Should the Flyers trade Ivan Provorov? Here’s what a potential deal could look like.

Since the day he took over, John Tortorella has been clear that shaping the future of the Flyers organization is as much about figuring out who won’t be a part of things as who will. And according to trade rumors that surfaced Tuesday, there’s a chance Ivan Provorov might not be a part of the Flyers’ long-term plans.

According to a report by Sportsnet, the Flyers are open to conversations about trading Provorov.

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That’s not to say a potential move will be instigated by Tortorella, who has praised Provorov at points this season. It’s also no certainty that Provorov will be moved at all.

However, with the recent buzz around Provorov, here’s a breakdown of his situation and what a trade for the defenseman might look like:

The Flyers have spent the last few offseasons trying to find the perfect player to complement Provorov on the top pair. Not only have they failed to find the right partner, but Provorov himself has shown he might not be right for the top pairing.

His progression has not gone as the Flyers would have expected after his 17-goal season as a 21-year-old in 2018. While he’s still only 25, the team has had 500-plus games to evaluate him. This season, Provorov has two goals, 15 points, a team-high 99 blocked shots, and is minus-8. Sure, his offensive production has been limited partly by a decrease in power-play time, but the fact remains that he has failed to take the next step the organization envisioned him making.

Additionally, Provorov might not be the right fit for the locker room. Last season, there were multiple occasions when he failed to take accountability with his teammates and the media after making mistakes, which didn’t sit well with members of the organization. The defenseman also has shown frustration with the team’s struggles and could push for a change of scenery and a fresh start.

If the team is, in fact, rebuilding, Provorov, who has two years left after this season at a $6.75 million salary-cap hit, might be worth shopping for prospects and/or draft picks. Outside of James van Riemsdyk, whose contract expires at the end of the year, Provorov is one of the only assets the Flyers have that could net a major return.

Provorov is an unusual player on the Flyers in that he logs major minutes (23 minutes, 10 seconds per night) and does so without breaking down.

While he struggled mightily last season, the team did as a whole. His steadier performance this season reflects the team’s improvement, which begs the question: How much can his struggles be attributed to him and how much are they a product of a bad situation? Provorov has not played with a true top-pair partner since the departure of Matt Niskanen in 2020, so the team might want to see if anything else, like playing with Cam York (like he is now), can reignite Provorov’s offense.

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While Provorov still shows flashes of offense, he hasn’t consistently produced like he did early in his career and can be mistake-prone. However, he plays a ton of minutes, blocks shots, brings a physical element, and plays with a competitiveness that suits Tortorella’s brand of hockey.

Just as important as what Provorov brings on the ice is what a potential buyer brings to the table, Brian Lawton, an NHL Network analyst and the former general manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning, pointed out. Lawton predicts it will be a buyer’s market this year, so, as sellers, the Flyers might not receive offers sweet enough to justify trading a guy they’ve relied on heavily.

“You better have a return that works, philosophically, with what you’re trying to accomplish,” Lawton said.

In other words, the Flyers shouldn’t trade Provorov just to trade him. They need to bring back assets that make trading the Russian defenseman worthwhile.

Potential buyers will want to try and identify how much of Provorov’s struggles stem from himself vs. his environment, Lawton said. Is he still the player he was a few years ago? Would a change of scenery get him back on track?

They also will look at his contract, and the fact that he’s locked in for two more years at $6.75 million. It’s a reasonable deal, Lawton said, made more enticing by the term remaining. Provorov wouldn’t be a rental, and, at 25, he’s young enough that he still might have some upside.

He likely would have value for a contender looking to bolster its top four because while he’s not a true No. 1 defenseman, he’s definitely a solid top-four blueliner. On a deeper team, it’s not crazy to envision Provorov flourishing on a second pair in a role where he no longer has to be “the guy.”

While Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun is the top defenseman expected to be available at the trade deadline — at a steep price — things get a lot more muddled after him. Provorov likely would fit into that next tier which includes Mattias Ekholm, Cam Fowler, Brandon Montour, and rentals like John Klingberg and Shayne Gostisbehere.

“The value is not universal across the league for him,” Lawton said. “The value is different for every team. ... You [the Flyers] are looking for that one team that needs him to push their club over the top.”

A recent trade that immediately comes to Lawton’s mind when evaluating a potential Provorov deal is the Hampus Lindholm trade from last season.

Anaheim’s decision to send Lindholm, 28, to the Boston Bruins serves as an example of what the Flyers could expect and a cautionary tale. The Ducks traded Lindholm in exchange for young defenseman Urho Vaakanainen, John Moore’s contract, a 2022 first-round pick, and second-round picks in 2023 and 2024.

It was a big haul and it’s still too early to tell how the picks will help the Ducks, but it’s clear the Bruins won in the short term. Lindholm, who had 22 points at the time of the trade last season, already has 28 points this year and is on pace to shatter his career high of 34. He has emerged as a legitimate Norris Trophy candidate and has been lauded for his defending and puck-moving ability in Boston.

The Flyers have to be careful that what they get back is good enough to offset the possibility that Provorov thrives with another organization, Lawton said.

Evaluating both the market and the differences between Lindholm and Provorov, Lawton said the Flyers shouldn’t trade Provorov for less than a first-round pick. In addition to that, he said they should receive two more pieces that they feel great about before they decide to part ways with Provorov.

The Flyers certainly don’t need to trade Provorov before the March 3 deadline, but they should at least be listening to offers for the defenseman, especially given the team’s need to accumulate assets for the future.