The Flyers seem to be starting 2024 first-rounder Jett Luchanko in the NHL. Is that a mistake?

When the Flyers ushered in their “New Era of Orange” in May of 2023, governor Dan Hilferty, general manager Danny Brière, and president Keith Jones preached patience as the organization embarked on its rebuild.

“It will take time. So be patient with us,” Hilferty said that May. “But know that our goal is singular, to deliver a championship or more and to be the envy of the NHL.”

In the 16 months since, the organization’s four major decision makers, including head coach John Tortorella, have continued to push the patience narrative, repeatedly dumping cold water on suggestions that the team is ahead of schedule, with Tortorella getting vexed at even the slightest mention of the word playoffs.

That brings us to 2024 first-rounder Jett Luchanko and how the organization is handling his development this fall. Will the Flyers stick to their long-term approach and remain patient with the prospect, or will Luchanko’s speed and ability prove too tempting not to utilize with the big club from Day 1? Here’s a breakdown of where things stand with the speedy rookie as training camp comes to an end.

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Traditionally, teenagers drafted in the middle of the first round don’t start in the NHL. These prospects either need more seasoning or lack physical maturity and often return to juniors or play college hockey for a season or two before making the jump to the show. When the Flyers traded back a spot and surprisingly announced Luchanko as the 13th overall selection in June, the assumption was the centerman would return to the Ontario Hockey League and play another season for the Guelph Storm.

Not only was Luchanko still 17 and one of the youngest players in the draft, but also there was a ton of variance on him as a prospect. The selection sparked a general reaction of bewilderment, as many draft prognosticators didn’t have Luchanko being picked until the 20s, while the Flyers had passed on a consensus top-10 prospect entering the draft in University of Denver defenseman Zeev Buium at pick No. 12. So Luchanko would participate in development camp in July, rookie camp in September, and then get a taste of main training camp before packing his bags for Guelph, right? Not exactly.

Then came two strong camps from the youngster while playing alongside fellow prospects, with Luchanko’s scintillating speed consistently popping in drills and scrimmages. He carried that momentum into main camp against the established NHL guys, not only showcasing his wheels but also a responsible 200-foot game that quickly endeared him to Tortorella, a coach who harps on the smaller details away from the puck.

After an impressive preseason debut with two assists and a near-goal against Washington on Sept. 22, the idea of Luchanko sticking around, at least temporarily, started to seem plausible. On Sept. 25, the Flyers announced their first round of cuts, highlighted by the departures of five Canadian Hockey League-based players. Luchanko was notably not among the subtractions. That day at practice Tortorella stoked the “Luchanko might actually make the team” fire.

“We have that conversation,” Tortorella said. “I don’t know where I fall in that conversation, but if I feel that he kept on going and kept on going, I’m always going to be honest with Danny and Jonesy as far as what I feel about the player.”

Tortorella looks to have gotten his wish as Luchanko survived the Flyers’ last major round of cuts on Friday. With the Flyers roster now at the maximum 23 players, barring any unforeseen moves ahead of Monday’s 5 p.m. deadline, it looks as if Luchanko will be in the lineup on Oct. 11 in Vancouver.

To start, full credit to Luchanko for even making this a question with less than a week until the season opener. Nobody saw this coming when he was drafted in June, and his hard work and strong performances have given Tortorella, Brière, and the rest of the Flyers brass something to stew over.

Tortorella’s comments throughout camp suggested that if it was solely his choice — Brière & Co. had to consider other factors beyond whether he’s ready to play in the NHL — he would keep Luchanko, at least for the start of the season. As a coach, you want your best players accessible and Tortorella has played Luchanko with NHL regulars all camp and seems to envision him slotting in as the team’s third-line center.

At practice Friday, Luchanko centered Joel Farabee and Bobby Brink, two players who are locks for the plane to British Columbia next week. Luchanko’s speed is an especially enticing trait for Tortorella, who has said on more than one occasion during training camp that the Flyers need to play faster to take the next step as a team. It’s hard not to get excited by the thought of Luchanko playing in the Flyers’ transition-style game, which seems perfectly tailored to his elite speed.

“Luchanko has impressed us right from Day 1 with his skating, just his maturity, as far as his play away from the puck,” Tortorella said after Tuesday’s preseason loss to Boston. “He made some really good plays tonight, struggled in some other areas. It’s a good test for some of these kids.”

Linemate Farabee heaped similar praise on the young centermen:

“I’ve been impressed with him and Matvei [Michkov], just how mature they play,” Farabee said Sept. 25. “Jett, you can see, as a center, it’s not easy to step into an NHL game even if it’s just preseason and play with NHL guys. He’s done a really good job, in my opinion, of just being responsible and letting his instincts take over. He’s not thinking too much.”

While Luchanko came out like gangbusters in his preseason debut, his other preseason performances were far less notable. Luchanko didn’t record a point in three games after his two-assist debut and he was less effective both offensively and based on puck possession metrics — his Corsi For Percentage (CF%), which measures the share of the shots when a particular player is on the ice, is just 31% over that span.

While Luchanko is a faster skater than some of the Flyers’ other centers, he has not dramatically outplayed Sean Couturier and Morgan Frost in recent games, while Ryan Poehling, another one of the team’s centers, is one of the fastest skaters in the NHL and brings versatility and experience. The Flyers also have veterans Scott Laughton and Noah Cates as other options down the middle.

So Luchanko certainly has had a strong camp, but he has tapered off a bit. It has been a positive few months for the teen, but at this point in his career, I can’t say he’s definitively better than any of the Flyers’ four incumbents down the middle, not to mention he would have to be significantly better to justify playing all year in the NHL grind. By keeping him through Friday’s cuts, the Flyers at least want to find out if Luchanko can be an exception to the rule.

I see three main risks with Luchanko’s breaking camp with the Flyers.

First, the Flyers need to commit to a maximum of nine games and hold firm to that plan. Players who are 18 and 19 are allowed to play nine NHL games before triggering the first full year of their entry-level contracts. If a player plays in a 10th game, his contract is no longer eligible to slide back a year. In theory, there isn’t too much harm in giving Luchanko nine games to see what he has and get his feet wet in the NHL before going back to juniors. It would be a nice reward for Luchanko, and also help the Flyers truly gauge how close they believe he is to being an NHL contributor.

But the Flyers can’t afford to lose sight of the long-term plan and get carried away with Luchanko no matter how well he plays over those nine games. Even if he lights it up, Luchanko’s development is likely best served by returning to juniors and dominating offensively.

Luchanko has only one season under his belt as a key offensive contributor for Guelph, and his stats of 20 goals and 54 assists in 68 games, albeit on a mediocre Storm team, were hardly eye-popping by OHL standards.

The end goal for Luchanko is to become a top-two NHL center and he needs to continue to develop with the puck both as a playmaker and when it comes to converting more of his chances into goals if he is to achieve that ceiling. Those offensive reps, as well as more space and freedom, would come much easier as a topline player in the OHL compared with playing on the third line with the Flyers.

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Another risk is health. Is the 5-foot-11, 180-pounder truly ready to absorb the hits and hold up to the wear and tear that comes with being an NHL center? While Luchanko is a strong kid who physically is ahead of most of the players his age, he’ll be giving up 20-30 pounds to a lot of NHL centermen.

Luchanko saw firsthand the difference between being a strong kid in junior and an established NHL center when going up against Boston’s Charlie Coyle (6-3, 218) and Elias Lindholm (6′1, 202) on Tuesday. The Flyers are impressed by Luchanko’s strength and fitness, with Tortorella classifying him as someone in “elite condition.” But Luchanko’s own former Guelph teammate Matthew Poitras provided a cautionary tale for playing teenagers too early just last season. Poitras, who surprisingly made the Bruins rather than returning to juniors, had his rookie season ended after 33 games due to shoulder surgery.

Connor Bedard (14 games, broken jaw), Adam Fantilli (33 games, calf laceration), Leo Carlsson (20 games, leg, knee, and concussion), and Zach Benson (nine games, lower body), the only four 2023 draftees to start the year in the NHL, also all missed time with injuries last season.

Lastly, the nine-game NHL stint could unintentionally derail what is a vital development season for Luchanko. There’s a solid argument that missing OHL camp and joining Guelph late might not be the best thing for a guy who is looking to build some momentum, take another step offensively, and push to make the Canadian World Junior team.

Can Luchanko maintain the same motivation and intensity in juniors if he is dropped down from the NHL? If he returns to juniors, the Flyers will want Luchanko to look for opportunities to generate offense and play with some calculated risk. Yet, going from a bottom-six, “make the simple play” role with the Flyers back to a top-of-the-lineup, offensive juggernaut with Guelph might not be as easy as flicking a switch.

The Flyers leadership group has said the goal is to build a team that can compete for Stanley Cups and not just make the playoffs. They’ve also been open that they are nowhere near that point yet, with Tortorella reiterating Tuesday that “we are still building” and “have so much [expletive] to do with our team before we even start talking about [competing for a Stanley Cup].”

Given where they’re at in the rebuilding process, the Flyers have no reason to force it beyond nine games with Luchanko.

Benson, who is smaller than Luchanko at 5-10, 180 pounds, played 71 games as a middle-six winger last season with the Sabres after being the 13th overall selection in last year’s draft. He tallied 11 goals and 19 assists in a solid but unspectacular season, with the added caveat that he was coming off a dominant junior campaign — 36 goals and 98 points in 60 games for Winnipeg of the Western Hockey League — which played a major role in Buffalo’s decision to keep him past the nine-game mark.

In 2022, only two of that year’s draft picks, No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovský of Montreal (four goals, six assists in 39 games), and No. 4 pick Shane Wright of Seattle (one goal, one assist in eight games), began the season in the NHL. Both players’ well-documented struggles added further credence to the philosophy that more often than not it is better to be patient and yield on the side of caution when it comes to bringing along young players.

The 6-3, 225-pound Slafkovský rebounded in Year 2 with a 20-goal season while Wright has yet to find his feet with the Kraken. A year earlier, center Cole Sillinger, the 12th overall pick in 2021, had a solid rookie season with 16 goals and 15 assists in 79 games for Columbus, while San Jose winger William Eklund (No. 7 overall) and Anaheim center Mason McTavish (No. 3 overall) both got nine-game auditions before reporting to the AHL — Eklund at 20 was not eligible for the slide rule — and junior, respectively. Poitras, Sillinger, and McTavish are probably the best recent comparables for Luchanko as teenage centers who started in the NHL.

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Luchanko won’t be the first Flyer in recent memory to go right from the draft to the home locker room of the Wells Fargo Center either. Nolan Patrick, whose career would be derailed by injuries, posted totals of 13 goals and 17 assists in 73 games after he was the No. 2 pick in 2017. Scott Laughton, the 20th pick in 2012, went pointless in five games to begin the lockout-delayed 2013 season before returning to junior.

Last but not least, current captain Sean Couturier, who was drafted eighth overall in 2011, played a bottom-six role with a playoff Flyers team during his draft plus one year. Couturier, who was kept by head coach Peter Laviolette because of his defensive acumen, managed 13 goals and 14 assists in 77 games. Some will argue the move to keep Couturier, while helping the Flyers in the short term, stunted his offensive development individually, as Couturier wouldn’t break the 20-goal or 40-point plateaus until he was 25 years old and in his seventh NHL season.

These examples will all be data points to reference regarding Luchanko ahead of Monday’s roster deadline.