NFL playoff picture: Eagles can clinch NFC East and No. 2 seed, Cowboys can finally be eliminated

The Eagles’ playoff math is pretty straightforward heading into Sunday’s game against the Washington Commanders (9-5) — a win and the Birds clinch both the NFC East and the NFC’s No. 2 playoff seed.

It’s the No. 1 playoff seed where things remain tricky.

The Eagles (12-2) enter Week 16 in a three-way tie with the Detroit Lions (12-2) and Minnesota Vikings (12-2), but both would likely win tiebreakers against the Birds if they end the season with the same record — the Lions would have a better conference record, while the Vikings would likely edge out Philly with a better strength of victory.

So for the Eagles to have a realistic shot at landing the top playoff spot and a first-round bye, they would need to end the season with one more win than either the Lions or the Vikings.

Fortunately, Detroit and Minnesota play one another in Week 18, so that guarantees at least one loss (we’ll skip the possibility of a tie for the time being). The Lions face the Chicago Bears (4-10) Sunday and travel to play the San Francisco 49ers (6-8) in Week 17, while the Vikings face the Seattle Seahawks (8-6) and Green Bay Packers (10-4).

The Commanders have a narrow path to top the Eagles in the NFC East, but it would require Washington defeating the Birds on Sunday and winning their final two games against the Atlanta Falcons (7-7) and the Dallas Cowboys (6-8). The Commanders would also need the Eagles to end the season with losses against the Cowboys and New York Giants (2-12).

The Commanders could clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Eagles and losses by the Falcons and either the Los Angeles Rams (8-6) or the Seahawks.

While the Giants have been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks, the Cowboys still have an unlikely but mathematically possible chance to land the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Dallas would need to win their final three games — which would include defeating the Eagles next week at the Linc — and have the Commanders lose out to even have a remote chance of sneaking into the playoffs, currently pegged at less than 1% by the New York Times’ playoff simulator.

So a Cowboys or Eagles loss officially eliminates Dallas from the playoffs. Birds fans are obviously rooting for the first option, which would also likely mean the NFL would move Eagles-Cowboys out of Fox’s national 4:25 p.m. window in Week 17.

The Lions currently hold the NFC’s top playoff seed, but could drop all the way down to the No. 7 seed if they lose their final three games. The good news for Detroit is they currently have the tiebreaker over the Vikings, but that could change when the two teams face off in Week 18.

The Packers would clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Saints on Monday Night Football, but they might not have to wait that long. Green Bay would also enter the playoffs with losses by the Falcons and either the Rams or Seahawks.

Like the Cowboys, the 49ers also enter Week 16 with an extremely narrow chance to make the playoffs. It would likely require San Francisco to overtake the Rams, Seahawks, and Cardinals in the NFC West. It’s more likely the 49ers will become the 11th team since 2000 to miss the playoffs after losing in the Super Bowl.

Following their win against the Houston Texans (9-6) Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) would clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a first-round bye if the Buffalo Bills (11-3) lose Sunday against the New England Patriots (3-11).

The Baltimore Ravens (10-5) clinched a playoff spot and moved into first place in the AFC North by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) Saturday night.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) would clinch a playoff birth with losses Sunday by both the Indianapolis Colts (6-8) and Miami Dolphins (6-8). Both the Colts and Dolphins would be officially eliminated from the playoffs if they lose.

There is a possibility all seven playoff teams in the AFC could be determined by Sunday afternoon with two weeks remaining in the season, which would be a first since the NFL and AFL merged in 1970. In that scenario, the Colts, Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) would all be eliminated from the playoffs.

For that to happen, the following results would need to occur Sunday, according to NFL playoffs analyst Joe Ferreira:

The NFL playoffs begin with the wild-card round on Saturday, Jan. 11, which will feature six games airing on Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC.

For the second straight season, one wild-card game will stream exclusively on Peacock, NBC’s subscription service.