The real NFL power rankings, using analytics that matter most

Now that we’ve reached the three-quarters mark of the 2021 NFL season and thus have a lot of information on teams, it seems like a perfect time to put together a set of NFL power rankings.

I’ve taken part in several power rankings over the years and many of them are nothing more than popularity contests where the teams with the best records always take the top spots, but this analysis will use a more structured approach. It will take a series of five key team performance metrics and measure them both for full season value and for value over the past four weeks. The idea here is to take the advice of many NFL general managers and place a lot of additional emphasis on the latest four-week stretch of the season when gauging a club’s performance, but without forgetting how the teams have played over the course of 13 weeks. Those scores are then compiled and converted into a 1-100 Power Score, with 100 being the best.

Now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, let’s look at the Week 13 power rankings.

1 – New England Patriots (9-4), Power Score: 100

The Patriots have now won seven straight games since their Week 6 loss to Dallas, but the main element to note in their No. 1 ranking is that they are 22 points ahead of the second-place team. New England also placed first in six of the 10 total categories measured, as they have dominated on both sides of the ball over the past month. They should be considered the favorite to win the AFC and have far more paths to victories than any team on this list.

2 – Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), Power Score: 78

It may seem like the Chiefs’ emphasis on winning games with a strong rushing attack and powerhouse defense is new, but keep in mind that in their Super Bowl LIV season Kansas City threw for 300+ net passing yards only three times in their last 16 games. Andy Reid is simply going back to an approach that worked then and could work again given how well defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s platoon is playing.

» READ MORE: Joe Banner: Eagles should start Jalen Hurts, though he’s unlikely to be their long-term QB answer

T3 – Indianapolis Colts (7-6), Power Score: 74

Jonathan Taylor (South Jersey’s Salem High School) has turned into an MVP candidate over the past month, but he’s not the only reason the Colts have scored 31+ points in seven of the last eight games, as Carson Wentz has learned to protect the ball in a way he rarely did in his Eagles tenure. Indianapolis also has a playmaking defense, as the Colts have registered 2+ takeaways in all but three games this year and have posted at least one takeaway in every game.

T3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3), Power Score: 74

Tampa Bay may have the best chance of moving up this list over the rest of the season, as they recently returned two of their starting cornerbacks (Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting) to the lineup after missing them for most of this season.

5 – San Francisco 49ers (6-6), Power Score: 70

Were it not for the surprising loss at Seattle in Week 13, the 49ers might have contended for a higher spot on this chart. This team has three tough road games remaining (Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the Rams), but the Niners have a 4-2 record away from Levi’s Stadium and have two favorable home games (Atlanta and Houston), so a playoff berth seems likely.

T6 – Buffalo Bills (7-5), Power Score: 68

The Monday night loss to the Patriots has caused a ton of frustration for the Bills, but they do get a chance to make things right with a Week 16 matchup at New England. The problem for Buffalo is they also have a Week 14 matchup at Tampa Bay and are already two games behind the Patriots and on the wrong side of the tiebreaker, so winning back-to-back AFC East titles looks unlikely for the Bills.

» READ MORE: What we learned from Eagles-Jets: Give Howie Roseman credit where it’s due

T6 – Green Bay Packers (9-3), Power Score: 68

Most of the attention to this team is paid to Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the studs on the Packers offense, but Green Bay hasn’t allowed 100 rushing yards to an opponent since Week 7 and could get elite cornerback Jaire Alexander back soon. Combine that with the Packers having a four-game lead in the NFC North and this is arguably the most complete team in the NFC.

T8 – Miami Dolphins (6-7), Power Score: 67

Miami has won five straight after a 1-7 start due in large part to a powerhouse defense, as the Dolphins have allowed 17 or fewer points in five straight games and 10 or fewer points in four of those matchups. Despite this run, the New York Times Playoff Predictor gives the Dolphins only a 6% chance of earning a playoff berth this year, as they have a very difficult rest of season schedule that includes road games against the Saints and Titans and a home matchup against New England.

T8 – Arizona Cardinals (10-2), Power Score: 67

It may not be fair to rate the Cardinals this low, as they have been without Kyler Murray for three of the past four games, but this club will have a chance to skyrocket up this chart will quality performances against tough foes, including the Rams in Week 14, the Colts in Week 16, and Dallas in Week 17.

10 – Cincinnati Bengals (7-5), Power Score: 66

It’s tough to get a good read on the Bengals, as they crushed the Raiders and Steelers by a combined 73-23 score in Weeks 11-12 and yet lost to the Chargers by a 41-22 margin in Week 13 and got blown out by Cleveland by a 41-16 score in Week 9. The schedule may not make it easier to accurately gauge Cincinnati, as they face San Francisco in Week 14, travel to Denver in Week 15, have back-to-back home matchups against Baltimore and Kansas City in Weeks 16-17, and then close the year out with a rematch with the Browns.

» READ MORE: ‘Top Gun’ Gardner Minshew reignites Minshew Mania and a QB controversy, this time for the Eagles | Marcus Hayes

11 – Eagles (6-7), PS: 62

12 – Dallas Cowboys (8-4), PS: 61

13 – Washington Football Team (6-6), PS: 57

14 – Los Angeles Rams (8-4), PS: 55

15 – Los Angeles Chargers (7-5), PS: 52

16 – Baltimore Ravens (8-4), PS: 46

17 – Minnesota Vikings (5-7), PS: 42

18 – Denver Broncos (6-6), PS: 41

19 – Carolina Panthers (5-7), PS: 39

20 – Tennessee Titans (8-4), PS: 31

T21 – Chicago Bears (4-8), PS: 28

T21 – Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1), PS: 28

23 – New Orleans Saints (5-7), PS: 27

24 – Detroit Lions (1-10-1), PS: 26

T25 – Cleveland Browns (6-6), PS: 25

T25 – New York Giants (4-8), PS: 25

27 – Las Vegas Raiders (6-6), PS: 23

28 – Seattle Seahawks (4-8), PS: 22

29 – New York Jets (3-9), PS: 11

30 – Houston Texans (2-10), PS: 10

31 – Atlanta Falcons (5-7), PS: 6

32 – Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10), PS: 1

Here is this week’s gambling 10-pack, a section that reviews some of the top gambling, fantasy, and DFS plays for NFL games in Week 14 (gambling odds per BetMGM).