NFL draft 2023: How many picks did Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Daniel Jeremiah actually get right?

Every year leading up to the NFL draft, national experts like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay offer mock draft after mock draft, flooding the internet with so many predictions it’s hard to keep track.

The first round of the 2023 NFL draft was particularly chaotic, featuring a whirlwind of trades, including the Eagles moving up to the No. 9 pick to take Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Everyone seemed to have predicted the Carolina Panthers taking Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick. After that, it was mayhem.

» READ MORE: 2023 NFL Draft: Live coverage of rounds two and three

McShay, the NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, and NBC Sports’ Peter King all correctly predicted the Eagles would select Georgia defensive end Nolan Smith, but they all thought the Birds would grab him at No. 10. No one — including Eagles beat writers Josh Tolentino and EJ Smith — predicted Smith would fall to No. 30, and that the Eagles would end the night with both him and Carter.

“I’m dumbfounded at the fact that the Eagles are leaving this first round with both Jalen Carter & Nolan Smith,” Jeremiah wrote on Twitter late Thursday night.

All four experts thought Kentucky quarterback Will Levis was a near-certain lock to go to the Indianapolis Colts at the No. 4 pick. Instead, the Colts took Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson, and Levis was forced to wait in the green room on national television as team after team passed him over. By the end of the night, Levis wasn’t selected by anyone, and remains on the draft board heading into the second round.

“Man if I’m Will Levis I’m pissed at all the people who told me I’d be a Top 5 pick,” college football analyst and SiriusXM host Danny Kanell wrote on Twitter following the first round.

Here’s how four of the most well-known NFL draft analysts did in predicting the outcome of the first round of the 2023 NFL draft:

Jeremiah, a former Eagles scout turned NFL Network draft analyst, fared the best Thursday, nailing six of the evening’s 31 picks.

After the Houston Texans drafted Texas quarterback C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 pick, they traded up with the Tennessee Titans to also grab the No. 3 pick, a move that surprised nearly everyone — except Jeremiah.

Not only was he alone among the top TV analysts in predicting the Texans would take Stroud (most thought he would end up with the Titans), Jeremiah also somehow predicted the Texans-Titans trade and that the Texans would take Alabama LB Will Anderson, Jr. at No. 3.

» READ MORE: Howie Roseman defends the Eagles’ Jalen Carter draft pick, and the only fair response is to wait and see

McShay, who has been a draft analyst for ESPN since 2006, ended the evening correctly predicting four picks.

Beyond Young going to the Panthers with the No. 1 overall pick, McShay nailed the Atlanta Falcons taking Texas running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick, a move that disappointed many Philly sports talk radio hosts.

McShay also correctly predicted Mississippi State corner back Emmanuel Forbes going to the Washington Commanders at No. 16 and the Minnesota Vikings taking USC wide receiver Jordan Addison with the No. 23 pick.

Preceding his final mock draft earlier this week, King owned up to the fact it’s a largely meaningless enterprise he referred to as an “annual exercise in futility.”

“I don’t think I know. Actually, I know I don’t know,” King wrote.

King ended the first round only successfully predicting two picks — Young to the Panthers at No. 1 and Robinson to the Falcons at No. 8.

In his 40th year covering the NFL draft, Kiper put together arguably his least-accurate mock draft.

Like just about every other expert, Kiper successfully predicted the Panthers would take Young at No. 1. And that’s it.

Not only that, Kiper was among the most outspoken advocates for Levis, touting him as the second-best quarterback in the draft and a “top five pick” ahead of Stroud and Richardson. Kiper tried to make sense of Levis falling into the second round late Thursday night, suggesting NFL executives were too focused on a left toe injury that caused Levis to miss time last year.

“He’s playing because he’s a gutsy, tough kid. And he played through pain,” Kiper said. “I don’t know how you hold turnovers — Kentucky, with the offensive line as bad as it was — against Will Levis. We’re not in the seventh round here.”

We’ll have to wait and see who ends up being correct — Kiper or the 27 NFL executives who passed him over (five teams didn’t have first-round picks).

Kiper was also the only one of the four major TV draft analysts to predict the Eagles taking Robinson, which would have caused longtime 94.1 WIP host Howard Eskin to retire from radio. Instead, the Falcons took Robinson with the No. 8 pick, leaving Kiper and all of Philadelphia to wonder what might have been.