley by his side with the Steelers. Nor did he have an offensive line as good as the one the Eagles have. Will those factors be enough to mask Pickett’s obvious deficiencies? We’ll have an answer by halftime Sunday.

Pickett’s knock has been his inability to throw the ball deep, so expect the Eagles, when they ask him to throw, to utilize quick throws to Brown and Smith. Expect them to scheme up ways to make Barkley’s touches more positive than the carries he took in the second half Sunday in Washington.

» READ MORE: If the Eagles lose against the Cowboys, blame the kelly green jerseys

Dallas’ defense has been a lot better in recent weeks, especially against running backs. Barkley is better than the backs the Cowboys have held down, but rushing yards won’t come easy as Dallas is likely to dare the Eagles to beat them with Pickett’s arm.

It would be a bit crazy to expect the Eagles’ offense to run rampant and score a bunch of points Sunday. More likely, they will do their best to control the clock and field position and rely on their defense to keep Dallas at bay. The Eagles got a gift with Lamb off the board. The Cowboys don’t have enough firepower to beat this defense badly.

It won’t be pretty, but it’s hard to imagine the Eagles don’t find a way to win and clinch the NFC East.

Prediction: Eagles 18, Cowboys 10

Even without Hurts at the helm of the offense, this is a winnable game for the Eagles.

Pickett had an up-and-down day coming off the bench cold in relief of Hurts last week against the Commanders. He went 14-for-24 for 143 yards, one touchdown, and an interception (72.0 quarterback rating). Oftentimes his incomplete passes (and even some of his complete ones) were too late coming out or off target. With a full week of practice to get on the same page as his receivers, Pickett has a shot at an improved performance against the Cowboys.

Parsons ought to be one of the offense’s biggest concerns in the passing game. The Cowboys tend to move him around, so the offensive line must be aware of where he is on the field at any given time and respond accordingly, especially if he lines up inside.

The entire protection unit must also iron out its plan against the blitz in the aftermath of the Commanders game. According to Next Gen Stats, Pickett was blitzed on over half his drop backs for the first time in his career last week. He completed seven of those 13 passes for 94 yards, but he was pressured on 10 of his dropbacks and took three sacks.

The best way to keep the pressure off Pickett? Hand the ball off to Barkley. The Eagles must execute better in the run game than they did last week against the Commanders when the running back was held to 16 carries for 27 yards in the second half. There were too many self-inflicted wounds that led to their demise on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys offense is going to be severely limited without Lamb, who is out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. This could be a big break for the home team, seeing as Rush has performed better in the downfield passing game since he made his first start of the season in Week 10 against the Eagles. Per Next Gen Stats, Rush has completed 17 of 27 downfield passes for 328 yards and six touchdowns in his last three games. In the November loss to the Eagles, he did not complete a downfield pass.

Defensively, the Eagles must turn pressures into sacks on Rush and prevent explosive rushing plays from Dowdle. If the defense can rebound after an undisciplined performance against the Commanders, they can provide the offense with a greater margin for error. The fact that this Eagles team nearly beat the Commanders with Pickett in at quarterback for the majority of the game makes a win against the Cowboys realistic.

Prediction: Eagles 19, Cowboys 17

The Eagles weren’t able to wrap up the division in time for Christmas (pun intended), but have another opportunity to clinch the NFC East this Sunday against a beatable Dallas team.

The Cowboys have won four of their last five games, but the quality of opponents over that stretch still suggests the Eagles should be able to complete the season sweep over their division rival even without Hurts.

The biggest question is whether the Eagles run game can find its footing after a shaky second-half performance against the Commanders. Hurts’ absence led to Washington selling out to stop Barkley, something the offense is likely to see more of with Pickett expected to start this weekend. If the coaching staff can identify ways to counteract the loaded boxes Barkley is likely to face, the offense should be able to get back on track and limit Pickett’s responsibility to keep things afloat.

» READ MORE: Eric Dickerson on Saquon Barkley chasing his single-season rushing record: ‘I don’t think he’ll break it’

On the other side of the ball, this feels like a get-right game for the Eagles defense. The group is coming off its own uncharacteristically poor second half against Washington but should be in line for a rebound considering the matchup advantages on paper against a Cowboys offense now without Lamb.

I’d expect this game to take on the ugly, sometimes stodgy complexion division grudge matches often do, and the Eagles are better suited for a game like that than this Cowboys team.

If the run game and the defense rebound, it could be a comfortable afternoon for the Eagles en route to a division title. Even if things come down to the wire with Pickett at the controls, though, the Eagles should have enough to take care of business.

Prediction: Eagles 21, Cowboys 10

The Eagles play in Week 17 against the Dallas Cowboys. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from Lincoln Financial Field.