Eagles vs. Ravens predictions: Our writers make their picks for the Week 13 matchup

The Eagles (9-2) head to Baltimore to take on the 8-4 Ravens on Sunday (4:25 p.m./CBS). Here are our writers’ predictions for Week 13.

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The Eagles face arguably their toughest test yet of this season and it comes at the same time as the start of last year’s collapse. But unlike last season, they enter Sunday’s matchup with the 8-4 Ravens playing some of their most consistent football. This meeting between two Super Bowl-caliber squads offers intrigue in multiple ways. On both sides of the ball it’s strength vs. strength in the run game, although to categorize each offense or defense as just a one-trick pony would be erroneous. But the Eagles’ explosive run offense has yet to line up against a run defense as stout.

The Ravens have long emphasized stopping the run under John Harbaugh. In his 16 first seasons as Baltimore’s coach, he’s had 10 units ranked in the top five in yards allowed. This year’s group currently ranks second. First-year defensive coordinator Zachary Orr still employs Harbaugh’s preferred five-man front on run-obvious downs, but only to match heavy offensive personnel. He can get away with a four-man front in nickel partly because he has elite second level run defenders in middle linebacker Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton, etc. The Eagles use a lot of two- and three-tight end sets, and will probably lean that way again if receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring) is unable to go again. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore can’t get away from what has worked for the offense since the bye — rushing Saquon Barkley at will behind a dominant O-line. But the Ravens may test his patience.

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Baltimore’s not-as-strong pass defense may beg for more of Jalen Hurts airing the ball out. The Ravens have quality in the secondary. Hamilton is as rangy as safeties come and Marlon Humphrey (five interceptions, 12 pass breakups) is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. The overall numbers suggest weakness, but the Ravens have a solid 4-man rush led by Odafe Oweh, Nnamdi Madubuike, and Kyle Van Noy (doubtful) and Orr’s unit often bottles up offenses in the red zone. Hurts’ arm may have to shoulder more, especially if the Eagles are behind in the second half. He’s capable, obviously, but he may need to avoid the “buddy ball” he often plays with A.J. Brown. Tight end Dallas Goedert, receiver Jahan Dotson and others — Barkley should have advantages as a receiver — need to get more involved.

The Eagles’ offensive success during their seven-game win streak can partly be attributed to their defense. They’ve played complementary football and have done so against some solid teams. But they’ve yet to face a quarterback as dangerous as Lamar Jackson. He’s always a threat to run, but the addition of Derrick Henry in the backfield has taken Baltimore’s run game to another level. The Ravens like to run out of heavy sets which will likely mean a lot of the Eagles’ 5-man front with nose tackle Jordan Davis in the middle. This is where the former first rounder needs to earn his money against one of the better centers in the league, Tyler Linderbaum, and good interior blockers. Baltimore is also one of few teams to utilize a fullback. Vic Fangio’s run defense has been stout since the bye, but it’s yet to see the likes of Henry and Jackson.

The Ravens, like the Eagles, use the run to set up the pass, but that doesn’t mean Jackson can’t execute play-action and the drop back game. He’s got able targets in receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. And if his first reads aren’t there, he’s as good as any quarterback at extending a play. The Ravens lead the league in highest percentage of 20-plus-yard pass plays while the Eagles defense is first in preventing them. Fangio’s scheme is predicated on stopping explosive plays. He’d rather opposing offense’s check to the run vs. two-high safety shells. But the Ravens also rank first in 20-plus-yard run plays. The Eagles need to tackle better than they have the last few weeks, particularly when Henry has the ball.

The Eagles have yet to win in Baltimore. They’re 0-2-1 all-time at the Ravens. Most of the players on the current squad weren’t around when they last played at M&T Bank Stadium eight years ago, of course. But it’s tough to beat the Ravens at their house. A loss here wouldn’t be devastating. The Eagles would like to measure up against one of the AFC’s best, and I think they will. The outcome could flip on Harbaugh’s aggressiveness if the Eagles can make him pay for his gambles. Nick Sirianni can’t be meek in his decision-making either. I’ll go with the chalk here.

Prediction: Ravens 29, Eagles 27

This one was easy to circle when the schedule was revealed in May. It pitted two of the top teams in their respective conferences closing out a holiday weekend in the primetime CBS slot. One of the few regular season matchups with more than a puncher’s chance to be a Super Bowl preview.

But who could have predicted the way the Eagles and Ravens are winning, with Barkley and Henry in a different stratosphere at the top of the NFL’s list of rushing leaders?

Both running backs have made their respective front offices look like the class of the NFL and Sunday’s matchup brings us the top rushing offense (Eagles) vs. the second-best rushing offense, and the top overall offense (Ravens) by yards per game vs. the third-ranked offense.

Both teams have the ability to rack up yards and score points, and a shootout isn’t out of the question. It’s the closest thing to a coin flip the Eagles have played since they went to Cincinnati five weeks ago as a slight underdog and won by 20.

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No team allows fewer yards per game than the Eagles. Only eight teams allow more yards than the Ravens. Advantage Eagles? It seems that way, but context is needed.

Baltimore has a stout run defense that ranks second in the NFL. The Ravens are most beatable through the air, but the Eagles, even with Smith at his healthiest, have not yet found a consistent rhythm when they’re throwing the ball more often than running it. Could a pass game against a team that is unlikely to be able to handle covering Brown, Smith and the rest of the Eagles’ weapons help set up the run game?

Maybe, but not all numbers are created equally. The Ravens do have the No. 2 run defense, but they’ve also played five of their 12 games against the six worst rushing offenses in the league, and six total against the bottom 10 run units.

Meanwhile, teams that run the ball well have found some success vs. Baltimore. Eighth-ranked Pittsburgh rushed 34 times for 122 yards (3.6 yards per carry) and controlled the clock in an 18-16 win over Baltimore two weeks ago. Tenth-ranked Tampa ran 30 times for 125 yards. The Chargers tallied up 4.2 yards per attempt Monday night in Los Angeles.

It’s not impossible to beat Baltimore on the ground, and the Eagles, with their offensive line and Barkley running behind it, aren’t like any other team Baltimore has faced.

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The same can be said about Jackson, Henry, and the Baltimore offense, which is far and away the best and most dynamic unit the Eagles have faced all season. The Eagles have passed recent tests against good offenses (Washington, Cincinnati, Los Angeles), but none of those teams present the problems that Jackson and Henry will present the Eagles.

How will the Eagles replace Brandon Graham at a position, edge rusher, where they suddenly have a huge depth — and possibly talent — problem? Will Isaiah Rodgers hold up well enough with Slay out? Can Baltimore find ways to exploit the few weak links on the Eagles defense?

It’s easy to talk yourself into either result here. For now, I’ll take the team on the winning streak that has the better defense until proven otherwise.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Ravens 23

In households across the Philadelphia area on Thursday night, families probably sat down at the Thanksgiving table and listed Barkley among the things they’re thankful for this year. In Baltimore, they’ve got a run game to be grateful for, too.

Henry has been a boon to an already talented Ravens offense this season. The 6-foot-2, 247-pound running back ranks second in the league behind Barkley with 1,325 rushing yards. The Eagles have fared much better defensively against the run since the bye week, cleaning up their missed tackles and allowing just 3.8 rushing yards per attempt (3.8), but they haven’t faced a back quite as bruising as Henry yet this season.

How will the Eagles attempt to slow down the 30-year-old back? According to Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have utilized a loaded box at the seventh-lowest rate in the league this year (41.2%), which would be an uncommon occurrence for the Ravens, who have faced a loaded box at the fourth-highest rate (49.9%). Still, that hasn’t stopped Henry. He has posted a league-high 486 yards on 84 carries against loaded boxes.

On the flip side, the Ravens boast one of the stingiest run defenses in the league, conceding just 77.9 rushing yards per game (No. 2 in the NFL) and giving up just 16 runs of 10+ yards (the league low). Another potential benefit to the Ravens’ run defense could be the returns of nose tackle Michael Pierce (injured reserve, calf injury; missed last four games) and inside linebacker Roquan Smith (hamstring; missed last game).

Could this matchup come down to the passing game? Slay will miss Sunday’s game with a concussion, meaning Rodgers will likely start in his place. The Ravens’ passing attack with Jackson at the helm leads the league in expected points added per play (+.18) and passing yards per play (8.2). There’s a strong likelihood that Jackson opts to pick on Rodgers, so he’ll need to bring his best in Baltimore.

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The Ravens secondary has had their struggles, giving up a league-high 156 yards per game on downfield passing attempts this season, according to Next Gen Stats. That could be a matchup for Hurts to exploit, considering he’s averaged the third-most yards per attempt (12.9) on downfield passes this year. Still, I’m giving the Ravens and their well-rounded offense the slight edge at home.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Eagles 23

The Ravens are one of the few teams in the NFL that have about as much on-paper talent as the Eagles, which makes for an instructive measuring stick for both teams as the playoff race tightens and the list of true Super Bowl contenders comes more clearly into picture.

Baltimore’s defense will pose an intriguing challenge for the run-first Eagles. The Ravens’ dedication to stop the run has led to them boasting the league’s best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry, but has come somewhat at the expense of their ability to cover things up on the back end. Baltimore ranks 24th in passing yards per attempt allowed and 31st in total yards allowed.

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That formula might dare the Eagles to shed their run-first identity just for a week in pursuit of explosive plays on the perimeter, especially if the Ravens get out to an early lead that forces the Eagles to play from behind. Those explosive plays should be there; the Ravens rank 31st in explosive plays allowed this season behind only the 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles reworked edge-rusher rotation will have the daunting task of contending with Jackson. Pressuring him is hard enough, but containing him might suffice against a Ravens offense that ranks first in total yardage and is in the top-5 of nearly every offensive metric that matters. As well as the Eagles defense has fared since the early-season bye week, the combination of Jackson and Henry in the backfield is enough to believe this will be a high-scoring affair.

Sitting in second place in the tightly contested AFC North, the Ravens need this game more than the Eagles do. That makes this Sunday feel like even more of a toss-up, but last week taught me not to pick against this Eagles winning streak until they give me a legitimate reason to do so.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Ravens 28

The Eagles play Sunday afternoon in Week 13 against the Ravens in Baltimore. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from M&T Bank Stadium.