Eagles-Saints predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for Week 17

Whether Jalen Hurts plays or not, the Eagles should win against a subpar, depleted New Orleans Saints team. The expectation here is that Gardner Minshew starts at quarterback for a second straight week. He showed in Dallas that he can effectively execute an offense that has yet to be contained for virtually the entire season. The Eagles should have matchup advantages at receiver with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and New Orleans unlikely to have its best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, back in the lineup. Expect to see more than three targets for Dallas Goedert, as well.

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The Saints have an edge with defensive end Cameron Jordan expected to line up over right tackle Jack Driscoll, the probable replacement for the injured Lane Johnson. But in Jeff Stoutland the Eagles trust and he should be able to scheme up some protections to help Driscoll. With Hurts under center in the previous two meetings, Saints coach Dennis Allen’s defense was torched on the ground. No Hurts, however, means no plus-one factor at quarterback. But Miles Sanders, even with the knee strain, has an opportunity to bounce back from fumbles in back-to-back games against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. I like his chances.

Andy Dalton has been an efficient quarterback for the Saints. He isn’t flashy, but he’s managed to avoid catastrophe, for the most part, in his 11 starts. His problem has been that he hasn’t had the weapons New Orleans has long had at the skill positions. Running back Alvin Kamara has lost a step and he’s questionable for Sunday. Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out, and even when they were in, they were shades of their former selves. The Saints’ best option, rookie receiver Chris Olave, was sidelined with a hamstring strain last week and is also a question mark. New Orleans’ most dangerous weapon has been jack-of-all-chores Taysom Hill. But he’s limited in terms of the number of snaps he can play. And even if he produces an explosive play or two, the Eagles’ pass rush, which is on course to break a franchise record for sacks, has a decided advantage over the Saints’ patchwork offensive line. Jonathan Gannon has to go with Josiah Scott in the slot for another week, but the cornerback showed earlier in the season that he’s much better with a week of preparation than when he’s forced to jump in midstream.

If the Saints get their on-the-fence injured guys back, they have a greater chance to pull off the upset. But I think the Eagles take care of business and clinch the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, and as an added bonus improve the first-round draft pick they acquired from New Orleans.

Prediction: Eagles 29, Saints 17

The Eagles, this Sunday, have a chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference, the first-round playoff bye that comes with it, and some much-needed rest for their starters.

Even if Hurts is sidelined, hampered, or otherwise with his sprained right shoulder, the Eagles’ offense has a decided talent advantage over the New Orleans Saints defense. Allen, the longtime Saints defensive coordinator turned head coach, is well respected in the Eagles building and has a reputation for leading a sound group, but the Eagles have been successful against the Saints in the teams’ recent meetings.

Part of the last two Eagles wins against New Orleans in 2021 and ‘20 were thanks to Hurts’ ability to change the numbers in the run game, but this year’s version of the Saints defense is also not what those previous units have been. The group ranks 13th in defensive efficiency by Football Outsiders and 21st against the run specifically.

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The absence of Lane Johnson on the offensive line will be important to monitor, especially if Minshew is at the controls, but the Eagles should be able to run the ball and take advantage of favorable passing matchups on the outside. New Orleans has found success this season mucking up games and limiting possessions, but the Eagles have shown an ability to win that way against teams like the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts.

The matchups on the other side are even better for the Eagles. Even though last weekend’s loss to the Cowboys created some valid concerns about the Eagles’ defense going into the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine them having much trouble containing this Saints offense.

Hill requires some extra homework from a coaching staff, but the Saints don’t have much offensive firepower outside of him. Olave, the rookie receiver, has been impressive this season, but he’s been sidelined with a hamstring injury. Kamara’s status is also in doubt because of a quad injury, but even when healthy he hasn’t been the dynamic player he once was.

QB Dalton has played reasonably well since taking over for Jameis Winston mid-season, but he’s not the elite caliber of quarterback that the Eagles’ defense has struggled against under defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. The Eagles’ pass rush could be in for a big day thanks to the combination of the Saints’ shoddy offensive line and Dalton’s lack of mobility.

The Eagles didn’t leave Dallas with the shirts and hats they were hoping for on Christmas Eve. There’s good reason to believe they’ll ring in the new year on the right foot.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Saints 13

The Eagles are down four starters — Hurts, Johnson, nickel cornerback Avonte Maddox, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson — and they’re still widely considered as heavy (seven-plus points) favorites. Despite the key absences, the Eagles still possess ample firepower to turn this Week 17 contest into a layup.

The Saints have been playing better football over the past few games, with an emphasis on limiting their opponents’ time of possession, but their run defense is still suspect. Sanders, Pro Bowl running back, also feels like he has something to prove after fumbling in consecutive games. Last year against the Saints, Sanders finished with a team-high 94 rushing yards across 16 carries. There’s a chance he tops that mark on Sunday.

The coaching staff wisely isn’t rushing Hurts back, and there isn’t much reason to besides his outside chances of being named the league’s most valuable player. In Minshew, the Eagles have a capable signal caller who showed last week in Dallas that he isn’t afraid to air it out to top receivers Brown and Smith, who represent the franchise’s first WR duo to each record 1,000-plus receiving yards in the same season. If Goedert is able to get rolling more consistently, it will turn into a pick-your-poison-type scenario for opposing defenses in the looming playoff rounds.

With an opportunity to clinch the conference’s top seed and guarantee themselves a bye week along with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, it’s difficult to imagine the Eagles folding at home, especially on the heels of a crushing loss to a division rival. Regardless of the quarterback, the Eagles are well-positioned to seal their postseason fate against an inferior opponent.

Prediction: Eagles 30, Saints 17