Thoughts and theories on Saquon Barkley, a most unusual signing by Howie Roseman and the Eagles

One year ago, I was waging a long and lonely writing campaign against the idea of drafting Texas running back Bijan Robinson. A few months later, I was extolling the Eagles’ brilliance in solving their backfield dilemma as they did: letting Miles Sanders walk, trading for D’Andre Swift, entering the season with a trio of capable backs who were combining to make less than the Panthers paid Sanders.

In both cases, the rationale was simple: It rarely makes sense to invest significant assets in a position where replacement costs are low, depreciation is high, and top-end output has less impact than other spots on the field.

Fast forward to today, where I am about to make the case that the Eagles made a wise move in signing Saquon Barkley to what will reportedly be the richest contract awarded a free-agent running back since Le’Veon Bell in 2019.

Frankly, it was difficult to type those words. Especially the words Le’Veon Bell. You remember Bell, of course. He signed a four-year, $52.5 million contract with $27 million guaranteed at the age of 27. He was out of the NFL at the age of 30. In between, the Jets got 863 rushing yards, a 3.3 yard-per-carry average, and 69 catches for 500 yards, with four total touchdowns. All this in 17 games.

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Bell probably wasn’t the only reason NFL teams spent the next four offseasons avoiding the running-back market like it was 1929 Wall Street. After all, the whole reason he held out in 2018 was that the Steelers wouldn’t pay him. Still, Bell offered a pertinent reminder of the hazards of investing heavily in a position where the aging curve is short, sudden, and steep.

Age isn’t the only concern. Rushing yards are, first and foremost, a function of run blocking. An average running back with a good offensive line can be every bit as productive as a good running back with a bad offensive line.

We saw that last year with Sanders after the Panthers gave him $13 million guaranteed, the most since Melvin Gordon’s $13.5 million guarantee from the Broncos in 2020. Sanders finished 2023 with 432 rushing yards, 837 fewer than he had for the Eagles the season before.

Thing is, running backs matter. They just happen to matter less than a lot of other positions on the field. That includes several positions that the Eagles would love to address this offseason. Which brings us to the first conclusion that we can draw from the Eagles’ decision to spend a big chunk of their disposable wad on Barkley: The players they need most aren’t there to be had.

We are still too early in the free-agent signing process to know for sure. Total (reported) dollars divided by total (reported) years means little to nothing without knowing the way the salary-cap hits are structured. Total (reported) guaranteed money can tell you little more, but not nearly enough.

That said, I think the Barkley signing indicates that the Eagles weren’t going to be able to afford safety Xavier McKinney (four years, $68 million, $25 million guaranteed) or linebacker Patrick Queen (three years, $41 million), both of whom landed with organizations that have historically placed heavy emphasis on their respective positions.

The Eagles have historically placed heavy emphasis on the defensive line. Lo and behold, they made their biggest splash on Jets edge rusher Bryce Huff, who agreed to a reported three years, $51 million with $34 million guaranteed.

Value judgments are a multivariable calculus. The simple question a general manager must ask himself: Will spending X dollars at Y position make more of an impact on my team than spending X dollars at Z position?

Part of the answer lies in evaluating the impact of the player at the position relative to his hypothetical replacement. Part of the answer lies in evaluating the impact of the position itself.

The first part is important with Barkley. Even if the Eagles deem the running back position to have less impact than others on the field, the real question is whether another player at the same dollar amount would impact another position enough to pass on the potentially significant impact that Barkley will make at running back.

Here’s an obvious example of what I mean. Former Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis agreed to a contract with the Jaguars for (reported) terms similar to Barkley. No offense to Davis, but he wouldn’t make anybody’s list of the top 20 wide receivers in the game. At a certain point, it makes total sense to opt for the elite impact, even at a less important position.

There is a caveat here, and it is an important one. Cap space rolls over in the NFL, which means that any money a team doesn’t spend is money that it can spend in the future. The Eagles didn’t just choose Barkley over the next-best option on this year’s market. They chose him over whatever players they could have signed on future markets. If the Eagles hadn’t retained James Bradberry last offseason, they theoretically could have had $7.5 more million in cap space to spend this offseason (Bradberry’s total cap hits in 2023 and 2024, according to Spotrac).

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Then again, that may be an argument for spending the money on the elite player before you. Barkley is certainly that. Forget about the numbers. He spent most of his career in New York playing behind one of the worst offenses in the game.

He may have gained only 962 yards on 247 carries in 2023, but the power and the first step were obviously there. Each time you watched him run into a crowd of bodies at the line of scrimmage, you couldn’t help but wonder what he would look like with even a competent level of run blocking.

He will look very, very good. I can almost guarantee that. You can’t often say that about a free-agent signing. His ability to catch the ball and pass-protect are unlike any the Eagles have had in their backfield in a long time. Kellen Moore’s offenses have historically featured running backs with Barkley’s power and pass-catching profile. Not only will he give Jalen Hurts a reliable outlet to turn to, the attention he draws from a defense will help open up the middle of the field.

Barkley is not Christian McCaffrey, whose body control and route-running ability are in a tier by itself. But Barkley has a skill set that sets him far apart from virtually every other NFL back. We saw the impact that can have with the Niners’ run to the Super Bowl this season.

Barkley probably won’t make that kind of difference with the Eagles — Hurts and the defense will need to do that. But when you consider the nature of this team, he is a near perfect fit.