The Eagles aren’t losing to the Rams. But if they did, here’s how they would.

The last time a Ram stood this little chance, it was standing on a mountaintop in front of Abraham and an Angel of the Lord. One thing we learned from Monday night’s neutral-site wild-card finale: The Eagles would go Old Testament on both of these teams. Unfortunately, they ended up drawing the team that isn’t starting Sam Darnold at quarterback. Still, the Eagles are 5.5-point favorites over the Rams in Sunday’s NFC divisional round showdown for good reason.

The formula the Eagles used to beat the Packers on Sunday wasn’t as pretty or dynamic as the one they rode to the Super Bowl in 2022. But it is a lot more projectable this time of year. Really, the only trump card for a team that plays great defense and dominates on the offensive line is an elite opposing quarterback. More elite than Matthew Stafford.

The talent differential on defense is the big difference for the Eagles this season. Looking at the Rams depth chart, I see just one player who would definitely start for the Eagles (linebacker Jared Verse), and one player who might (defensive tackle Kobie Turner).

I have a hard time talking myself into a scenario in which the Rams end up winning, aside from the obvious random chance variables (fumbles, injuries, officiating). That being said, when a team has a head coach with the mind of Sean McVay and a quarterback with the arm of Stafford, the old truism reads more like Many Given Sundays. If last week was a 70/30 game in the per-100-game simulation, this one is more like 65/35 or 60/40. You can argue whether those odds qualify as Abrahamic, but there’s only one horned mammal who can say for sure, and he ain’t talking.

Rather than bore you with all the reasons the Eagles should beat the Rams, let’s try to envision the alternate reality. If they don’t, how does it happen?

1) The Rams finish what they start early on and jump out to an early lead.

There aren’t many game-scripters like McVay. He’ll figure out a way to beat you. The question is, how fast can you adjust?

Look at the Rams’ win over the Vikings on Monday night:

All of which adds up to a great stat: The Rams gained 183 of their 292 yards on those three drives. That’s 62.6%.

The formula should sound familiar to anybody who watched the Eagles’ 37-20 win over the Rams in Week 12. It’s easy to forget how that game started, given how it ended. After taking the opening kickoff, the Rams marched 53 yards in four plays. If Kyren Williams doesn’t fumble on first-and-10 from the Eagles’ 17-yard line to kill that first drive, McVay & Co. could easily have led 14-3 after their 70-yard touchdown drive on their second possession. The Rams’ first drive of the second half went for 70 yards and a touchdown, but it came after Saquon Barkley opened the half with a 70-yard touchdown run to give the Eagles a 20-7 lead.

If the Rams end up having a chance against the Eagles, it will be obvious early. Since Puka Nacua returned from injury in Week 8, Los Angeles has averaged 33.3 yards per drive on its first two drives of the game. That’s about middle-of-the-pack in the NFL, but 6 more yards than the Eagles have averaged. The Rams’ big problem has been converting drives into points: The Eagles have one more touchdown and one more field goal on those early drives.

» READ MORE: The 7 seconds that showed why the Eagles are a strong bet for the Super Bowl

Here’s where Stafford comes in. There was a time, pre-Rams, when I considered him the most overrated quarterback in the NFL. I don’t think that anymore, and not just because Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud are the clear answers. There are stretches of games, maybe even seasons, when Stafford is the Hall of Fame quarterback some people hold him to be. The thing that separates the Burrows and Mahomeses and Bradys and Mannings et al. is the consistency. We saw the lack of it from Stafford against the Vikings. But there are games when three or four brilliant drives are enough. That could be the case against the Eagles.

If ...

2) The Eagles either don’t win or, god forbid, lose the turnover battle.

There aren’t many NFL games, let alone playoff games, when a team is plus-4 in the takeaway department and still has a chance at losing midway through the fourth quarter. One wonders how things play out against the Packers if the refs initially rule that Green Bay recovered its opening-kickoff fumble. Hey, chances are Love throws an interception anyway. The guy’s nickname should be the Quantum Mechanic. His passes are like photons. One out of every five hits its target and looks great, but it is mostly a matter of chance.

An interesting thought experiment: Assuming all else remains unchanged, do the Packers win the game if they have Stafford at quarterback instead of Love? It’s a false choice, to be clear. The Packers played a heck of a defensive game, particularly against the run. The Rams don’t have the Packers defense.

But, if they do ...

3) Some combination of Jared Verse and the Rams’ blitz scheme leaves Jalen Hurts backpedaling early.

One of the more concerning aspects of Hurts’ performance against the Packers was his performance against the pass rush. According to Pro Football Reference, the Packers generated pressure on 10 of his 24 drop backs. On those plays, Hurts completed just 2 of 8 passes for 19 yards.

But, again, the Eagles only asked Hurts to drop back 24 times, despite having the best offensive line in the game and the best receiving corps in the game, and a running back who is among the better pass-catchers and blitz-picker-uppers in the game, and an opponent that was missing its All-Pro cornerback.

It goes without saying that Hurts is a much better quarterback than Darnold. He does not have the internal panic alarm in the face of pressure, which is half the battle of quarterbacking in the NFL. Pressure does not become sacks and interceptions. Increasingly, though, it does become throwaways and scrambles for minimal gain.

The Rams do not have an elite pass rush. But they do have a very good pass rusher in Verse. And they did utilize some creative blitzes to leave Darnold wishing that rare wish of still being a Panther or a Jet.

Hurts is a different player than he was a couple of years ago, when he spent the Super Bowl zigging and zagging his way through the Chiefs defense on both sides of the line of scrimmage. That’s not necessarily a knock on him, because it was not unforeseen. Quarterbacks don’t stay scramblers for long. At least, not the ones who aren’t Lamar Jackson. Hurts’ rushing ability is still a huge X factor. Of his 36 rushing yards against the Packers, 29 came on two field-goal drives, including a 15-yard designed run that gave the Eagles a first-and-10 at the Packers’ 38-yard line late in the first quarter.

If the Rams can pressure Hurts, if they can do so while still stopping Barkley, and if they can jump out to an early lead via the game-planning of McVay and the arm of Stafford, then the Eagles could find themselves in trouble.

Otherwise, the Rams will find themselves in familiar territory: a burnt offering en route to the Lions den.