NFL playoff picture: Eagles can move closer to No. 1 seed, Giants near elimination

It’s a little early to be looking at the NFC playoff race, but the Eagles (8-2) need a win against the Los Angeles Rams (5-5) Sunday to keep pace in the race for the No. 1 seed.

The Birds enter Week 12 as the No. 2 team in the NFC behind the Detroit Lions (9-1), who have won eight straight games and are favored on the road against the Indianapolis Colts (5-6) Sunday afternoon.

If the Lions’ win, they’ll improve to 10-1 and remain atop the NFC. However, the Colts are in the hunt for the AFC’s final wild card spot, and an upset win in Indianapolis this afternoon would drop the lions to 9-2.

That’s when things get interesting.

The Eagles and Lions don’t play one another this season, so the next tiebreaker would be their record against NFC teams. Entering Week 12, the Lions are 6-1 against NFC teams, while the Eagles would be 6-2 if they defeat the Rams tonight. So there’s no way the Eagles can overtake the Lions this week, and Detroit would end up with the top seed if both teams won all their remaining games.

However, it’s possible the NFC could be decided by the NFL’s third tiebreaker — record against common opponents. Entering Week 12, the Lions are 3-1 against common opponents, while the Eagles are 2-1. The Lions defeated the Rams back in Week 1, so the Eagles need a win tonight on Sunday Night Football to keep pace.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Rams predictions: Rounding up the experts’ picks for Week 12

Regardless, the odds are stacked against the Eagles. Entering Sunday, the Birds have a 99% chance of making the playoffs but just a 12% chance of overtaking the Lions for the NFC’s top seed, according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator. But the Eagles were in a similar spot as the Lions last year, and we all know how that ended.

If the Eagles manage to to overcome the odds and end the season as the No. 1 seed, it would mean home-field advantage through the NFL playoffs and the only bye during the wild-card round.

We’re still a bit early for actual playoff scenarios, but the New York Giants (2-8) could be mathematically eliminated from everything but the final wild-card spot with a loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) Sunday paired with wins by the Washington Commanders (7-4) and either the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) or Green Bay Packers (7-3).

Speaking of the Commanders, Washington’s loss to the Eagles last week forced them all the way down to the No. 7 spot in the NFC. Fortunately for them, their next three opponents have a combined record of 9-22, making their Week 16 rematch against the Eagles all the more important for their playoff chances.

The surprising Arizona Cardinals (6-4) have quietly won four straight games and currently sit in the NFC’s No. 3 spot. The last time the Cardinals made the playoffs was 2021, and a win against the Seattle Seahawks (5-5) Sunday increases their chances of a postseason berth to 80%, according to the New York Times.

As far as the NFC East is concerned, an Eagles’ win over the Rams paired with a Commanders loss against the Dallas Cowboys (3-7) today would increase the Birds’ odds of winning the division to 70% and put them up 2.5 games with just six to play.

» READ MORE: Eagles-Rams: Start time, channel, how to watch and stream ‘Sunday Night Football’

Despite their loss to the Buffalo Bills (9-2) last week, the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) remain in control of their own fate in the race for the AFC’s top playoff spot. Patrick Mahomes and company were helped by the Cleveland Browns (3-8), who upset the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) in the snow on Thursday Night Football.

It’s still possible the AFC’s No. 1 seed could be decided on Christmas Day, when the Chiefs face the Steelers in Pittsburgh in what is shaping up to be a monster game on Netflix. But in order to get within striking distance of Kansas City, the Steelers would need to gain at least a game on the Chiefs over the next four weeks against a tough schedule that includes the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) and the Eagles at the Linc on Dec. 15.

Meanwhile, the Bills are on their bye week and could lock up the AFC East by winning two of their remaining six games, according to NFL playoffs analyst Joe Ferreira.

Sunday

Monday

The NFL playoffs begin with the wild-card round on Jan. 11, which will feature six games airing on Fox, CBS, NBC, and ESPN/ABC.

For the second straight season, one wild-card game will stream exclusively on Peacock, NBC’s subscription service.

The Eagles play in Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from SoFi Stadium.