Mock NFL draft: The Eagles aren’t trying to win, again, and that will influence their strategy
Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman promised a long-term rebuild. They'll get a receiver, linebacker, safety, huge defensive lineman, and an athletic offensive lineman by the end of Friday night.
The Eagles are not trying to win. They’re not trying to lose either, exactly. They’re in a long-term rebuild, and if winning happens along the way, well, super.
The owner and the GM told us this, and they’ve been true to their word, and they’ll stay true during this week’s draft.
Jeffrey Lurie told us last winter that the team would be entering ... “a real trough, a real transition period,” and they would “retrench and rededicate.”
It was hard to believe, with aging stars coming back to a team that had been to the playoffs three of the previous four years and had won the Super Bowl after the 2017 season. How could they waste a prime year of these expensive, aging players? Then they traded Carson Wentz and started Jalen Hurts, and proved they weren’t trying to win.
Still, after sneaking into the playoffs last season, and with some of those same aging stars returning, the Birds are entering this offseason with a solid base. They also had plenty of salary cap room, as well as three first-round picks. With so many elite players dissatisfied with their situations — Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill — it seemed like a perfect scenario for the Eagles to become immediate contenders. But they passed on all of the biggest free agents and they didn’t make any blockbuster deals, which followed form.
“We’re building,” Howie Roseman explained at the owners’ meeting in March. “We’re not saying we’re putting all our chips into the middle of the table this year. We want to win. We want to have a really good team, but we also want to do the right things.”
He then traded away one of those 2022 first-round picks for more draft capital. They now have five draft picks in the first 101, which is ideal for a rebuilding team. This was the strategy that led him to draft guard Landon Dickerson in the second round last year. Dickerson’s lingering injury cost him the chance to be a top-20 pick, but the Eagles didn’t need him right away, and when he joined the lineup a month into the season, he was everything a top-20 pick should be. It was a brilliant move by Roseman.
Expect him to follow the same sort of plan in the first round Thursday and in the second and third rounds Friday.
On the board
First round, No. 15: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
He’s 6-foot-6, 340 pounds, raw, and the perfect long-term replacement for Fletcher Cox, the 31-year-old former star whom the Eagles released, then re-signed. This will be it for Fletch, and the Birds need someone with whom to pair Milton Williams, their promising third-round defensive tackle from the 2021 draft — another long-term investment that looks like it will pay off handsomely. There will be receivers, defensive backs, and linebackers on the board when they pick at No. 15, but the Birds have always built through their trenches.
First round, No. 18: Drake London, WR, USC
They’ll be tempted by the remaining corners, and they’ll salivate over buttery Ohio State pass catcher Chris Olave, but ultimately they’ll go with the 6-4, 219-pound London, who sounds like a dime-novel spy but has a frame like Terrell Owens — who, you might remember, was a third-round pick. They need size to start with slight DeVonta Smith and speedy Quez Watkins. Today, London is a sloppy route-runner who needs better footwork, but again, the Eagles are drafting with an eye toward tomorrow.
Second round, No. 51: Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
The Eagles tend to fall in love with hot schools, and no school is hotter than Georgia, thanks to its defense. If Dean’s size — he’s just 5-11 and 229 pounds — drops him into the 50s, the Eagles will snatch him. He’s a hybrid playmaker. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon loves those guys.
Third round, No. 83: Luke Goedeke, G, Central Michigan
A knee injury cost him 2020 and a hamstring injury at the Senior Bowl cost him pre-draft evaluations, which would have improved his stock. Goedeke is a former tight end, hence athletic. Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland can turn this sort of specimen into a star. The Eagles have a lot of competent linemen, but Brandon Brooks is gone and Jason Kelce is going, and you can never have too many.
Third round, No. 101: Nick Cross, S, Maryland
If the Eagles don’t take Bryan Cook from Cincinnati at No. 83 — which would be fine, since he’s a former cornerback, a vicious tackler, and a good leader — Cross will do. He’s a husky hitter who eventually will be able to cover tight ends, and the Birds will be happy to let him learn. Then again, he ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash at the NFL draft combine, so he might be long gone by 101.
Issues
No edge rusher? They just signed 27-year-old Haason Reddick ($45 million) free agent to pair with 25-year-old Josh Sweat ($42 million). They’ve got to get some mileage from these guys.
No Jameson Williams? No dual weapons from Alabama? No DeVonta Smith 2.0?
Well, yes, while Williams’ profile meets to the premise of the Eagles’ demonstrated strategy — he’s recovering from an ACL tear — he’ll be long gone by No. 15. He’ll be Wentz’s No. 2 target in Washington, taken at No. 11, playing across from Terry McLaurin — if he lasts that long. If Williams doesn’t go to D.C., expect a receiver-needy team to trade up to get him before the Eagles pick.