Is Eagles’ J.J. Arcega-Whiteside the next Demaryius Thomas or the next Cody Latimer? | David Murphy

There’s a play I keep coming back to whenever I think about J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s future. It was Week 15, early in the second quarter of the Eagles’ 37-27 win over the Redskins. Arcega-Whiteside had entered the day with a chance to build some late-season momentum in a rookie campaign that at one point looked to be completely bust.

The previous week, he’d played 90% of the offensive snaps against the Giants, his tough 22-yard catch on third-and-4 late in the fourth quarter helping put the Eagles in position for a game-tying touchdown. His last seven games had seen him catch six balls for 116 yards and a touchdown, hardly the sort of production his bosses envisioned when they selected him at No. 57 overall in the draft the previous spring, but a significant improvement after a six-game stretch in which he’d played just 43 snaps total and been held without a catch.

Now, with 11 quarters remaining in his rookie season and his coaches having decided to give him a steady dose of reps, Arcega-Whiteside finally had an opportunity to show why the Eagles opted to pick him over emerging rookie stars like Terry McLaurin and D.K. Metcalf.

The Eagles were trailing the Redskins 7-3 when they lined up for a first-and-10 on the Washington 24-yard line. Arcega-Whiteside, who’d played virtually every snap of the first quarter, trotted out to the left side of the formation and set up outside the numbers, where rookie cornerback Jimmy Moreland was giving him 10 yards of cushion. He would be running some sort of deep post: sprint 15 yards down the field, plant the left foot, then break into a slant toward the middle of the end zone.

Shortly after the snap, it was clear that Arcega-Whiteside was going to have a chance to make a play. Not only was Moreland playing him over his outside shoulder, leaving the inside of the field exposed, but both Redskins safeties were preoccupied with the underneath routes unfolding in front of them. As Arcega-Whiteside planted his foot to cut, his advantage grew even further, the sudden change in direction momentarily knocking Moreland’s weight back on his heels. It amounted to a split-second head start in a 2-second foot race. The play was won.

Except that it wasn’t. By the time Arcega-Whiteside completed his cut and regained top speed, Moreland had recovered. By the time Carson Wentz’s pass arrived in the end zone, Arcega-Whiteside’s advantage was gone. Having regained position on his inside hip, Moreland dived in front of Arcega-Whiteside and deflected the pass, the altered trajectory rattling the ball into and out of the receiver’s midsection and then harmlessly to the ground.

While it is generally an error to use a single play as the basis of judgments, there are some plays that leave room for little reconciliation between who a player is and who a player needs to be. Think about the first time you watched an opposing receiver run a go route against Rasul Douglas. Think about all of the subsequent times you’ve watched it happen. What we saw out of Arcega-Whiteside as a rookie is essentially the inverse. There is a basic level of quickness and acceleration that a wide receiver needs in order to make a living against NFL cornerbacks. And it is not clear that Arcega-Whiteside has it.

Statistically speaking, there’s nothing we saw from J-JAW that eliminates the possibility that he will eventually become an above-average NFL wide receiver. Last season alone, we saw the Jaguars’ DJ Chark emerge as a potential star after a rookie season in which he caught just 14 passes for 174 yards. The Steelers’ James Washington caught 44 balls for 735 yards after catching just 16 for 217 as a rookie. Mike Williams caught 49 passes for 1,001 yards with the Chargers. Two years ago, he caught 11 for 95 as a rookie.

From 2008 to 2017, 30 receivers finished their rookie seasons with fewer than 400 yards after having been drafted in the first two rounds. Included in that group are Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Golden Tate, Randall Cobb, and Alshon Jeffery. More recently: Williams, the Panthers’ Curtis Samuel, and the Titans’ Corey Davis.

Of course, those are the exceptions. For every Thomas and Nelson in that Group of 30, there are two Josh Doctsons, Limas Sweeds, and Cody Latimers. When you rewatch the tape of Arcega-Whiteside’s rookie season -- it can be done in an afternoon -- the lack of explosion is jarring. In hindsight, perhaps he was fortunate not to have run any of the speed or agility drills at the combine. The 4.49 he posted in the 40-yard dash at Stanford’s pro day looks respectable on paper, but The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane reported earlier this offseason that Eagles talent evaluators were split on his upside, with some voices expressing concerns about his quickness and stiff hips.

Arcega-Whiteside is an interesting case study in former personnel head Joe Douglas’s belief in the value of college production. A prolific pass catcher at Stanford, he was overshadowed by several rookie wide receivers whose physical measurables eclipsed their statistics.

“Is that a factor for us when we look at college production and we kind of see how important that is to us, do we have to go back and look at that?" GM Howie Roseman said in January at his end-of-season media availability. "And I think we do.”

That might not bode well for Arcega-Whiteside. He is an easy guy to root for. Perhaps he will make up for what he lacks in foot speed with his strength and his size and his ability to make catches in traffic. A little more precision in his routes and better technique into and out of his breaks might be enough.

Still, the Eagles know they need to add more speed and explosion on offense, and this year’s draft class is loaded with such qualities. If Jeffery, Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Dallas Goedert enter the season on the roster, there would not appear to be enough reps to accommodate another two receivers. Granted, Jeffery is recovering from injury and is a potential trade candidate, and Jackson has battled injuries in recent seasons.

But if the Eagles draft a receiver in the first couple of rounds, he will almost certainly enter training camp with more political capital than Arcega-Whiteside. That would leave him with a lot of ground to make up. Perhaps more than he is capable of covering.