Eagles no longer favorites for Week 2 matchup with Los Angeles Rams
Sports betting notes also include Week 2 lines, and a happy birthday to Patrick Mahomes, who has been a friend to us all these last few years.
The Eagles opened around 3.5-point favorites against the Rams. It was 2.5 points in some places, 4.5 in at least one other, according to the line tracker at VegasInsider.com.
The amateurs among us, who watched Washington turn the Eagles offensive line into a Septa turnstile, just before the Rams defense — led by behemoth Aaron Donald — handled the Cowboys on Sunday, may have been surprised the Eagles were favored. The sharps, however, see it another way.
“This is the old small sample size fallacy,” a sharp bettor told The Inquirer. “Birds looked bad. Rams looked good.”
Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill sportsbooks, concurred: “Not surprising. The Rams looked good , Eagles imploded.”
The line has continued to drop. As of Thursday afternoon, many houses had it as a pick 'em (i.e. point spread is 0) with a few places making the Eagles the underdog at +1.
"The move from “pick 'em to +1 will be easy [for the sportsbooks],” said an experienced bettor. “But once they move it to +1.5, they invite teaser money. So that half-point will be more of a hump. I think it closes as Eagles +2.”
A teaser is a sports betting term in which bettors buy points in their favor, but must combine the bet with at least one other parlay. For the sake of simplicity, if the Eagles are +1.5, a six-point parlay would move the Eagles to +7.5. A bettor would then have to find another bet to parlay this with.
Pat Eichner of PointsBet said his house had 85% of the tickets on this game on the Rams, and 67% of the money on L.A. He also said 80% of the money was on under, which opened at 48 and was 45.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
The cat-and-mouse game between bettors and bookies will continue over the next few days — as it always does. The six-figure plays are still to come.
“We’re not buried [with excessive liability] or anything,” Bogdanovich said. “Most money comes this weekend. We will see then.”
Linc Lounge
The Eagles this week announced a partnership with Fox Bet which will include a lounge inside Lincoln Financial Field. This will not be the Eagles' only gambling partner as the NFL begins season No. 3 since the prohibition on sports betting outside of Nevada was overturned in the spring of 2018.
“The NFL is taking a cautious approach, but I understand that,” said Catherine Carlson, the Birds' VP of revenue and strategy. “The important thing when you delve into this space [sports betting] is that the integrity of the game is the utmost importance.”
Carlson said the actual exposure to lines will not be within the main part of the lounge, but rather a room off to the side for fans 18 and older. Sounds like a strip club. There also will be no restrictions at Lincoln Financial Field limiting fans only to Fox Bet’s app.
Carlson has been with the Eagles for 18 months, coming from an 11-year stint with the Orlando Magic. She was born in Australia and got her bachelor’s degree at Deakin University in Melbourne where betting on sports is as common as an Eagles fan griping about a Carson Wentz turnover.
“There are restrictions within our league. You can’t run lines and put it on the LED [scoreboards] where kids can see it,” she said. “There’s definitely restrictions on that, and I think it’s for the right reasons. We’re taking baby steps. We want to be sure we’re doing it in a responsible manner.”
This and that
The Eagles are 4-0 straight-up, 2-2 against the spread in home openers under Doug Pederson. ... Favorites went 9-7 ATS last week and home underdogs were 3-3 against the number. ...
Last week’s records versus the spread with (virtually) no crowds/home-field advantage: favorites 9-7; underdogs 7-9; home favorites 6-4; home 'dogs 3-3; road favorites 3-3; road 'dogs 4-6.
To get an idea how blind these guys were flying early when it comes to college hoops, DraftKings on Thursday morning had Iowa at 9-1 to win the championship while FanDuel had Fran McCaffery’s team at 18-1.
And finally
Happy birthday to Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who turned 25 on Thursday. Any quarterback who goes 24-12-1 against the spread in his first 37 career starts is all right in our book.
Week 2/Thursday
Favorite Line Underdog (O/U)
BROWNS 6 Bengals (44.5), 8:20 p.m.
Sunday
Favorite Line Underdog (O/U)
EAGLES pick 'em Rams (45.5), 1 p.m.
BUCCANEERS 9 Panthers (47.5), 1 p.m.
STEELERS 7 Broncos (40.5), 1 p.m.
COWBOYS 4.5 Falcons (53), 1 p.m.
49ers 7 JETS (41.5), 1 p.m.
Bills 5.5 DOLPHINS (41), 1 p.m.
COLTS 3 Vikings (48.5), 1 p.m.
PACKERS 6 Lions (49), 1 p.m.
BEARS 5.5 Giants (42), 1 p.m.
TITANS 7.5 Jaguars (44), 1 p.m.
CARDINALS 7 Washington (46.5), 4:05 p.m.
Ravens 7 TEXANS (50), 4:25 p.m.
Chiefs 8.5 CHARGERS (47.5), 4:25 p.m.
SEAHAWKS 4 Patriots (45), 8:20 p.m.
Monday
Favorite Line Underdog (O/U)
Saints 6 RAIDERS (49.5), 8:15 p.m.