Eagles are still figuring out Jalen Hurts. But in fantasy football, he’s a star quarterback | KC Joyner

Many fantasy managers came into this season expecting starting-caliber production out of Eagles players, but those hopes have not come to pass. This has been a very tough year to put Eagles players into fantasy starting lineups.

Miles Sanders was a low-end RB2 in 2020 despite playing in only 12 games, so fantasy managers drafted him with the idea that he would develop into a bona fide RB1 with a full schedule under his belt in 2021. But after six weeks Sanders has been an afterthought in the Eagles offense and thus ranks 30th in RB fantasy points (per ESPN full PPR scoring).

DeVonta Smith has elite talent, as he obliterated the SEC career receiving record for touchdowns by 15 scores and was the only SEC receiver to ever post multiple games with 4+ touchdowns. Put that type of player in a pass-centric offense like the Eagles operate, and fantasy managers might expect strong WR3-caliber production. But Smith has been very inconsistent, with three games of 14+ points to go along with three games of fewer than six points and a No. 39 ranking in WR scoring.

Pro-rate Dallas Goedert’s 2020 production over a full season and he would easily rate as a TE1. But the Eagles’ desire to add trade value to Zach Ertz capped Goedert’s target volume, so he instead ranks as a mid-tier TE2 who has posted fewer than nine points on three occasions (not including the zero point showing he tallied by missing the Tampa Bay contest).

The one Eagles player who has successfully bucked this trend is Jalen Hurts. He has posted 147.2 fantasy points and a 24.5-point per game average that ranks fifth among fantasy quarterbacks, but what makes him even more valuable is that Hurts has tallied 20.5 or more points in every contest. He gives fantasy managers a chance to keep up or win the quarterback competition every week, which is the type of consistency that can help teams stay in playoff contention.

So, how has Hurts been able to do this? A huge factor is his rushing production. He ranks second only to Lamar Jackson in rush attempts (53) and rushing yards (300) by a quarterback, and his five rushing touchdowns place tied for first with Sam Darnold (per Pro Football Reference).

Hurts is on pace to rush for 850 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Only four quarterbacks in NFL history have rushed for more than 850 yards (Jackson, Michael Vick, Bobby Douglass, and Randall Cunningham) and Cam Newton is the only quarterback to ever rush for 14 touchdowns.

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Fantasy managers should keep in mind that Hurts won’t have to continue at this all-time elite rushing pace to maintain QB1 status. For proof, consider that it normally takes 300 fantasy points over the course of a full season for a quarterback to rate as a QB1.

If a quarterback’s rushing ability brings a solid but unspectacular total of 300 rushing yards and four touchdowns over that season, it generates 30 points for the yards and 24 points for the touchdowns. That quarterback will now only have to score 246 points in 17 games to reach QB1 status, or a mere 14.5 points per game. A fantasy quarterback in most leagues will score 14 points if he passes for 250 yards and a touchdown, which is a mediocre production pace that most NFL quarterbacks can post on a subpar day.

Hurts has tallied 250+ passing yards and at least one passing touchdown on three occasions this year and even generated enough aerial production in Week 3 (326 yards) to mostly offset the minus four-point impact of two interceptions in that contest.

What all of this indicates is even if the Eagles coaching staff decides that having Hurts rush the ball this often is not a good idea for keeping the starting quarterback healthy for the next 11 games, he should still be able to post enough points in the rushing attack to keep the bar very low in passing production and thus maintain QB1 status for the rest of the 2021 campaign.

Here is this week’s gambling 10-pack, a section that reviews some of the top gambling, fantasy, and DFS plays for NFL games in Week 7.

1. Case Keenum taking over for Baker Mayfield is just the latest in a slew of injuries for the Browns, as Cleveland is the most banged up team in the league. So a short-week contest against a desperate Denver club could not have come at a worse time. Take the Broncos +2.5 in an upset pick.

2. Fantasy managers should take care in navigating the Browns running back situation, especially regarding Kareem Hunt. His calf injury is apt to keep him out for at least 4-6 weeks per most reports, so don’t accept any trade offers for Hunt without taking that into account. Since Nick Chubb is also going to miss this week’s contest, D’Ernest Johnson will likely take over as the lead rusher and Demetric Felton will be the lead pass catcher out of the backfield. Both may be available via free agency in season long fantasy leagues and could make for quality upside plays in DFS as well.

3. If there was ever a time that Sanders could turn his season around, this would be it. The Week 7 matchup against the Raiders starts a three-game stretch for the Eagles where they face weak rushing defenses. Add that factor to six teams being on a bye this week, and it might be time to put Sanders into lineups as a flex candidate with the hope that the Eagles coaching staff will target this personnel weakness.

4. Fantasy managers with Ertz on their rosters may want to consider putting him into a starting lineup this week, as my matchup rankings system has the Cardinals with the third most favorable tight end coverage schedule in Week 7.

5. Another potential long shot for upside play is Jameis Winston. The Saints’ run-first offense usually keeps Winston’s fantasy scoring in check, but he has posted two games with 4+ passing touchdowns and scored 25+ fantasy points in those contests. The Seahawks may have the worst pass defense in the league so this could be one of those matchups where Winston racks up enough scoring plays to post 20+ points.

6. There are three games this week with a point spread of 12+ points. The best play among this group is the Rams -15.5 versus Detroit. Jared Goff is showing the Lions coaching staff why Sean McVay wanted to make a quarterback change in the first place, and it has led to Detroit scoring 17 or fewer points in five straight games. This contest will make it six straight and the Rams should rack up 31+ points against an atrocious Lions defense, so go with the Rams minus the points.

7. Fantasy managers with Rams players on their rosters should also take full advantage of the Detroit matchup. Robert Woods followed up his dominant Week 5 showing against Seattle with a meager two catches for 31 yards and a touchdown against the Giants in Week 6, but the man also known as Bobby Trees should be in every lineup this week. In addition, Tyler Higbee is a quality bye-week start candidate and Van Jefferson is a good long-shot upside option.

8. Najee Harris is trending as a really good value pick at +800 for Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Steelers first-round pick is currently on track to post 1,791 yards and 11 touchdowns and already set an NFL single-game record for receptions by a running back (14, versus Cincinnati in Week 3). His toughest competition right now is Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, but Chase looks to be more likely to hit the rookie wall than Harris.

9. Another potential quality futures play is Ezekiel Elliott +1,000 to lead the league in rushing yards. The Cowboys star is currently 262 yards behind Derrick Henry in this category with 11 games to play. That’s a notable mountain to climb, but keep in mind that right now Henry is on pace to post 504 scrimmage plays this season for the Titans. No player in NFL history has ever had 500 touches in a single campaign, as James Wilder had 492 in 1984. It would not be a shock if Henry broke new ground here, but if historical trends hold up and he doesn’t make it, Elliott could close the gap. It’s worth a risk given the 10-to-1 payout.

10. Looking for a good long-shot bye week start for D/ST? Atlanta could fit that bill. Per CBS Sports, D/STs facing the Dolphins have scored 10+ points in four out of six games this year. The Falcons D/ST just had its highest fantasy point total of the season in Week 5 and is coming off of a bye week, so they could reach another season high given the matchup favorability.