Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions: Our writers make their picks for Super Bowl LIX

The Eagles will be looking to avenge the heartbreak of two seasons ago when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in Super Bowl LIX. Here are our writers’ predictions for the big game:

A rematch of one of the better Super Bowls in recent memory offers maybe a more compelling matchup than two years ago. The Eagles are more talented, deeper, and have a better defensive coordinator and yet they are 1.5-point underdogs to a Chiefs team that isn’t as dynamic as the two previous versions that won titles. Kansas City has a better defense than it did in Super Bowl LVII when Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts accounted for almost 400 yards of offense. But Andy Reid’s offense isn’t that dynamic. Still, the veteran coach and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are the best reasons to think the Chiefs will pull off a first-ever three-peat.

» READ MORE: Catching up with Carson Wentz, who has a chance to be Nick Foles-ian in Super Bowl LIX

The Eagles stand in the way. They have a chance to do what no team has done since the 1998 Denver Broncos and that’s win a Super Bowl by riding the back of their running back all season long. Saquon Barkley has had a one-of-its-kind year and he’s one more impressive performance from maybe having the best season for a running back in NFL history. The Eagles’ formula for most of the season has been to lean on their run offense and play from ahead. But does the Super Bowl, and in particular, how Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo calls it, force Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to drop Hurts more often? Stacking the box to try and slow Barkley and make Hurts throw it seems like a no-brainer. But the Chiefs have a good run defense. They haven’t allowed a running back to rush for over 100 yards this season.

That said, they haven’t faced a run offense as effective since Week 1 vs. the Baltimore Ravens when quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 122 yards. Hurts’ legs can be the X factor – on zone reads and scrambles when the Chiefs get a blitzer freed up. And Spags is going to blitz. He’s going to send all kinds of exotic pressures, particularly the zone blitzes that have given Hurts the most trouble. How he and the Eagles blockers handle the blitz could decide the outcome. The Eagles have been excellent at protecting the ball. Now is not the time to turn it over.

The game could come down to a moment or two. Reid will dial up some play that wasn’t scouted. The Eagles will counter with some new looks themselves. But at this point in the season there can only be so many surprises. Game management will likely factor in the end result. Both Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and Reid have been aggressive on fourth downs. Aggressiveness typically pays off in the Super Bowl.

I picked the Chiefs two years ago. I’m not patting myself on the back, but mention it to show that my picking the Eagles this year isn’t homerism. I just think this team is built stronger and the Chiefs aren’t as strong as two years ago. It’s tough to bet against Reid and Mahomes. They could easily get it done again. But I don’t think Kansas City will have an answer for Barkley. If they do, then it’s on Hurts, and that may be how the Eagles lose. But I see another halftime lead, the Chiefs keeping it close, but Fangio being the defensive difference in the second half this time around.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Chiefs 23

In reality, the Eagles have the better football team. They have the better roster, in part, because their quarterback’s cap hit hasn’t yet reached the level of the other team’s. They have the better offensive line. They have the better running back. They have the better receivers. They have the better defense. And all of those truths come with matchup advantages all over the field.

The Chiefs, however, have the better coach and the better quarterback, and for basically the entirety of the 2020s that’s really all that has mattered. Sometimes that’s what it comes down to. Reid’s offensive mind and a quarterback, Mahomes, who refuses to lose, who makes all the throws, who only needs 13 seconds to change a sport.

Will that be the difference Sunday night? Will the Eagles come so close to another Super Bowl and again fall short of slaying the dragon because of those two people?

I don’t buy it.

Any game against this Chiefs dynasty is a dangerous one, and the Eagles will need to make sure they don’t give Mahomes a window to make his magic. They have been the kings of one-score games all season because of the Reid-Mahomes combination. The Eagles’ best course? Don’t let the game come down to one possession.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 23

Two years after frustration in Phoenix, is this the Eagles’ time to triumph in the Super Bowl?

Few Super Bowl-winning teams in recent history have had dominant individual rushers in the title game. The last player to eclipse 100 rushing yards in a Super Bowl was Chiefs running back Damien Williams in the team’s Super Bowl LIV victory over the San Francisco 49ers. In 2024, the Chiefs have been solid against the run, ranking eighth in rushing yards against (1,731) and fewest attempts against (418), 10th in touchdowns allowed (13), and tied for fifth in yards per attempt (4.1). Can Barkley buck the trend?

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defense will have its hands full with Mahomes. This season, Mahomes has leaned more into the quick passing game, with longer-developing dropbacks resulting in fewer explosive plays. He averaged the sixth-fewest yards per attempt (6.8) and finished with the fifth-lowest explosive rate (16.4%) on passes with a time to throw of over two and a half seconds in 2024, which are career lows.

The Eagles were the league’s best passing defense during the regular season (174.2 passing yards per game), so the group should feel confident going into the Super Bowl. Still, Mahomes is 3-0 in his playoff career against teams with the top-ranked pass defense in the regular season, according to Next Gen Stats.

But I think this group has the talent and the toughness to dethrone the Chiefs and block them from the three-peat. If the Eagles play up to their standard, clear your schedule for a parade down Broad Street.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Chiefs 27

This Eagles team might be the best in franchise history but will need some hardware to truly cement that status.

Vic Fangio will need a plan for Travis Kelce first and foremost. After the Eagles struggled against Commanders tight end Zach Ertz, especially when Reed Blankenship or Zack Baun matched up against the former Eagle, Andy Reid is likely to get creative featuring Kelce from multiple alignments across the formation. Rookie wideout Xavier Worthy presents a legitimate explosive threat as well, but the Eagles match up well enough outside of Kelce to feel confident about their defense even against a quarterback of Mahomes’ stature.

» READ MORE: ‘Built for this journey’: How Jalen Hurts’ path to the Eagles’ Super Bowl rematch was fueled by fire

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ quarterback-inclusive run game will be front of mind for Spagnuolo. If the defensive coordinator unearths an effective strategy for containing Barkley — and that’s a big if — this game could come down to Hurts’ ability to make them pay either as a runner on zone keepers or, more likely, through the air. Even then, the Eagles receiving trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert matches up well against the Chiefs secondary. The Eagles’ passing game has been inconsistent this season, but it’s typically been at its best when Brown or Smith can reliably get open the way they should be able to this Sunday.

Overall, the Eagles have mastered the art of avoiding mistakes themselves this season while forcing other teams into making some of their own. If they can maintain that formula against the Chiefs, they can bookend this three-year journey with some revenge. I see the Eagles getting ahead early, stemming the tide late, and finding a way to make sure Mahomes doesn’t get the ball one final time.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 31

The Eagles will be looking to avenge the heartbreak of two seasons ago when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in Super Bowl LIX. Here are our writers’ predictions for the big game:

A rematch of one of the better Super Bowls in recent memory offers maybe a more compelling matchup than two years ago. The Eagles are more talented, deeper, and have a better defensive coordinator and yet they are 1.5-point underdogs to a Chiefs team that isn’t as dynamic as the two previous versions that won titles. Kansas City has a better defense than it did in Super Bowl LVII when Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts accounted for almost 400 yards of offense. But Andy Reid’s offense isn’t that dynamic. Still, the veteran coach and quarterback Patrick Mahomes are the best reasons to think the Chiefs will pull off a first-ever three-peat.

The Eagles stand in the way. They have a chance to do what no team has done since the 1998 Denver Broncos and that’s win a Super Bowl by riding the back of their running back all season long. Saquon Barkley has had a one-of-its-kind year and he’s one more impressive performance from maybe having the best season for a running back in NFL history. The Eagles’ formula for most of the season has been to lean on their run offense and play from ahead. But does the Super Bowl, and in particular, how Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo calls it, force Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to drop Hurts more often? Stacking the box to try and slow Barkley and make Hurts throw it seems like a no-brainer. But the Chiefs have a good run defense. They haven’t allowed a running back to rush for over 100 yards this season.

That said, they haven’t faced a run offense as effective since Week 1 vs. the Baltimore Ravens when quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 122 yards. Hurts’ legs can be the X factor – on zone reads and scrambles when the Chiefs get a blitzer freed up. And Spags is going to blitz. He’s going to send all kinds of exotic pressures, particularly the zone blitzes that have given Hurts the most trouble. How he and Eagles blockers handle the blitz could decide the outcome. The Eagles have been excellent at protecting the ball. Now is not the time to turn it over.

The Eagles offensive line is likely to slide protections to defensive tackle Chris Jones’ side. He’s the one guy up front for the Chiefs who is most capable of wrecking the game. But defensive end George Karlaftis has come on strong over the last two months. Good news for the Eagles: He’ll line up mostly on All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson’s side. The Eagles have other matchup advantages, particularly with tight end Dallas Goedert. Receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will have the edge on the outside, too – even if Trent McDuffie is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL – but Goedert has a chance to go off in between the numbers. Moore is likely to draw up plays that get the ball in his hands early.

The Chiefs offense has gotten it done differently this season. Reid’s unit isn’t explosive. It’s workmanlike. No other NFL offense has had more average plays per drive (6.33) than the Chiefs. That methodology could work against an Eagles defense that is designed to bleed out offenses and could compel defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to go against his nature and be more aggressive. Fangio is a master of pre-snap disguise, so Mahomes will have his work cut out for him if he wants to throw beyond the first level.

He’s been content with getting the ball out of his hands on quick reads, which means the Eagles are going to have to do a lot of tackling the catch. They’ve been mostly sound in that regard, but there have been occasional breakdowns. Tight end Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite target, per usual, so it would make sense for Fangio to bracket him in coverage. Kelce is as slick as they come in finding the soft spots in zones and he and Mahomes have ridiculous chemistry. I don’t think the Eagles will want to play man defense vs. Kelce. Safeties Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson struggled to keep pace with another aging tight end – Zach Ertz – in the NFC championship. But the Eagles’ numbers vs. tight ends this season have otherwise been stellar, and Fangio should be able to double Kelce.

I still think that Reid will have something drawn up to exploit the Eagles’ safeties, or even slot cornerback Cooper DeJean. The rookie has had a good season, but his inexperience has shown at times. I’m not sure how much work outside cornerbacks Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell are going to get. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy is a downfield threat, but he’s been more dangerous underneath on quick hitters and the rest of the Chiefs’ group is on the older and slower side. It’s partly why Mahomes hasn’t been as effective when he’s been forced to hold the ball over three seconds. He’s taken a career-high 36 sacks this season.

» READ MORE: Catching up with Carson Wentz, who has a chance to be Nick Foles-ian in Super Bowl LIX

Reid’s offense utilizes a lot of pre-snap and at-the-snap motion – on 68% of plays. Eagles defenders will have to be disciplined and not get fooled by the eye candy. The Chiefs use heavy personnel a lot. How will Fangio counter? He’s fine with staying in base vs. the run. But the Chiefs just don’t run it often. If Fangio does stay in base more than usual that could lead to more snaps for nose tackle Jordan Davis on pass plays. He got a huge sack and batted a pass in the NFC championship. Still, I think that the Eagles will mostly stay in nickel. Kansas City’s run offense just isn’t that dynamic. Reid’s going to run it some, but he just wants to get into manageable third downs. The Chiefs have among the lowest average distance to go on third downs. Running back Isiah Pacheco may not be at 100%, but he gashed the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

The Eagles can pressure Mahomes against a Chiefs offensive line that is weak on the flanks. Joe Thuney’s move from guard to left tackle has settled the protection some, but he’s susceptible vs. strong edge rushers. Maybe Reid moves him back inside to help contain Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Center Creed Humphrey will likely slide to Carter’s side as often as he can, which means the Eagles’ other D-linemen need to win some one-on-ones. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been a penalty-making machine and is the weak link. Nolan Smith’s run of postseason sacks could continue. But the Eagles’ edges need to be cognizant of Mahomes’ ability to scramble. They must also play contain.

The game could come down to a moment or two. Reid will dial up some play that wasn’t scouted. The Eagles will counter with some new looks themselves. But at this point in the season there can only be so many surprises. Game management will likely factor in the end result. Both Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and Reid have been aggressive on fourth downs. Aggressiveness typically pays off in the Super Bowl.

I picked the Chiefs two years ago. I’m not patting myself on the back, but mention it to show that my picking the Eagles this year isn’t homerism. I just think this team is built stronger and the Chiefs aren’t as strong as two years ago. It’s tough to bet against Reid and Mahomes. They could easily get it done again. But I don’t think Kansas City will have an answer for Barkley. If they do, then it’s on Hurts, and that may be how the Eagles lose. But I see another halftime lead, the Chiefs keeping it close, but Fangio being the defensive difference in the second half this time around.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Chiefs 23

It feels like there’s a little unnecessary romanticizing going on here. That the Eagles are some plucky underdog going up against the Big Bad Kansas City Dynasty. Against Big Red and his virtuoso quarterback. Against Taylor and Travis. Against the Big Bad NFL and its biased officials. Against Donald Trump. Against the sportsbooks who dared to make the Chiefs a slight favorite.

In reality, the Eagles have the better football team. They have the better roster, in part, because their quarterback’s cap hit hasn’t yet reached the level of the other team’s. They have the better offensive line. They have the better running back. They have the better receivers. They have the better defense. And all of those truths come with matchup advantages all over the field.

The Chiefs, however, have the better coach and the better quarterback, and for basically the entirety of the 2020s that’s really all that has mattered. Sometimes that’s what it comes down to. Reid’s offensive mind and a quarterback, Mahomes, who refuses to lose, who makes all the throws, who only needs 13 seconds to change a sport.

Will that be the difference Sunday night? Will the Eagles come so close to another Super Bowl and again fall short of slaying the dragon because of those two people?

I don’t buy it.

Let’s start with the biggest reason I think the Eagles win: It feels like there’s a better chance the Eagles blow the Chiefs out than the opposite happening. This isn’t a Chiefs offense that blows anyone out. This isn’t an Eagles defense that gets blown out. That alone gives the Eagles an edge in a game that the experts and oddsmakers feel is a coin flip of sorts.

The other, perhaps the one that really matters and not my made-up analysis in the paragraph above? Barkley. The Eagles running game is the best overall facet in this game, and it will be the reason they win.

» READ MORE: Back home in Louisiana, DeVonta Smith will try to erase the pain of a championship loss while a proud community watches

Sure, Kansas City’s defense ranked eighth in rushing yards allowed during the regular season, but its run defense has been beatable in the playoffs. Joe Mixon and James Cook cooked the Chiefs on the ground in both of Kansas City’s playoff matchups, and it’s hard to imagine Barkley gets bottled up if Moore stays out of his own way on his way out the door.

Any game against this Chiefs dynasty is a dangerous one, and the Eagles will need to make sure they don’t give Mahomes a window to make his magic. They have been the kings of one-score games all season because of the Reid-Mahomes combination. The Eagles’ best course? Don’t let the game come down to one possession.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 23

Two years after frustration in Phoenix, is this the Eagles’ time to triumph in the Super Bowl?

It should be. This go around, the Eagles boast Barkley, who is coming off of one of the best single-season performances in NFL history. He has never played against the Chiefs in his seven-year career. Could he be the X factor for the Eagles offense, just as he has been all year long?

Few Super Bowl-winning teams in recent history have had dominant individual rushers in the title game. The last player to eclipse 100 rushing yards in a Super Bowl was Chiefs running back Damien Williams in the team’s Super Bowl LIV victory over the San Francisco 49ers. In 2024, the Chiefs have been solid against the run, ranking eighth in rushing yards against (1,731) and fewest attempts against (418), 10th in touchdowns allowed (13), and tied for fifth in yards per attempt (4.1). Can Barkley buck the trend?

But the last three weeks, aside from the regular-season finale, show that the Chiefs have been a bit more leaky on the ground compared to their standard throughout the season. Kansas City has allowed an average of 166 rushing yards in those contests. If they don’t tighten up, Barkley could make them pay.

» READ MORE: Eagles’ Zack Baun returns to his old home with the Saints, this time as an All-Pro

Handing the ball off to Barkley could help take some of the pressure off of Hurts, who is likely to be tested by Spagnuolo and his affinity for exotic blitz packages. Hurts is well-acquainted with those challenges presented by Spagnuolo. He was blitzed on 35.7% of his dropbacks in Super Bowl LVII, according to Next Gen Stats, facing pressure on 40% of those instances. The quarterback thrived against the blitz, avoiding a sack in those scenarios and completing 11 of 15 passes for 91 yards. This season, Hurts has fared decently against the blitz overall, completing 64.2% of his passing attempts while throwing just one interception, according to Pro Football Focus (compared to 63.1% completion and eight interceptions in 2023).

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defense will have their hands full with Mahomes. This season, Mahomes has leaned more into the quick passing game, with longer-developing dropbacks resulting in fewer explosive plays. He averaged the sixth-fewest yards per attempt (6.9) and finished with the fifth-lowest explosive rate (16.4%) on passes with a time to throw of over two and a half seconds in 2024, which are career lows.

The Eagles were the league’s best passing defense during the regular season (174.2 passing yards per game), so the group should feel confident going into the Super Bowl. Still, Mahomes is 3-0 in his playoff career against teams with the top-ranked pass defense in the regular season, according to Next Gen Stats.

But I think this group has the talent and the toughness to dethrone the Chiefs and block them from the three-peat. If the Eagles play up to their standard, clear your schedule for a parade down Broad Street.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Chiefs 27

This Eagles team might be the best in franchise history but will need some hardware to truly cement that status.

They’ve gotten back to these heights in a somewhat unconventional way, especially for them. An offense centered around an elite running back and a defense that is more cover-and-rush than the other way around. The Chiefs have evolved as well, but the main characters are largely the same as they were in Super Bowl LVII and the formula remains the same. The Eagles have more talent throughout their roster, but Mahomes stands in their way, especially if this game remains tight in the final moments.

There’s a chance it won’t, though. No lead is safe against this Chiefs offense, but an early advantage would play into the Eagles preferred game script. Barkley gives them a chance to control the game and grind out possessions, which could help stem the tide for Fangio’s group and allow the coach to be more aggressive.

» READ MORE: ‘Built for this journey’: How Jalen Hurts’ path to the Eagles’ Super Bowl rematch was fueled by fire

Fangio will need a plan for Kelce first and foremost. After the Eagles struggled against Ertz in the NFC title game, especially when Reed Blankenship or Zack Baun matched up against the former Eagle. Reid is likely to get creative featuring Kelce from multiple alignments across the formation. Worthy presents a legitimate explosive threat as well, but the Eagles match up well enough outside of Kelce to feel confident about their defense even against a quarterback of Mahomes’ stature.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles’ quarterback-inclusive run game will be front of mind for Spagnuolo. If the defensive coordinator unearths an effective strategy for containing Barkley — and that’s a big if — this game could come down to Hurts’ ability to make them pay either as a runner on zone keepers or, more likely, through the air. Even then, the Eagles receiving trio of Brown, Smith, and Goedert matches up well against the Chiefs secondary. The Eagles’ passing game has been inconsistent this season, but it’s typically been at its best when Brown or Smith can reliably get open the way they should be able to this Sunday.

Overall, the Eagles have mastered the art of avoiding mistakes themselves this season while forcing other teams into making some of their own. If they can maintain that formula against the Chiefs, they can bookend this three-year journey with some revenge. I see the Eagles getting ahead early, stemming the tide late, and finding a way to make sure Mahomes doesn’t get the ball one final time.

Prediction: Eagles 34, Chiefs 31

The Eagles will face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.