This homestand will go a long way in determining whether the Flyers will remain in playoff contention

The Flyers have officially reached a crossroads.

While almost nobody predicted the “rebuilding” Orange and Black to be 19-13-5 and in playoff contention near the midway point of the season, that is where the Flyers stand on Jan. 3. But after a 5-2 loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday night, the team’s fifth defeat in six games, where do the Flyers go from here?

Have the Flyers just hit a rough patch amid a difficult portion of the schedule? Or are larger cracks beginning to show ahead of what seemed like an inevitable decline given the team’s roster limitations?

» READ MORE: Takeaways from the Flyers’ 5-2 loss to Connor McDavid and the Oilers

The next seven days will go a long way in helping answer those questions the Flyers embark on a four-game homestand against four teams outside of playoff position, beginning Thursday against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Just six points separate second and seventh place in the Metropolitan Division. The Flyers, who occupy the top wild-card spot based on points and the second spot based on points percentage, need to capitalize on this run of games on home ice.

The Flyers’ three-game losing streak has many fans anticipating the worst. The wounds are still fresh from the 2021-22 collapse when the Flyers lost a franchise-record 13 straight games from Dec. 30 to Jan. 28. Even last year’s Flyers were at hockey .500 as late as Feb. 11, before limping to a 9-16-3 finish and the NHL’s seventh-worst record. So Flyers fans have seen this story before.

Also considering that the Flyers were picked by most to be among the bottom five teams in the league entering the season, it is hard to blame fans for not believing in them. President Keith Jones and general manager Danny Brière preached patience in the offseason, as the organization owned its past missteps and acknowledged for the first time that it was rebuilding.

With a forward group that lacks top-of-the-line game-breakers — no offense to Travis Konecny, who is on pace for 40 goals — and a defense absent of big names and full of question marks entering the season, the Flyers have far exceeded expectations to this point. They have done it by outworking their opponents, riding strong goaltending from Carter Hart and Sam Ersson, and with different guys popping up as heroes each night.

But with a limited roster featuring so many young and streaky players, all while playing such a demanding and physically taxing style under John Tortorella, it is fair to ask if the Flyers can keep up what has been a pleasantly surprising start. Tortorella himself has repeatedly dismissed questions referencing the playoffs throughout the season.

“When this league gets going at the end of Christmas and after the holiday, that’s when the grind starts coming in,” Tortorella said recently. “If we think we’re going to be this high-flying transition team, spreading and stretching and not forechecking, we’re in for a rude awakening.”

Jones and Brière have remained steadfast that the rebuild will take time, and that they can’t get carried away by the team’s early success.

“The immediate future is just to continue to grow and continue to play with the type of spirit that we’ve played with so far this season,” Jones told The Inquirer at the end of November. “Those are all really positive things. But also keeping a close eye and focus on the future — and that is threading the needle in some aspects.

“We want to be a contending team, not just for the playoffs. ... We want to contend for Stanley Cups for a long time.”

While the Flyers’ advanced metrics in terms of puck possession (17th in Corsi) and expected goals percentage (11th) rank around the middle of pack, they have little margin for error, especially given that they own the league’s worst power play (10.2%). That razor-thin margin for error has played itself out in a lot of close games. This season, the Flyers are 7-5-5 in one-goal games, meaning 46% of their games have been decided by a single goal. The Flyers have a .560 points percentage in those games.

This is all to say that there is a realistic scenario in which a few of things that have been going the Flyers’ way — health, close games, a regression to the mean — will lead to them slipping below more talented teams like New Jersey, Washington, and Pittsburgh, all of which entered the season with playoff expectations. If that happens over the next few weeks, there likely also will be subtraction, with players like Sean Walker, Nick Seeler, and Morgan Frost as trade candidates. If the Flyers are out of the playoff mix, moving a couple of key players likely would aid them in securing the highest draft picks possible for June.

In recent years, the Flyers organization, both on and off the ice, has hardly earned the benefit of the doubt, but maybe this season’s team has.

Under Tortorella, the Flyers have been competitive in almost every game and have played with an effort and togetherness that fans can be proud of. While the names on the roster might not jump off the page, there seems to be a different vibe to this team, with players willing to do whatever it takes for one another.

“We’ve worked a lot on coming together and building something special and guys are buying in, and we’ve just got to keep building, start believing in ourselves,” Sean Couturier said on Dec. 8. “I think we’re out to try to prove people wrong, and there doesn’t seem to be much pressure on us. So I don’t know if we’re just naive or young, but we just go out and play hard and aggressive hockey, and, yeah, I think we’re building something special here.”

Belief and togetherness can be powerful things, especially in such a team-oriented sport like hockey. The Flyers are on pace for 95 points, which would be right around the playoff cut line. Last year, 92 points was good enough for the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot.

This is also not the first time this Flyers team has had to respond to adversity. The Flyers lost five of six earlier this season but then reeled off a five-game winning streak. They also navigated some tricky stretches without Hart because of injury and illness, going 6-3-1 across two spells without their No. 1 netminder. Even amid the team’s current three-game losing streak, the Flyers led the Seattle Kraken into the third period and still managed a point, were tied entering the third in a one-goal loss to the Calgary Flames on New Year’s Eve, and battled back to a 2-2 tie on Tuesday before surrendering a power-play goal in the final minute of the second period.

While the team hasn’t played as consistently in recent games, getting three points out of eight on a tough western swing right out of the holiday break is hardly the worst result. Now it is up to the Flyers to bounce back at home and prove they are different than the teams of recent years that have faded quickly after the turn of the calendar. Tortorella won’t admit it, but If they do so it would be a major signal that this team is in it for the long haul.

» READ MORE: As the Flyers rebuild continues, here are four things fans can look forward to in 2024