5 darn good reasons not to freak about the Eagles after Week 1 of the NFL season

Some of the Eagles' struggles were worth at least a half-raised eyebrow. But there's no reason to doubt that they are who we thought they'd be.

Eagles linebacker Zach Cunningham celebrates after recovering a fumble in what amounted to a close game in Week 1 against the New England Patriots.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by David Murphy | Columnist

Published Sept. 13, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

Forget about the wins and the losses.

Let’s talk about the shoulda wons and the shoulda losts.

The balance between the two is a big thing in the NFL. It’s the difference between greatness and goodness, goodness and mediocrity, mediocrity and badness, badness and awfulness.

One week into the 2023 season, the Eagles are comfortably in the black.

They shoulda lost this one. Maybe by a lot.

That’s a good thing. When the schedule came out, I had Week 1 in New England as one of those 50/50 games where the likelihood of a loss was much higher than it appeared on paper. It was a swing game between 13-4 and 12-5 or 12-5 and 11-6.

» READ MORE: Eagles game-by-game predictions for 2023

This means they likely are now to end up somewhere on the higher end of the range of likely outcomes.

Sidenote: I break down schedules into six categories: definite wins, definite losses, probable wins, probable losses, potential wins, and potential losses. I had them pegged with four probable losses. It’s not an exact science, as is usually the case with things that originate in my brain. Regardless, I had them with four probable losses: 1. One in the Week 5-7 stretch at the Rams, at the Jets, and vs. the Dolphins equals one probable loss. 2. Week 11 in Kansas City with Andy Reid coming off a bye. 3. One of Weeks 12 and 13 at home against the Bills and 49ers. 4. One of Weeks 14 and 15 on the road in Dallas and Seattle.

Fact is, most teams lose this game. Even good teams. We saw the Bengals do it Sunday in Cleveland. We saw the Chiefs do it against the Lions. The biggest reason not to freak out about the Eagles’ uneven performance: They walked away with some house money.

Four other reasons:

The Patriots defense might be the toughest the Eagles face all season.

Bill Belichick is the best coach in the history of football and one of its best defensive minds. He had a full postseason at home to watch the Eagles and a full offseason to prepare for them. Combine that with the weather and the setting and this was a situation ripe for a letdown.

The Eagles aren’t the first team to struggle in New England in Week 1. In the Patriots’ last five season openers, they’d allowed three passing touchdowns. They had 10 sacks and six interceptions. They held opponents to an average of 293 yards and 19.2 points.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith’s presence will limit Jalen Hurts’ regression.

Don’t get me wrong. Hurts is going to be tested this season. Part of that is because of the schedule. Part of it is because the NFL adapts with ruthless efficiency. All things considered, this was a tougher opponent than any he faced last regular season. But the Jets, 49ers, Bills, and Cowboys could prove equally as tough.

So yeah, Hurts’ performance was worth at least half a raised eyebrow. He didn’t throw for a single third-down conversion. He rushed for a couple, but he was 3-for-6 with a sack for 12 yards. He didn’t appear to see the field particularly well from inside the pocket, and the Patriots did a good job of keeping him there.

But again: This was a tough opponent and tough conditions. And Hurts still made a ton of plays that counted. Besides his ability to scramble on third down, the biggest thing he has going for him are the guys he has split out wide. It’s hard enough to defend one elite receiver. The Eagles have two. Smith may not have the physical stature of Brown, but he is definitely in that category. He showed it on the out pattern he ran from the right slot on his 5-yard touchdown catch. It was defended as well as it could have been, but Smith is a guy who is always going to win at least a step out of his break.

Combine that with the best-in-class body control and focus he used to smother Hurts’ low-and-away fastball by the sideline and the Eagles have one heck of an incredible security blanket.

Jalen Carter looks like he might soon become the most dominant Eagles defensive tackle since Jerome Brown.

That’s a remarkable thing to say given that he is currently playing alongside a guy who already is the Eagles’ most dominant defensive tackle since Brown. As good as Fletcher Cox was at his peak, he never had Carter’s size or raw physical strength. You saw it all during training camp, and you saw it against the Patriots. In addition to his first career sack, Carter, according to PFF.com, was credited with seven of the Eagles’ 15 quarterback hurries. Granted, the Patriots were missing two-thirds of their interior offensive line. But Carter left little doubt that he will be an impact player as a rookie. I don’t know what sound a baby rhino makes, but the Patriots heard it all day.

Nick Sirianni has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Week 1 is not a good time to question pedigrees. Last year, Week 1 saw Carson Wentz and the Commanders beat Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. It saw Joe Burrow and the Bengals throw four interceptions in a loss to Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers. It saw the Bears earn one of their three wins by handing the 49ers one of their four losses.

Week 1 isn’t meaningless. There are harbingers. Nine of the 16 teams who won in Week 1 last year went on to make the playoffs. Eleven of the 16 teams who lost in Week 1 went on to miss the playoffs. The Broncos ended up being as bad as they looked in Week 1. The Seahawks, Giants, and Dolphins remained competitive all season.

The trouble with Week 1 is that you don’t have enough context to make any real judgments. Turns out, the Eagles were playing a darn good offense last year when they allowed the Lions to score 35 points and rack up 386 yards of total offense in a 38-35 win in their season opener. Over the next nine games, they held opponents to an average of 290 yards and 16.4 points per game. The Eagles defense wasn’t perfect. But it was a lot better than it looked in Week 1.

The hallmark of good coaches is that their teams get better as the season progresses. It’s been the Eagles’ trajectory in each of their first two years under Sirianni. There’s no reason to think that won’t be the case in Year 3.

And, again, let’s not forget the most important takeaway from the Eagles’ performance against the Patriots in Week 1.

They won.