The Flyers aren’t as bad as their record. Actually, their underlying numbers are quite good.
Despite a sub-.500 record, the analytics are showing that the Flyers are playing really good hockey on the whole and have been a bit unlucky when it comes to results.
When Joel Farabee skated down the left wing and scored off the stick of Buffalo Sabres defenseman Henri Jokiharju just 55 seconds into the game on Wednesday night, there was reason to believe the Flyers’ puck luck had started to turn. That didn’t happen. Instead, when the final buzzer sounded the team had lost for the fifth time in six games.
But here’s the thing — yes, the Flyers have a record under .500 (4-5-1) and, yes, they are struggling to get out of the gate in games, but somehow they are finding another gear and staying with clubs many expected them to get blown out by.
That record and those final scores are not indicative of how this team is competing on a nightly basis and it’s something head coach John Tortorella and his staff are keying in on.
“What we need to do is just stay with it and I think that’s the most important thing,” Tortorella said following the 5-2 loss to the Sabres. “Not overthink it. Just continue to try to play the right way. And I thought for a good portion of the game we did.”
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That “good portion” of the game seems to be once Philadelphia gets past the second ice cleaning of the opening frame. The NHL’s hottest team in the first period has scored 12 of its league-leading 15 first-period goals after the 10-minute mark.
So, if you’re running late from work to the Wells Fargo Center or your TV, there’s a good chance you won’t miss much because even when the Flyers trail by a goal or two, they make things interesting. In the first 10 games of the season, Philadelphia has only trailed twice after 20 minutes and has held the lead six times.
As veteran winger Cam Atkinson said after the loss to the Sabres — who the Flyers can exact a little revenge on in Buffalo on Friday night — this team is getting “a lot of shots, a lot of Grade-A opportunities, we just have to capitalize on some of those opportunities.” He added that “they’re coming,” because that is what happens when you possess the puck for the majority of the game.
According to Evolving Hockey, at 5-on-5 the Flyers are ranked 10th in Corsi For Percentage (52.5%). That’s better than the Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild — three teams expected to vie for the Stanley Cup and whom the Flyers have a 1-1-1 record against. Compared to last season, which included an eye-appealing 5-3-2 record through 10 games, the analytics this year are showing a Flyers team on the precipice of playing a competitive, complete game every night.
Last season, the Flyers were ranked dead last in Corsi For (38%) through the first 10 games. They were No. 31 in Expected Goals Per 60 (1.94) and Expected Goals Against Per 60 (3.36) at 5-on-5. This year, the Flyers are eighth in xGF/60 at 2.93 and seventh in xGA/60 at 2.31. The Flyers rode their luck and their goaltending last season, but this time around they are driving the play.
That’s quite a turnaround for a team many expected to finish near the bottom of the league standings. The issue is amid the highs of dominant wins over the Edmonton Oilers and the Minnesota Wild, there have been blips.
Last week, the Flyers went toe-to-toe with and led the defending Stanley Cup champion Golden Knights late only to allow the winning goal with 33 seconds left in regulation. That came on the heels of another competitive loss, this one in overtime, to the Stars after a late two-goal comeback. Then there was the blowout loss to the rebuilding Anaheim Ducks and another late-game breakdown against the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday night.
Of course, there’s still a lot of runway left in the season — and the team is potentially losing No. 1 goalie Carter Hart for a stretch due to a mid-body injury sustained against the Sabres — but It does look like things are on the upswing for an organization embarking on a rebuild. Sure, the power play is sitting at 11.4% (28th) and needs to be cleaned up as guys are looking to make an extra pass. But overall, the Flyers have played exceptionally well and driven play for large stretches of time, even if in some games they haven’t been rewarded with wins.
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Wednesday night was another perfect example as the Flyers dominated the Sabres in shots (40-15), shot attempts (75-37), high-danger chances (11-4), and overall CF% (64.52%), according to Natural Stat Trick. They had their chances, like when Noah Cates had an open net at the left post but slid the puck through the crease or Garnet Hathaway shot a pass off a 2-on-1 right into Sabres goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who was excellent.
Because of that, frustration does seem to be seeping into the locker room. Now the onus falls on the bench boss to help his group of youngsters and veterans handle the ebb and flow of the season.
“That’s a big part of my job is how the mindset of a hockey team is handled,” Tortorella said. “You don’t like losing, you don’t like being in the loss column. I’ve got to handle it in the right way with them.
“We have some things to correct, and we’ll do that but I’m not going to go searching for things wrong with the team when we lose 5-2 or lose the other night. That’ll show their face plenty of times this year, when something’s really wrong with the team. Sometimes when you think you’re doing OK, you just gotta stay with it.”