Super Bowl prop bets: Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards, MVP and more

The line on the Super Bowl, as of Friday afternoon, was Kansas City -3. It opened at 3.5, but it seems to have settled in at 3, which is the most common spread in the NFL. More games land on a 3-point margin than any other.

In the 267 games this season, the margin was three points 38 times (14.2%). In the first 54 Super Bowls, three has been the margin six times (11.1%). Four also has hit six times.

The key for sports bettors, as long as the spread stays at Kansas City -3, is to monitor the juice (or the vig). With more sportsbooks than ever to choose from, where to place the bet is almost as important as what to bet on.

In a sampling of six area ‘books by the Inquirer, the best places to bet the Chiefs -3 is DraftKings and BetRivers, which have odds of -113. The worst places were FanDuel and William Hill, where it costs $7 more at -120.

For those who like the Buccaneers at +3 points, just turn them around. FanDuel and William Hill are tops at +100, while DK and BetRivers are -108 — an $8 difference in juice.

As always, there are thousands of ways to lose money (oops, I mean bet) on the Super Bowl. As long as the income is disposable, here are a handful of props to watch.

Super Bowl lines: BetMGM | BetRivers | DraftKings | FanDuel | PointsBet | William Hill

Again, shop around. BetMGM’s line on Mahomes’ passing yards is 329.5, but with -120 odds for over, +100 for under. William Hill’s line is 340.5 with +100 over, -130 under. An 11-yard middle — wagering over at BetMGM and under at William Hill — is tempting, but not advisable.

“Passing yards distribution varies widely so an 11-yard middle is not worth the vig you’d be laying on either side,” said Jack Andrews, a local professional sports bettor.

Mahomes has thrown for 255 and 325 yards in the Chiefs’ first two playoff games. He had 462 in the Week 12 meeting against the Bucs, and 286 in last year’s Super Bowl. He’s been held under 300 yards in five of his seven playoff games.

Andrews said in order to make an attempt at middling Mahomes’ yardage will fall between 329.5-340.5 yards — and thus winning both sides, the competing sportsbooks’ odds would have to be -110.

“If you find an 11-yard middle on a running back’s rushing yards,” Andrews added, “that’s probably worth it at -120/-130.”

» READ MORE: Vegas Vic says pick Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to repeat as Super Bowl champions against the Bucs

Good value here for folks who are on the Buccaneers. BetMGM has Tampa Bay to win the game and score over 39.5 points at +170 odds. Tampa Bay to win and under 39.5 fetches a hefty +1350. Chiefs and over 39.5 is -125. Chiefs and under 38.5 is +875.

The line here is 7.5, which feels like a lot, but beware. Each of the last three Super Bowls have had at least nine players run the ball.

Both the Chiefs and Bucs use a tandem for the heavy lifting, so that’s four players (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II). Throw in the quarterbacks who will either scramble or try a sneak on a third- or fourth-and-short, especially Tom Brady. Sprinkle in a couple wide receiver sweeps (thinking of Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown), and now you’re at eight. PointsBet’s over 7.5 is -200, under 7.5 is +150. Wish the odds were a little friendlier, but over would be the play here.

» READ MORE: Inquirer beat writers’ predictions for Super Bowl LV and MVP picks

Gill Alexander from VSIN was all over this on Friday. For folks thinking about taking Tampa Bay on the money line, which is about +140, taking Tom Brady to win MVP at +200 is probably a better gamble. If the Bucs win Sunday, Brady is likely going to be the Most Valuable Player. Consider that of the six Super Bowls he won with New England, he was the MVP four times. The other two went to wide receivers Julian Edelman and Deion Branch.

As always, bet with your head not with your heart. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you suspect a problem. They’re very helpful.