Eagles stats: Analytics reveal Dallas Goedert’s dominance, Eagles’ overreliance on screens
Why so many screens vs. Arizona? The Eagles had numbers on the outside and wanted to make the Cardinals pay for loading the box.
It wasn’t necessarily pretty, but the Eagles escaped the desert with their undefeated record still intact.
The team’s 20-17 win over the Arizona Cardinals featured two offenses that resembled the Oklahoma systems both Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray orchestrated under Lincoln Riley and two very different defensive approaches to stopping the screen- and RPO-heavy attacks.
Here’s what the advanced numbers tell us about the Eagles fifth win in as many weeks:
3.8
Minus the scoring and porous defense, Sunday’s game looked a little bit like a Big 12 contest when it came to play-calling.
The Eagles’ offense has featured remnants of the Alabama and Oklahoma concepts Hurts is so good at running all season to great success, but Sunday’s game seemed particularly dictated by the defensive alignments that often inform option-heavy schemes.
According to Next Gen Stats, Hurts threw 13 passes to receivers on screen plays against Arizona.
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The heavy screen usage and lack of downfield shots saddled Hurts’ aggressiveness metrics in a staggering fashion. Hurts’ air yards per attempt was just 3.8, which was the lowest of any quarterback going into Monday night. For reference, Hurts’ average air yards per attempt this season is 7.2 and Jameis Winston leads the league with 11.2 intended air yards per throw.
33%
So why so many screens?
The Eagles likely favored their matchups on the outside with their receivers capitalizing on space along the perimeter.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, 33% of Miles Sanders’ rushing attempts came against loaded boxes with eight or more defenders. For reference, Sanders has run against a loaded box just 19.54% of the time this season and very few featured backs have faced more than 30% this year.
The box count numbers reveal the rationale for the screen passes; the Eagles had numbers on the outside and wanted to make Arizona pay for loading the box. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni also noted that the Cardinals’ blitz-heavy scheme sometimes led to Hurts using screens as hot routes.
72
A handful of those screen passes were to Dallas Goedert, and for good reason.
Screens to the Eagles tight end have been one of the most consistently productive plays on the call sheet for Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen so far this season. On Sunday, even as the Cardinals started snuffing out the team’s penchant for getting Goedert the ball in space, the 27-year-old had his best game of the year.
According to Pro Football Focus, Goedert compiled 72 of his 95 receiving yards after the catch. Goedert’s total led all tight ends and ranked fourth in the NFL going into Monday night behind only Cooper Kupp, Leonard Fournette, and Alvin Kamara.
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7.1
While the Cardinals countered the Eagles’ horizontally focused offensive game plan with a heavy dose of blitzes and aggressive coverage, Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon employed a different approach on the other side.
The Eagles gave Cardinals wide receiver Rondale Moore an average of 7.1 yards of cushion Sunday, even though the receiver’s average depth when targeted was a league-low 2.2 yards from the line of scrimmage. In plainer terms, Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury happily took the space the Eagles gave Moore, who had seven catches for 68 yards and averaged eight yards after each catch.
The Cardinals did take their share of deep shots, more than the Eagles. Arizona wideout Marquise Brown averaged nine air yards per target and got an average of 9.2 yards of cushion from Eagles corners.
74%
A.J. Brown’s usage is a lingering question mark following Sunday’s win.
The star wide receiver was only on the field for 74% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps, behind DeVonta Smith. The Eagles used heavy personnel packages more often than usual, particularly a three-tight-end set with Goedert, Jack Stoll, and Grant Calcaterra on the field with Smith as the lone receiver.
The Eagles ran nearly a dozen plays out of 13-personnel. Stoll played 41% of the team’s snaps and Calcaterra logged 10 plays. In the 12-personnel looks, Brown rotated in at times and was sparsely targeted after getting three catches on the opening series.
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49%
Bonus stat!
The Eagles climbed one spot in the fivethirtyeight Super Bowl probabilities after Sunday’s win, slightly edging the Kansas City Chiefs and trailing only the Buffalo Bills. They have a 49% chance securing a first-round bye and a 97% chance to make the playoffs at this point.
One caveat: The Cowboys and Giants’ 4-1 starts are lowering the Eagles’ chances of winning the division some. Fivethirtyeight gives the Eagles a 63% chance of claiming the NFC East, which is lower than the Bills by 19%.