These 8 Philly schools saw big drops in enrollment post-COVID. What does that mean?

One in 12 U.S. public schools lost at least 20% of its students post-pandemic — and it was often schools with significant academic struggles that displayed the sharpest enrollment declines, according to a new analysis by the Thomas B. Fordham Institute.

That’s germane as leaders around the country, including in Philadelphia, prepare to make decisions about possible school closings.

The new analysis by the conservative-leaning think tank identified 500 historically struggling schools across the country that lost at least 20% of their enrollment, including eight in Philadelphia:

Fordham Institute officials argue that with an abundance of underutilized buildings, many of which have significant capital needs, closings are necessary.

Philadelphia’s school board last week voted to formally begin the final phase of its comprehensive school facilities master planning process, awarding $5 million worth of contracts for planning and community engagement services and directing Superintendent Tony B. Watlington Sr. to assemble a committee and start the work in earnest.

Officials have said they expect the work to take multiple years to complete.

District-run schools have space for 180,000 students, but currently have about 116,000 enrolled, meaning about 35% of seats districtwide are empty. In “Renaissance schools,” neighborhood schools run by charter companies in district-owned buildings, there’s room for 19,801 students, but 14,387 are enrolled.

Fordham chose its schools based both on enrollment lost and on designation by states as needing a “Comprehensive School Improvement plan”. CSI schools are the bottom 5% of Title I schools as measured by academic achievement, student growth, and other areas, or are schools with a graduation rate of 67% or lower. Fifty-five Philadelphia schools made that statewide list.

It then cross-checked the struggling schools list with a list of schools that lost at least 20% of their enrollment in the three years since the start of the pandemic.

Fewer students and the expiration of COVID relief funds mean that districts will have to tighten their belts, possibly in ways that affect already uneven educational quality, the report said.

School closings “are painful, politically fraught decisions, and we understand why district officials and local leaders often kick the school-closure can down the road for as long as they can,” the report states. “But many of them will eventually be forced to decide the fate of their near-empty buildings. What should inform that decision? To us, it’s clear: The foremost consideration is — within the resources available to us — what’s best for educating the students of this community?”

Fordham officials do say, however, that inclusion on the list does not mean the identified schools will or should be closed.

“There might be some schools on the list with very low test scores but strong year-to-year growth. We would consider those good schools, not bad schools,” the report says.

Also, researchers note, simply making the list does not mean a high-quality alternative exists, or take into account the physical conditions or trajectory of the individual schools.

One of the Philadelphia schools on the list, AMY at James Martin, is getting a brand-new building, for instance. (AMY at James Martin lost 45% of its students, or 195 students, between 2019-20 and 2022-23. It had 240 students in the 2022-23 year.”) Clemente already shares a building with two other schools. Wagner is attempting to build a middle-grades career and technical education program.

Fordham officials said closing schools “can be traumatic and even harmful” for students, “especially if they end up attending lower-performing campuses. Yet closing a school is beneficial when displaced students land in better alternatives. And of course, the primary purpose of most closures isn’t just to help this generation of students. It’s to ensure that innumerable future generations are well-served.”

Philadelphia leaders have not responded to the Fordham Institute analysis, but have previously stressed that no decisions have been made, and said that closings won’t happen the way they did in 2013, when dozens of schools were closed, sometimes sending students into lower-performing schools.

Multiple options will be considered, the board has said, including closings, new construction, and co-locations of schools and other city services. And multiple pieces of information will be considered as decisions are made, not just building condition, enrollment, or academic performance.

Board documents call for the district to maximize school building use, and provide more equitable prekindergarten programs, access to art and music, and career and technical education opportunities. Board officials also directed the administration to “address enrollment trends that have created financial and operational inefficiencies, identify district schools/buildings to be modernized, co-located, repurposed or closed.”