Which prospects could the Flyers draft if they land pick No. 7, 8, or 9 in the lottery?
If the Flyers don't land Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli via some lottery luck, all is not lost with a guaranteed top-10 pick.
With all eyes on future superstar Connor Bedard heading into this year’s draft, let’s be honest — 31 of 32 teams aren’t getting him. Odds are the Flyers are one of those 31.
The Flyers own the seventh-best odds (6.5%) of landing the first overall pick Monday in the NHL draft lottery and securing Bedard. There’s a slightly larger glimmer of hope (6.7%) that they get the No. 2 pick (i.e. Adam Fantilli). But the Flyers’ greatest odds are that they will stay put at No. 7 (44.4%).
Thanks to draft lottery regulations introduced in 2021, teams can fall a maximum of only two spots, meaning that the Flyers could wind up with either pick No. 8 (36.5%) or No. 9 (5.6%). Drafting at Nos. 7, 8, or 9 this year could offer the rebuilding Flyers a chance at taking another upside swing after selecting forward Cutter Gauthier with the No. 5 pick last year. Gauthier, who averaged 1.16 points per game as a freshman, will return to Boston College for his sophomore season to continue his development.
» READ MORE: Landing the No. 1 pick and Connor Bedard could change everything for the rebuilding Flyers
While the disparity in potential between No. 1 and Nos. 7, 8, or 9 in this year’s draft will be stark, teams in the past have nabbed All-Star-type players in the range the Flyers will most likely be operating within. Notable seventh-overall picks over the last 15 years include former Flyer Jakub Voracek (2007), Nazem Kadri (2009), Jeff Skinner (2010), and Clayton Keller (2016).
Flyers defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen (2013), William Nylander (2014), and Zach Werenski (2015) each went eighth overall. The last time the Flyers had the seventh overall pick was in 2015, when they picked up defenseman Ivan Provorov. They picked eighth overall in 2011, adding center Sean Couturier. The Flyers have picked ninth only once, selecting Pierre Plante in 1971.
There seems to be a pretty clear-cut top five heading into next month’s scouting combine, with right winger Matvei Michkov, center/left winger Leo Carlsson, and center Will Smith likely to come off the board after Bedard and Fantilli. (There is potential that Michkov could slide given the political situation in Russia and the fact that he is signed with KHL club SKA Saint Petersburg through 2026.) However, the order in which the next tier of prospects will get drafted is less clear.
Who could be available to the Flyers in that 7-9 range? We take a look in the third and final part of our series analyzing what the Flyers might do with their first-round pick depending on the outcome of the draft lottery.
Potential Flyers targets at Nos. 7, 8, or 9
Let’s operate under the assumption that Bedard, Fantilli, Michkov, Carlsson, and Smith will not fall to the Flyers in the draft, which begins June 28. We are not taking an additional prospect out of the pool who could come off the board at No. 6 before the Flyers are likely to draft, but keep in mind that one or more of the players below may ultimately not be available at Nos. 7, 8, or 9.
There’s been plenty of top-10 buzz around Canadian winger Zach Benson, who was the leading scorer on the WHL’s best team, the Winnipeg Ice. He ranked second in the WHL in scoring among 17-year-olds with 98 points (36 goals, 62 assists) in 60 games behind only Bedard (71 goals, 143 points). At 5-foot-9 and 163 pounds, Benson is a small, energetic, and creative winger. He is also dedicated to playing with sound defensive details, which ought to entice the defense-first Flyers under coach John Tortorella. Benson played on both the top power-play and penalty-kill units for the Ice, ranking second in the WHL in shorthanded goals with six.
» READ MORE: Michigan center Adam Fantilli would be a heck of a consolation prize for the Flyers at No. 2
Speaking of undersize WHL forwards, Canadian playmaker Andrew Cristall put up impressive numbers with the Kelowna Rockets this season. The 5-10, 167-pound Cristall finished second in the WHL in goals among 17-years-olds (39) behind Bedard, even with a quadriceps contusion costing him five weeks of action. But he isn’t the most competitive player or the fastest skater, which could make for a tough adjustment given his size. He’s ranked No. 15 among North American skaters on NHL Central Scouting’s final list despite outscoring six of the eight CHL players ahead of him.
If the Flyers are on the hunt for speed, look no further than American center Oliver Moore. The 5-11, 188-pound U.S. National Team Development Program member and soon-to-be Minnesota Golden Gopher is known for his explosiveness and straightaway speed. As the program’s second-line center, he put up 31 goals and 75 points in 61 games, ranking fourth behind the NTDP’s decorated top line of Smith, Gabe Perreault, and Ryan Leonard.
On the topic of Leonard, he is also likely to come off the board in the first round and could be of interest to the Flyers. If Moore stands out for his speed, Leonard is best known for his strength. The 6-foot, 192-pound Boston College recruit (i.e., Gauthier’s future teammate) is competitive in puck battles and hard to knock off the puck. He played right wing this season alongside fellow BC recruits Smith and Perreault, finishing third on the NTDP team in scoring (51 goals and 94 points in 57 games). Leonard is also capable of playing center.
Canadian center Brayden Yager of the Moose Jaw Warriors plays hard and with speed while measuring in at just 5-11 and 166 pounds. He was the No. 3 pick in the 2020 WHL bantam draft and the CHL rookie of the year for the 2021-22 season (34 goals in 63 games as a 16-year-old). While his greatest asset is his shot, a trait that the Flyers may covet, he put up just 28 goals in 67 games this year. One of the biggest questions surrounding Yager is if he’ll stay at center when he transitions to the NHL, given his size.
Slovak center/right winger Dalibor Dvorský is the third-ranked European skater by Central Scouting behind Michkov and Carlsson. He has been playing primarily in Sweden since he was 9 years old and spent the majority of this season playing in the Allsvenskan, Sweden’s second-tier league. At 6-1, 201 pounds., Dvorský has been touted for his vision and his two-way game, valuable traits to the Flyers. He has been knocked for his lack of speed.
Czech right winger Eduard Šalé finished right behind Dvorský in the Central Scouting rankings. Šalé, who is 6-2 and 174 pounds, is gifted with the puck, especially as a passer. He played in the top Czech men’s league this season, so his numbers aren’t all that impressive (seven goals and seven assists in 43 games), which is not uncommon for active NHL players who previously played in the Extraliga. But Šalé's main concern is his lack of aggressiveness away from the puck, so the Flyers would have to be confident that they could help in that area.
Regardless of whom the Flyers select should they pick at No. 7, 8, or 9, the player is unlikely to make the transition to the NHL immediately. While a selection like Bedard or Fantilli would accelerate the Flyers’ rebuild given their NHL readiness, the skaters discussed here will need time to develop and mature. The Flyers aren’t in win-now mode, so a longer readiness timeline shouldn’t be a problem.
Bedard could become a generational talent and Fantilli has the potential to become an elite NHL player. But in the range that the Flyers are most likely to draft in the first round, these players have top- and middle-of-the-lineup potential. Ultimately, the Flyers aren’t looking for who can make the most immediate impact — their priority will be to identify a player who can be a consistent contributor in the long term.
» READ MORE: The NHL draft lottery offers the Flyers a rare chance at landing a franchise-altering star