Surging Flyers have reversed their past overtime and shootout misfortunes

With less than two minutes remaining in overtime against the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday night, Owen Tippett picked Luke Hughes’ pocket in the offensive zone and walked in to snipe the game-winner past Vitek Vaněček.

A sequence that might have been surprising to see last season has become almost commonplace in 2023-24. The Flyers (18-10-3), who are riding a nine-game point streak, have needed extra time in six games during that span. And, more often than not, they’re winning those games.

The Flyers have a 6-3 record in overtime and shootouts this year. They’ve already collected more wins than all of last season, when they were 5-13 beyond regulation.

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“I think it’s just the belief we have in the room and the guys that we have, and we’re all fighting for one another and it’s who we have in this room. It could be anyone on any given night,” Tippett said Tuesday.

Including Tuesday’s win, five of the Flyers’ “extra-time” victories have come against Metropolitan Division opponents. With the Eastern Conference separated by the slimmest of margins, the six extra points the Flyers earned with each of their wins have them in second place in the Metro. If each of those Flyers wins was flipped to a loss, the Flyers would instead be second to last in their division, and firmly out of a playoff spot.

That was pretty much the story of last season — by the end of December 2022, the Flyers had played eight games that went past regulation, and lost seven of them. They also ultimately finished second to last in the division.

“It’s huge. I don’t think anyone really expected us to be doing this well,” Tippett said. “... It’s a lot of fun when you’re winning. And we all want the same end goal. And like I said, there’s just a lot of belief, and we don’t quit.”

Before Tippett’s goal, Sean Couturier had the Flyers’ previous two overtime game-winning goals. Expectations were tempered for the veteran entering the season with him coming off multiple back surgeries, but he has consistently come up clutch. Couturier is personally responsible for three points in the standings, across both overtime and the shootout.

The 31-year-old leads all Flyers forwards in time on ice, averaging 19 minutes, 49 seconds. But he still somehow has gas in the tank even after regulation has ended.

Statistically, though, the Flyers have been over-performing in overtime this season. During three-on-three situations, scoring chances are largely tilted in their opponent’s favor. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Flyers have had 18 scoring chances, while the opposing teams have collectively racked up 29.

However, a higher proportion of the Flyers’ scoring chances have been classified as high-danger (nine), compared to their opponents’ (10).

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The Flyers have an expected goals for of 1.57 during three-on-three overtime in 2023-24, which is actually less than last season, when they had an xGF of 1.77. On the other hand, their defense has improved; their current expected goals against of 2.07 is better than last year’s 2.87.

Luck is certainly a part of it. But it also helps that Sam Ersson has emerged as a rock-solid goaltending option since November, particularly in high-pressure situations.

With starter Carter Hart sidelined with periodic illness, Ersson has played five games out of the Flyers’ nine-game point streak, including the last four. Six of his starts this season have gone to overtime, and he has backstopped the Flyers through all three of their shootouts, where he is undefeated.

“He’s a real confident kid anyway,” coach John Tortorella said. “The thing that’s impressed me about him is when he was struggling early on, he owned it. He talked about how disappointed he was in his play. And basically, it was both saying, ‘I’m going to play better.’ And he has. Each start that he gets, he looks bigger to me. ... In the third period, overtime, he makes some great saves to keep it tight, so we have a chance to win it.”

Tortorella has historically disagreed with the concept of the shootout in the NHL. He would have had plenty of reason to complain if he was the Flyers’ coach in 2021-22, when the Flyers scored one goal in 20 attempts in the shootout. Since that season, the Flyers have built a reputation of being awful in the shootout — even though they were 2-1 last year — but it’s time to face it. Things have changed.

The Flyers are 3-0 in the shootout this season. In addition to Couturier, rookies Bobby Brink and Tyson Foerster have injected new life into the Flyers’ shootout lineup, and are each responsible for a game-winning goal.

The Flyers announced Wednesday that goaltender Cal Petersen has been loaned back to the Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Petersen, 29, served as the backup to Ersson on Tuesday with Hart sick.