What’s behind the Eagles’ uptick in turnovers so far this season?
The Eagles like to emphasize ball security, but Jalen Hurts is on his way to a career-worst number of interceptions. Let's look at some numbers that can help explain the increase in turnovers.
After being one of the league’s best teams in turnover differential a year ago, the Eagles are headed in a different direction in 2023.
Jalen Hurts, with eight, is one interception away from tying his career-high for a season and has already tossed two more picks than he did all of last year. The team as a whole is minus-2 through seven games — tied for 18th in the NFL — after finishing last season plus-8, which ranked third.
The sudden shift in ball security, something Eagles coach Nick Sirianni has a history of emphasizing, was the primary culprit in their lone loss of the season against the New York Jets and will become even more of a focal point as the schedule toughens next month with games against the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and San Francisco 49ers.
What’s behind the uptick in turnovers? It is natural for teams to fluctuate year-over-year; there have been only three teams to finish top-five in turnover differential in consecutive seasons since 2019.
Hurts alluded to the ill-fated nature of some of his interceptions, most notably a Dallas Goedert drop against the Jets that went straight to defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and the deflection against the Dolphins that landed in linebacker Jerome Baker’s hands.
“There have been some miscommunications and some crazy turnovers that have kind of happened,” Hurts said. “But those are all things that I control. Some things, it seems like you can’t — a tipped ball or a ball goes to a [defensive tackle] off a drop or something like that, but you try to really control the things that you can control. That’s just how I’m navigating through it.
“Obviously you look at the level of production and correlation,” Hurts said. “Everyone wants to look at it and compare it to last year. We’re statistically better besides turning the ball over. We just have to play clean in that area and I have to do a better job with that and continue to trend forward with that. The reality is we haven’t played our best ball.”
Luck aside, there are some underlying numbers that help explain the Eagles’ increase in turnovers, particularly regarding Hurts.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hurts ranks fourth this season among quarterbacks in turnover-worthy plays — when a quarterback puts the ball in harm’s way either with a risky throw or an untimely fumble. His 11 plays this season trails only Gardner Minshew, Mac Jones, and Desmond Ridder.
By comparison, Hurts had just 12 turnover-worthy plays all of last season, the lowest total of any quarterback with at least 500 dropbacks.
Hurts’ time to throw may be a contributing factor as well. He has averaged 3.01 seconds to get the ball out this year, which is the fifth-slowest time in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats.
Time to throw can sometimes look unfavorable for quarterbacks like Hurts who tend to improvise and evade pressure with their athleticism, but he averaged 2.76 seconds last season, which was middle of the pack.
Hurts’ fumble against the Dolphins came when he held onto the ball for an extended period on a third-and-8 play in the first quarter. He went to cover the ball just as Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb swatted at it, something Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson noted earlier this week.
“If you look at fumbles throughout the National Football League, the majority of them are sack fumbles in the pocket and the quarterback fumbling the ball in the pocket,” Johnson said.
“So, the one thing that we always try to emphasize is two hands on the ball in the pocket,” Johnson said. “In that particular clip, Jalen did have two hands on the ball, but we just have to continue to be firm and detail it and really minimize those type of game-changing plays.”
Injury report
James Bradberry (ankle), Jordan Davis (hamstring), and Zach Cunningham (ankle) were all limited participants in practice, joining defensive tackle Milton Williams (heel).
Slot cornerback Bradley Roby missed practice for the second day in a row, although the team held a walk-through on Wednesday and released an estimation of participation as a result.
Reed Blankenship was a full participant Thursday after missing the Eagles’ win against the Dolphins with a ribs injury suffered the weekend before against the Jets.
The Eagles visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from FedEx Field.