Thumbs up or down: Eagles beat writers weigh in on the Rashaad Penny signing

The Eagles’ signing of free agent Rashaad Penny is an upside-with-little-downside swing of a gamble. The oft-injured running back signed a performance-laden one-year contract that could turn into a home run if he matches his previous standard and remains healthy.

When healthy, Penny has been as productive as any back in the NFL, averaging 5.7 yards a carry in his first five seasons. The problem was he struggled to stay on the field and played in only 38 of a possible 66 games.

But when the 27-year-old was on, he was on, especially during an 11-game stretch over the 2021-22 seasons. In that span, Penny rushed for 1,052 yards on 159 carries (6.6 average) and scored eight touchdowns.

His season, though, came to a crashing halt — again — when he fractured his fibula in Week 5.

Penny was thus forced to take a prove-it deal and the Eagles offered an opportunity with Miles Sanders departing in free agency. He not only will get a chance to win the No. 1 tailback spot, but also get to run behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and alongside dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts.

» READ MORE: Miles Sanders signs with the Carolina Panthers and departs the Eagles after a Pro Bowl season

The Eagles, in turn, get a proven running back with upside without having to break the bank. Salary cap constraints have restricted them in free agency, but also they don’t typically pay running backs. Penny’s contract is worth up to $2.1 million, but only $600,000 is guaranteed.

I don’t think that Howie Roseman is done addressing the position. The draft is said to be deep with running backs, and as well as Kenneth Gainwell played down the stretch last season, and despite Boston Scott being brought back on another one-year deal, the GM will likely look for cheaper, younger alternatives in later rounds.

Penny has had an assortment of injuries — from soft tissue strains to a torn ACL — but he also doesn’t have a lot of wear on his wheels. He’s played just 792 career snaps, which is only 119 more than Sanders played all of last season.

Film of the 5-foot-11, 220-pound running back shows explosiveness, good vision and strength after contact. Penny’s average of 3.34 yards after contact last season ranked sixth in the NFL among qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus.

He’ll be primarily a run-down option. Penny has only 27 career receptions. But if he can stay out of the training room — a big if — the Eagles may have found a cost-effective way to replace a 1,000-yard rusher.

While Penny’s health is a major question mark, the 27-year-old was a relatively low-risk, high-reward option for the Eagles in a loaded running back market.

He’s had brief stretches over the last few seasons when his production rivals the league’s best runners, but durability and consistency have kept him from truly being considered amongst them. A torn ACL in 2019 lingered longer than you’d like and a fractured fibula that required season-ending surgery last year looms large in any evaluation of what he’ll be able to do for the Eagles in 2023.

All this to say, Penny shouldn’t be viewed as a Sanders replacement. He’s certainly not getting paid like one; he can earn up to $2.1 million next year, but the guaranteed money is much lower. This year’s draft class is deep at running back and the Eagles could certainly stand to add a dependable rookie to split carries with Gainwell, Scott, and Penny. But if Penny goes into the regular season healthy, he will be a tantalizing option given his previous piques throughout the last few years.

Either looking at his tape or his advanced metrics, it doesn’t take long to realize why the Eagles valued Penny. He breaks off explosive runs at a rate significantly higher than similarly priced backs thanks to his combination of tackle-breaking ability and top speed. The 5-11, 220-pounder can churn through arm tackles for extra yards and has the burst to break through to the second and third level of the defense for big plays.

According to Next Gen Stats, Penny led the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per attempt in 2021, getting two yards per carry more than his blocking should have produced. He also led the league in average yards after contact in 2021 and led all running backs with at least 50 carries in the metric again last season, according to PFF. As much as Nick Sirianni values explosive plays, it also bears pointing out that more than half of Penny’s attempts the last two seasons have gone for 15 yards or more, a rate that leads the NFL as well.

The catch with his 2022 metrics is the small sample size, which is the ultimate downside with Penny. A torn ACL and a broken leg are the two major setbacks, but Penny has also dealt with smaller, nagging injuries between the two season-enders. The Eagles will need to find out if he’s still the same player and, if so, if he can stay on the field long enough to make a meaningful impact.

If the Eagles go into September without adding another running back, my thumbs up will flip on its axis. That said, adding a potential difference-maker is a good way to ensure the running back rotation doesn’t miss a step with Sanders headed to Carolina while also protecting against draft-night disappointment.

Penny’s injury history is a bit frightening, but his production when healthy is jaw-dropping. He’s an explosive option out of the backfield that consistently helps move the chains. It’ll be up to Penny and the team’s training staff to keep his body right over the course of a full NFL season.

The most attractive part of Penny’s signing is the low-risk factor. His guaranteed salary is less than $1 million, and while he can earn up to $2.1 million, the Eagles are saving a significant amount compared to what Sanders is set to earn in Carolina. The third-year running back Gainwell also seems poised for a larger role as evidenced by his increase in touches throughout the playoffs, and the team re-signed Scott. That trio, plus Trey Sermon, is expected to give the Eagles a formable rushing attack behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Penny’s 27 career catches could be an indicator that Gainwell still handles a majority of reps as the team’s featured two-minute package tailback. It’s possible the Eagles add another running back in the draft, but this is a fine group as currently constructed, heading into the 2023 season.

Besides addressing the absence left behind by right guard Isaac Seumalo, the Eagles don’t have any holes on offense. The running back position can be debated heavily across this town, but it’d be wise for the front office to allocate a majority of its remaining resources to the defense.